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Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EU, the bearish call based on the weekly chart proved correct. It's been a very good week and I hope everyone enjoyed taking these easy pips. Have a good weekend everyone {image}
Excellent trading S. I can't help but notice your trading has reached an even greater level over these last 6-8 weeks.

You have found the perfect balance of maximising efficiency on trend and counter setups. The confidence you have with your strategy is very inspiring.

Well done.
Hello Shahab. What do you think of Gold? Do you see further downside or maybe it will rise from here? I am considering opening a healthy position for the medium term.

Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting C-12
{quote} Excellent trading S. I can't help but notice your trading has reached an even greater level over these last 6-8 weeks. You have found the perfect balance of maximising efficiency on trend and counter setups. The confidence you have with your strategy is very inspiring. Well done.
Cheers C
You are right I have been trying to find a balance between trend following and counter trend setups. I noticed we were doing a lot of counter trend setups which was not very efficient. Also, I've been incorporating the bigger picture (based on daily and weekly chart) into my trades. The example was EU short trade that I managed to keep longer than usual. I think I did +25 trades last week. A few of them ended up at b/e, but the winners were mostly +100 pips. The only mistake was closing GU 1.3450 long trade prematurely (+95 instead of +245). The interesting part is that a few hours after I shared my trade setup (short GU @ 1.3550) I noticed the similarities between GU triangle formation and AU triangle formation back in December 2019. As you can see they both formed an abc correction and the triangle was wave b, leading to a very impulsive upside move subsequently. But for some reason I just went ahead with the initial trade plan that I posted here. That being said, I've decided that starting next week, I will be more focused on trading rather than posting.
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Quoting Alorente
Hello Shahab. What do you think of Gold? Do you see further downside or maybe it will rise from here? I am considering opening a healthy position for the medium term. Thanks.
Hi Al, I think Gold is forming an expanding triangle (or more specifically a descending broadening wedge according to the encyclopedia of chart pattern by Thomas Bulkowski). I noticed a similar pattern on Gold back in 2008-2009. As you can see it may continue for a long period of time. I think 1750/1700 may provide good long opportunities for long term investment.
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Posted this on the Cable thread: I am currently entertaining two scenarios on GU. The bearish scenario is based on a possible double top formation on D1 with neckline @ 1.3450/1.350. The D1 RSI divergence and bearish engulfing candle support this scenario. The bullish scenario is based on a possible ascending triangle formation on D1. If we see a strong rejection around 1.35, the latter is more likely.
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Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Cheers C You are right I have been trying to find a balance between trend following and counter trend setups. I noticed we were doing a lot of counter trend setups which was not very efficient. Also, I've been incorporating the bigger picture (based on daily and weekly chart) into my trades. The example was EU short trade that I managed to keep longer than usual. I think I did +25 trades last week. A few of them ended up at b/e, but the winners were mostly +100 pips. The only mistake was closing GU 1.3450 long trade prematurely (+95 instead...
We should consider further use of hedging (locking) positions. Rather than exiting at a level, we can take opposing setups and worse case is giving back a few pips but always retaining a core directional position.

I know we've touched on this before, but putting it to practice is another thing as it isn't a comfortable thing to do. I have added this into the trading plan this weekend. Hedging might not be everyone's cup of tea.
Quoting C-12
{quote} We should consider further use of hedging (locking) positions. Rather than exiting at a level, we can take opposing setups and worse case is giving back a few pips but always retaining a core directional position. I know we've touched on this before, but putting it to practice is another thing as it isn't a comfortable thing to do. I have added this into the trading plan this weekend. Hedging might not be everyone's cup of tea.
Hedging is not a good practice. Unless you are deploying the counter hedge type which also lead you into losing some pips.
Le$$ I$ More
Quoting Roszey
{quote} Hedging is not a good practice. Unless you are deploying the counter hedge type which also lead you into losing some pips.
I guess it depends on how the hedging is done. Shahab has a sell on GBPUSD from 1.37 and has both a bull and bear scenario outlined above.

Let's say he sees 1.35 as the key level for the uptrend to continue. If it breaks then that opens up much lower targets. If it holds with good rejection it's possibly going to a new high.

In this scenario, it might be better to keep short from 1.37 and buy 1.35 rather than fully exit. This provides more options depending on the PA.

If he fully exits / buys 1.35 and the level breaks then the trend position is lost, plus also will have lost 20-25 pips.
Quoting C-12
{quote} I guess it depends on how the hedging is done. Shahab has a sell on GBPUSD from 1.37 and has both a bull and bear scenario outlined above. Let's say he sees 1.35 as the key level for the uptrend to continue. If it breaks then that opens up much lower targets. If it holds with good rejection it's possibly going to a new high. In this scenario, it might be better to keep short from 1.37 and buy 1.35 rather than fully exit. This provides more options depending on the PA. If he fully exits / buys 1.35 and the level breaks then the trend position...
Sure i get that part.

But i believe the GU weekly ranges can be effective when using the hedging methodology and aid in maximizing profit has well.
Le$$ I$ More
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Hi Al, I think Gold is forming an expanding triangle (or more specifically a descending broadening wedge according to the encyclopedia of chart pattern by Thomas Bulkowski). I noticed a similar pattern on Gold back in 2008-2009. As you can see it may continue for a long period of time. I think 1750/1700 may provide good long opportunities for long term investment. {image} {image}
Thanks Shahad.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting C-12
{quote} We should consider further use of hedging (locking) positions. Rather than exiting at a level, we can take opposing setups and worse case is giving back a few pips but always retaining a core directional position. I know we've touched on this before, but putting it to practice is another thing as it isn't a comfortable thing to do. I have added this into the trading plan this weekend. Hedging might not be everyone's cup of tea.
Yes, I agree. I rarely do it because it may get complicated, particularly in a choppy/irregular market condition. But that's certainly an option.
Danske Bank FX forecast.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FXForecastUpdate_150121.pdf   1.5 MB | 232 downloads
Here are the current support according to Volume.
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Le$$ I$ More
Quoting hasib
{quote} But I think TL drawing in the chart with basic understanding will generate much more good results than S&R level{image}
The explanation is ZERO and you don't need to explain to me how you draw TL because it's different from your sentence using basic TL is more profitable than Dmark

the problem and intrigue me is your attitude when asking ..

be a little smart with the questions you're trying to ask or maybe you want to look smart by asking lots of questions ..

the kettle will regurgitate what it contains.

I'm done with you ..

PS. I delete my trash post.
Quoting meugampong
{quote} The explanation is ZERO and you don't need to explain to me how you draw TL because it's different from your sentence using basic TL is more profitable than Dmark the problem and intrigue me is your attitude when asking .. be a little smart with the questions you're trying to ask or maybe you want to look smart by asking lots of questions .. the kettle will regurgitate what it contains. I'm done with you ..
you ask me questions, I answer as much as I can, If you are done with me it's ok, I don't have any problem.
I never said TD TL is better than my one, I said TD TL is better than most of S&R. Because that is very objective than subjective S&R. Please don't misunderstand what I said and what I tried to say.
Anyway, you know better than me so Keep it up.
Oh, another point I never ask you anything here, I ask experienced traders those who have better skills than me.
Follow a system & a person not everything & everyone
hasib, it seems to me you are jumping from one method to another without mastering them. We trade based on PA here. But you either post blank charts or charts with colorful indicators. Maybe you are just more comfortable using indicators. Which is fine. But this is not the right place. You are confusing everyone. I think it is best if you take a break from this thread.
I do have sell position on EURUSD, in profit. Will close it today as soon as the market opens. CFTC reports are out and majority are still in buy and they added more buy positions and took off sell positions. This Wednesday coming, Biden speaks, so that may push USD up a bit a reaction. That means EURUSD could go down a bit more, before going back up again. But will see. Trade safe.
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Quoting Techanalyst
I do have sell position on EURUSD, in profit. Will close it today as soon as the market opens. CFTC reports are out and majority are still in buy and they added more buy positions and took off sell positions. This Wednesday coming, Biden speaks, so that may push USD up a bit a reaction. That means EURUSD could go down a bit more, before going back up again. But will see. Trade safe. {image}
Hi, Please Any COT report on GBP?
Le$$ I$ More
We are now in the zone.(1.3525). Let see PA plays out. Watching SW+ Volume support levels
30pips more to complete the day's range.

Early Monday intraday
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Le$$ I$ More
short the turtle..
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