Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2792 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading Rules for die-hards... 47 replies

Trading Systems work for 6-12 mnths then die? 14 replies

5 Rules to Trade or Die By 5 replies

Trading Live Against The Beast--Gbd/Jpy--(Do Or Die)-- 3 replies

die young 8 replies

Attachments: Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout
Exit Attachments

Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #55,821
  • Jan 20, 2021 8:18am Jan 20, 2021 8:18am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Some bank accounts come complete with non digital key {image}
Highly technical !
  • #55,822
  • Jan 20, 2021 8:22am Jan 20, 2021 8:22am
It does respect the t/l - know Lem isn't a fan but it's surprising how often it goes back there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD(£)H1.png Size: 82 KB
  • #55,823
  • Jan 20, 2021 8:34am Jan 20, 2021 8:34am
Quoting claudia1
It does respect the t/l - know Lem isn't a fan but it's surprising how often it goes back there. {image}
I do like a Russian Fork to show a trend line break.
  • #55,824
  • Jan 20, 2021 8:39am Jan 20, 2021 8:39am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I do like a Russian Fork to show a trend line break.
What on earth is a Russian Fork ? Got horsies in town later worth a look.
  • #55,825
  • Edited 9:06am Jan 20, 2021 8:46am | Edited 9:06am
Quoting birdland
{quote} i would like to add i have to be more selective, because i dont hedge/counter. so its a different starting point.
Selective is good if you still have other things to trade.

My experience so far with countering is that it makes absolute no difference for me so far than taking the loss and trade the next setup. For sure this kind of risk to reward then making it unprofitable booking in 20 Pips losses (depending on the range) compared to 5 Pip wins.

But i said this many times, they say the clues are here, I don’t see them so far, I may have to pay people for better clues :-)

For example I countered (locked-in) yesterday’s fail and it’s still floating at -19 Pips the time I write that „loss“ even increased due to swap, yesterday I was locked in at -$630, right now it is -$660, the long is +$1560, the short is -$2170 or so.

So i wonder how Billy or the others trading this then coming out positive with locking-in those fails.

When it comes to some more details probably making the difference, people are suddenly very silent. I still have no clear answer yet where the real advantage lies in locking-in these fails, for me this seems to be more like a psychological thing, so you delaying the loss.

If you fixed it with new trades you could have same as good closed it right away? I mean if that new setup/entry you take then compensates for it, fine, so why doing that hedge then and even throw extra money at the broker for holding it open all the time.

Not to forget the trade to „fix“ then needs if you trade the same size already make a +19 Pips now instead +5 to be break even again, but with 19 you don’t trade of the stats any longer.

Did not trade today. Trade safe all.
  • #55,826
  • Jan 20, 2021 8:46am Jan 20, 2021 8:46am
Quoting claudia1
It does respect the t/l - know Lem isn't a fan but it's surprising how often it goes back there. {image}
Hi Claudia, hope you are well. I just noticed your DP is different to standard, I get 1.3615 for today?

Cheers
  • #55,827
  • Jan 20, 2021 8:52am Jan 20, 2021 8:52am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Hi Claudia, hope you are well. I just noticed your DP is different to standard, I get 1.3615 for today? Cheers
Maybe the broker you use isn't UK based ? Just calculated mine manually it is right. That said a few pips here and there don't matter.
  • #55,828
  • Jan 20, 2021 9:06am Jan 20, 2021 9:06am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} What on earth is a Russian Fork ? Got horsies in town later worth a look.
It's a version of a trend line that uses fractals to calculate changes in trend direction.
  • #55,829
  • Jan 20, 2021 9:09am Jan 20, 2021 9:09am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Maybe the broker you use isn't UK based ? Just calculated mine manually it is right. That said a few pips here and there don't matter.
They are UK based and use 5 NY Close Daily candles so that's why it may be different, but 9 pips is a bit.. hence it caught my attention.

Good call BTW!
  • #55,830
  • Jan 20, 2021 9:45am Jan 20, 2021 9:45am
Quoting Avery
{quote} Selective is good if you still have other things to trade. My experience so far with countering is that it makes absolute no difference for me so far than taking the loss and trade the next setup. For sure this kind of risk to reward then making it unprofitable booking in 20 Pips losses (depending on the range) compared to 5 Pip wins. But i said this many times, they say the clues are here, I don’t see them so far, I may have to pay people for better clues :-) For example I countered (locked-in) yesterday’s fail and it’s still floating at...
Hi Avery, I mean no offence but I notice you have been toiling away at this approach for some considerable time but clearly to no avail. One hopes that the figures you allude to in your post are not real sums of money but merely "demo trade" money. Perhaps it is time for you to close this chapter, on what is clearly a disastrous trading adventure for you, in your futile attempts to master this particular trading approach. It could be a time for reflection and to consider another trading approach more suitable to your ability and inclinations. Good luck in your continuing search in an unforgiving financial environment.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #55,831
  • Jan 20, 2021 12:19pm Jan 20, 2021 12:19pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Hi Avery, I mean no offence but I notice you have been toiling away at this approach for some considerable time but clearly to no avail. One hopes that the figures you allude to in your post are not real sums of money but merely "demo trade" money. Perhaps it is time for you to close this chapter, on what is clearly a disastrous trading adventure for you, in your futile attempts to master this particular trading approach. It could be a time for reflection and to consider another trading approach more suitable to your ability and inclinations....
I am doing good at trading the BillyBar and trading at all but thanks. Quiet tripled my account since beginning of 2020. I do not like demo trading too much as this totally leaves out the psychological side. I have no problem risking money otherwise i wouldn't be here?

Why should i close a chapter that is obviously working for me but lacks of certain details / knowledge. So you mean like giving up on it? Doing system hopping again before mastering something so in 2-3 years so i do know 3-5% more on a dozens of other methods/systems but actually gained NO knowledge at all that will help be to become consistently profitable following/sticking to some approach and improving on it.

You know i am just in my early 30s, time and money both isn´t my problem. I started with doing my own businesses at the age of 19. Since then i am self-employed and i am involved in all kind of stuff.

I want to treat trading as a business, seriously. "Locking-in" a trade here without having a plan to come out of it profitable for sure is no option? This is what mean, i don´t want to gamble, if this pays off over the long great, so i can expect those fails as a cost of doing business, however this doesn't pay of in the end, i provided some examples already. Even with a 90% win rate on the BillyBar without knowing how to fix for those fails this will lead to perhaps break even at the end of the month at best.

So this is why i am here. People here told me i would see the advantage in testing out my self holding trades "locked-in" and go from there. But I could´t see the advantage so i asked some basic questions? Asking the "pros" here doing this obviously with great success for some help. Thats all.

It seems to be very hard to answer a few simple questions i have on that countering. I know its much easier/chilling to see the winning trades posted and leaving the illusion of consist success but when it comes to some real questions how to actually get there you always get blamed for it in some way for doing so, really frustrating.

I already heard that this is no teaching/system thread so all good. Please provide some real help i can work with instead of the usual feedback you get on trading forums, i am at some point where i would even pay for help lol, just saying...

  • #55,832
  • Jan 20, 2021 12:52pm Jan 20, 2021 12:52pm
Quoting MichaelG
Like waiting for paint to dry sometimes lol. +4 on the 2h range after NY close. {image}
Hi Michael. Good to see these range breaks are working for you. I have noticed that you tend to aim for 4-6 pips normally which is fine as it makes it easier to hit your target. But what about your risk? Are you making your SL the other side of the range? If yes, does that mean in the event of a failed trade, you would aim for more pips on the opposite break? Thanks.
  • #55,833
  • Jan 20, 2021 1:07pm Jan 20, 2021 1:07pm
Quoting Avery
{quote} I am doing good at trading the BillyBar and trading at all but thanks. Quiet tripled my account since beginning of 2020. I do not like demo trading too much as this totally leaves out the psychological side. I have no problem risking money otherwise i wouldn't be here? Why should i close a chapter that is obviously working for me but lacks of certain details / knowledge. So you mean like giving up on it? Doing system hopping again before mastering something so in 2-3 years so i do know 3-5% more on a dozens of other methods/systems but actually...
Avery there’s no magic formula. If we knew of a fixer trade which would ALWAYS fix the 8:15am failed trade, we would just trade that as the main trade instead. What would be the point of trading the 8:15am trade at all? Think about it.

Here’s a thought - if countering isn’t working for you, just take the loss. And instead of using the full range as your SL, maybe try 10-15 pips instead. Or try to aim for more pips on the 8:15am trade. You’ll see some days it breaks and just keeps going. This way you won’t have to face the unfavourable reward to risk ratio you have mentioned a few times.

I can tell you are genuinely trying to learn but the way you ask your questions can sometimes come across as snarky. So maybe tone down the inverted commas and constant challenges of the methods discussed here. They are working for most people, otherwise they wouldn’t be wasting their time here. Countering isn’t for everyone, even experienced traders on here have said as much. Maybe it isn’t for you either.
  • #55,834
  • Jan 20, 2021 1:19pm Jan 20, 2021 1:19pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Avery there’s no magic formula. If we knew of a fixer trade which would ALWAYS fix the 8:15am failed trade, we would just trade that as the main trade instead. What would be the point of trading the 8:15am trade at all? Think about it. Here’s a thought - if countering isn’t working for you, just take the loss. And instead of using the full range as your SL, maybe try 10-15 pips instead. Or try to aim for more pips on the 8:15am trade. You’ll see some days it breaks and just keeps going. This way you won’t have to face the unfavourable reward...
Thank you I will try what you said.
  • #55,835
  • Jan 20, 2021 2:30pm Jan 20, 2021 2:30pm
Quoting Avery
{quote} I am doing good at trading the BillyBar and trading at all but thanks. Quiet tripled my account since beginning of 2020. I do not like demo trading too much as this totally leaves out the psychological side. I have no problem risking money otherwise i wouldn't be here? Why should i close a chapter that is obviously working for me but lacks of certain details / knowledge. So you mean like giving up on it? Doing system hopping again before mastering something so in 2-3 years so i do know 3-5% more on a dozens of other methods/systems but actually...
I am disappointed, but not surprised, you dismissed my comment ,as indicated by your derisive comment highlighted above. However, perhaps you might note, and adopt, the suggestions by ia1979, above. To some extent he repeats my comment to give up trying an approach to which you are clearly not suited, and try another; perhaps along the lines suggested by 1979. And maybe modify the 'Billy Bar' trade.It is painful to watch someone losing both the intellectual struggle and money, trying to grasp the basics of a trading approach used by others. You do not need to 'system hop' as alluded to in your reply to my post. I am assuming you are not that feeble minded. What you do is to examine and adapt something to fit your need. To lose money experimenting on a sytem you do not understand is pure folly. 'Demo' may not provide the psychological element of 'real' trading but wouldn't it make basic common sense ,and financial rectitude,to save 'live' ammunition until you stand a good chance of hitting your target?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #55,836
  • Jan 20, 2021 4:00pm Jan 20, 2021 4:00pm
Here is the trade of the BillyBar from yesterday (19.01) i was talking of regarding countering. I still not managed to "fix" it nor tried to.

What some told me to undoing the hedge (waiting for the new setup). So I should have exited the positive side for a profit the moment i got the short signal today on the billy bar? Then letting it move south for X points so i could close the negative side for break even or even add to it by a new trade?

Well guess what today the low broke and failed too, so glad i missed it. No critics here, just trying to understand if this is the procedure to come out of the locked-in trade, i think Michael and stu as well as some other users tried to say something similar like that to me. Maybe i am wrong.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: billybar-trade-190121.jpg Size: 207 KB
  • #55,837
  • Jan 20, 2021 4:14pm Jan 20, 2021 4:14pm
Quoting MichaelG
Like waiting for paint to dry sometimes lol. +4 on the 2h range after NY close. {image}
May dry real quick tonight with the red news for both sides, lol. X
  • #55,838
  • Jan 20, 2021 4:19pm Jan 20, 2021 4:19pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} May dry real quick tonight with the red news for both sides, lol. X
Inserted Video
  • #55,839
  • Jan 20, 2021 4:23pm Jan 20, 2021 4:23pm
Quoting Avery
Here is the trade of the BillyBar from yesterday (19.01) i was talking of regarding countering. I still not managed to "fix" it nor tried to. What some told me to undoing the hedge (waiting for the new setup). So I should have exited the positive side for a profit the moment i got the short signal today on the billy bar? Then letting it move south for X points so i could close the negative side for break even or even add to it by a new trade? Well guess what today the low broke and failed too, so glad i missed it. No critics here, just trying to...
Yes that’s one way to do it. Or you could use a different trigger. For example the 12-4am range break on GU. Or a different instrument/trigger. But you are now thinking along the right lines. Personally I would not use the 8:15am trade to fix another 8:15am trade. But that is a personal choice. Nothing wrong with it. And of course, no guarantees it will work. In the past year the Billy bar trade has failed 3 days in a row before. But it has also had a winning streak of nearly 3 weeks if I remember correctly. We don’t know what tomorrow or even the next 5 minutes will bring. All we can do is participate. And most importantly, be ready with a back up plan. Because as you know, the method does fail. The good thing about this method is that on average, it will work 3-4 days every week. So in reality, you only have to worry about the 1 or 2 days it doesn’t work. Yes, the losses on those 1 or 2 days can wipe out your gains, which is why you NEED a back up plan.

Having said that, most of us are happy only needing a back up plan for 1 or 2 days a week, safe in the knowledge that on the other 3-4 days, we’ll be in and out of the market with a profit quickly. And we appreciate everything Billy and others have provided here free of charge, out of the goodness of their hearts.
  • #55,840
  • Jan 20, 2021 4:28pm Jan 20, 2021 4:28pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} I am disappointed, but not surprised, you dismissed my comment ,as indicated by your derisive comment highlighted above. However, perhaps you might note, and adopt, the suggestions by ia1979, above. To some extent he repeats my comment to give up trying an approach to which you are clearly not suited, and try another; perhaps along the lines suggested by 1979. And maybe modify the 'Billy Bar' trade.It is painful to watch someone losing both the intellectual struggle and money, trying to grasp the basics of a trading approach used by others....
Yes you have a some good valid points here. I tried to say with it that nobody should have to worry/care about me losing money or not while experimenting. So far i was always able to fix those fails BUT thats exactly the point. What i do to fix is then completely out of plan and i just trying to understand / find a working plan for it.

What i do with fixing is then trading what i see in the moment while i am at the computer, watching and having time for it. Maybe doing a lot of more little "scalping" trades until i maybe have it fixed or lost another total of what i planned ahead of time (was willing to lose).

I am not sure it would be much different with any other "strategy/system".

Thanks for your help, appreciate it.
60 traders viewing now