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  • #221
  • Jan 14, 2021 2:39am Jan 14, 2021 2:39am
So, was hedged for sleep last night but when i have one open i often wake every hour or so and i have my phone on a chart sat at the side of the bed. 6m i woke for a pee, stayed awake till 7 cos the hedge was in profit and at a potential turning point. closed the hedge for 3 pips. fell asleep again and woke around 30 mins later to see price accelerating up. it almost made entry point of 17345 but being a stubborn and greedy buggar i wait for a 10 pip win which hasnt come yet, so i'm still long at 6.4 lots and now she's falling faster than a florida girl on an icecream. havent hedged again yet bcause it did form a bottom W which suggests upside. time will tell, so far for this sequence I am +365 on closed trades which is two hedges and orginal is still a grand in the hole and 34 pips away
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #222
  • Jan 14, 2021 11:34am Jan 14, 2021 11:34am
Hi Soul - thank you for the video. Very concise and I see what you do now. The example GBPCAD trade is a brilliant example and I would be interested in how this pans out and how the sequence finishes. Do keep us updated. Much appreciated.
  • #223
  • Jan 14, 2021 12:01pm Jan 14, 2021 12:01pm
Quoting Toccata
Hi Soul - thank you for the video. Very concise and I see what you do now. The example GBPCAD trade is a brilliant example and I would be interested in how this pans out and how the sequence finishes. Do keep us updated. Much appreciated.
it was a poor trade buddy, i get them sometimes. i broke one of my rules right at the start and paid the price, that's all closed out now and i took the hit but you get the general idea.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #224
  • Jan 15, 2021 8:54pm Jan 15, 2021 8:54pm
The markets are there to humble you sometimes. I learned a lesson today that i'd like to share with you. It's hard to think after all these years I still screw up like this.

In December i did 70%+ on the trading account balance. hardly lost a trade at all. This has been the norm for a while now.

As a trader you are hardly every fully fixed on a trading method - over time you make small micro changes. you try this, you try that etc. and over a lot of years, you change a lot. So much that you can easily forget what you have done and sometimes what worked.

Sports people are familiar with this, a golfer will practice a swing and one thing will make a differennce then they move on to the stance and work on that. something else suffers because they forgot what they did to get the swing right...

I've just had the same experience. December was awesome performance - come january 2021 and everything went very so-so - the last two weeks have been pretty rocky for me.

So i'm sat there today looking at the charts and the trades thinking WTF has happened? Is it the market? is it me? am i simply picking the wrong pairs?

Something was wrong. My trading had suddenly become 'average' rather than way above average that i know my method delivers and i began being a little scared placing trades and a little less confident. why? i asked myself again and again

Then it hit me like a freight train. I realised that i'd gone back a step in my trading approach, I had regressed- by just ONE thing that I do.

This was caused by the Christmas break - I had over two weeks away from the market and i came back like a trogdolite.

One thing is for sure - it wont happen again because i've printed each step out in huge letters on A3 paper and stuck it to the wall.

As soon as I found it then it was a eureka moment and hit me like a brick. Confidence returned and i turned a shitty day into an acceptable day

The lesson i want to get over to you is this. If you change anything, even the slightest thing - make sure to write it down and embed it before you change anyhing else or have a holiday. EVEN if it's friday and you dont trade again till monday - on monday first thing refresh your mind where you are on your goals at and what you do to get there.

I'm sure some will be laughing, many do like to see people have a hard time - go ahead, i have nothing to prove to you but i thought i would share this story with you and hope that it helps someone.

Hope you all had a good week
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #225
  • Jan 16, 2021 3:17am Jan 16, 2021 3:17am
I soul good morning may do you whant to share with us your mistake?
  • #226
  • Jan 16, 2021 9:27am Jan 16, 2021 9:27am
Quoting soultrader
The markets are there to humble you sometimes. I learned a lesson today that i'd like to share with you. It's hard to think after all these years I still screw up like this. In December i did 70%+ on the trading account balance. hardly lost a trade at all. This has been the norm for a while now. As a trader you are hardly every fully fixed on a trading method - over time you make small micro changes. you try this, you try that etc. and over a lot of years, you change a lot. So much that you can easily forget what you have done and sometimes what...
thank you for sharing this, this thread is great and inspirational.. I can relate on changing thing when you dont have to. I do that often in my professional life, when things start to work well, I change something, not sure why... maybe I think to myself : 'its too easy now, it can't be like that' or I'm getting bored because achieving something that work require constant hard work and research, so when it finally work, it miss the excitation of the 'research' part. take care and well done on quickly identifying what needed to be done
  • #227
  • Jan 16, 2021 9:31am Jan 16, 2021 9:31am
Quoting soultrader
EXCRCISE: on your account go to gbpusd and place a long trade and a short trade at the same time. your objective is to make at least 10 pips from each position. you may add to positions if you wish as many times as you like, but if you do then you must make 10 pips at the total position size in each direction Thre is no time limit on the trade length is this clear? this is a lot easier to do on ctrader because when you add to a position you still only have one position and not lots of them Just to clarify, this is not what i do to trade - but it...
I did the test, couple times, still doing, crazy this has been my easiest, stress free trades in a while probably ever. of course its on demo so will see. but it does open a new way for me of thinking money management, not just the test but the whole thread. thank you
  • #228
  • Jan 16, 2021 12:37pm Jan 16, 2021 12:37pm
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} I did the test, couple times, still doing, crazy this has been my easiest, stress free trades in a while probably ever. of course its on demo so will see. but it does open a new way for me of thinking money management, not just the test but the whole thread. thank you
Told you didnt I

Now, the key is only to use this when you are wrong - so you still try to be right >50% of the time. dont take it for gramted or you end up always fighting a hedge. but it does mean you never have to lose again

It's also very useful if you need urgently to go out, go to sleep or if an emergency crops up - stick a hedge in and go do it.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #229
  • Jan 16, 2021 3:29pm Jan 16, 2021 3:29pm
Did you discover this recovery strategy in those days i mean in this tread?do you whant to discuss about it with us?
  • #230
  • Jan 16, 2021 10:51pm Jan 16, 2021 10:51pm
With all due respect, I think this hedging story is a risk accumulating strategy:
- your exposure is big in relation to only a few pips of gains (according to your own video)
- you throw money towards an essentially bad going trade
It will give good results, probably for quite some time until the day of reckoning comes - it always does.
  • #231
  • Jan 17, 2021 4:41am Jan 17, 2021 4:41am
Quoting soultrader
{quote} Yep, and this is the bit you have to get used to - you can hedge, hedge again etc as many times as you like. here's the thing though - you have to have something to hold onto as a basic truth - and that truth is the daily trend because 95% of the time the price carries on to that trend. however even if it doesnt you can always add to the hedge and add to the original position too - this brings the line closer to you all the time withou actually increasing the open loss. That's what 500:1 leverage is for. this is also why you cannot make...
Great thread soultrader its rare to see someone on FF that knows what they are talking about.

Can I ask where did you learn Hedging? Do you by any chance have any resources on the hedging method you use?

Also you say daily trend continues 95% of the time. What happens on the 5% it doesnt?

Lastly if there are several pairs/crosses that trend how do you select the one trade?

p.s I loved reading the grail strategy. Its hilarious how simple it was.
  • #232
  • Jan 17, 2021 4:52am Jan 17, 2021 4:52am
Quoting fxke62
With all due respect, I think this hedging story is a risk accumulating strategy: - your exposure is big in relation to only a few pips of gains (according to your own video) - you throw money towards an essentially bad going trade It will give good results, probably for quite some time until the day of reckoning comes - it always does.
You are talking about a day of reckoning where even if you used a stop loss you would be f*cked. As in price would jump so far even beyond your stop.

The key to hedging is as you accumulate a bigger position you get less greedy and the focus shifts onto getting out with a break even and reducing your size. Unlike say martingale where you increase your size to get larger profits.
  • #233
  • Jan 17, 2021 7:01am Jan 17, 2021 7:01am
I would like to focus the attenction of everybody here about an evidence.the martingala is a good recovery strategy?yes and not it depende in wich market we are involved...the recovery strategy were we have two open position with same size wait till one of two is in profit take the profit an again wait for retracement it is a nice one?yes or not it depend of the market conditio..the question is ..lateral market o trendy market?strong gamme or weak gamme?this is the problem...
  • #234
  • Jan 17, 2021 3:30pm Jan 17, 2021 3:30pm
Quoting fxke62
With all due respect, I think this hedging story is a risk accumulating strategy: - your exposure is big in relation to only a few pips of gains (according to your own video) - you throw money towards an essentially bad going trade It will give good results, probably for quite some time until the day of reckoning comes - it always does.
My exposure isnt actually big. i run to begin with at 10:1 and most of the time the first trades pay off - often i add to them - I hedge for several reasons, maybe it's going the wrong way and i want to go to bed, maybe i just want some breathing time to think about the market and consider if it's changing, maybe i just have to go out for something unexpectedly.

The gap between the trades on the video were so because the trend had not changed until that point, normally it's quite a bit tighter than that.

when i do hedge firstly it's exactly the same size as my first trade - so effectively i'm flat but you arent actually flat because you are still in it. thing is your open loss only increases by the swap fees. if the move is strong then i might double the hedge so the hedge is reducing the open loss. sometimes even more. the hedge closes and gives profit and then i look to close the original for a few pips but i mostly still go for the 20 - 30. often when i close the hedge i also double the original to bring it closer. who wants to sit on a trade thats hedged for a week right? not me.

regards it being only for a few pips - well it's usually around 20 - 30 i take. to me a few pips is like 5 pips. back in the day before quants i used to go for home runs - they did exist back then. today a 30 pip move is a good move and probably the average - then it sits for 3 hours and might move 30 again or move 30 back against you. this is trading today not how it was at the turn of the 21st century. but think about a few pips - mostly by that time i'm many lost in, even possible 12 lots - would you sooner have 4 pips at 12 lots or 40 at 1 lot?

When hedged i have no target - the hedge is closed when i get an opposite signal and not until - this is sometimes a long way away and sometimes closer than i had hoped

Forex is all about math because unlike stocks, none are going to zero. Do you think Ed Thorp used indicators and tight stops when he took his card counting to the markets and made millions? o you think warren buffet or george soros use stops? I can assure you they do not.

I do understand why you think that way fxke62, because no-one has ever opened your eyes to this and you may have invested many years of learning. but be open minded - they used to think the earth was flat - in fact some still do lol
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #235
  • Jan 17, 2021 3:50pm Jan 17, 2021 3:50pm
Quoting faroutxxx
{quote} Great thread soultrader its rare to see someone on FF that knows what they are talking about. Can I ask where did you learn Hedging? Do you by any chance have any resources on the hedging method you use? Also you say daily trend continues 95% of the time. What happens on the 5% it doesnt? Lastly if there are several pairs/crosses that trend how do you select the one trade? p.s I loved reading the grail strategy. Its hilarious how simple it was.
Hi matey.

I came up with my way of doing it myself with some common sense and a calculator and by simply doing it.

What first put me on the path was a youtube video from a fella called joseph nemeth. he hedged his way to 5 million inside 3 years. now i didnt like his recovery strategy because he just added and added all the time. it's fine whilst you have margin but you still have to get out. in the end i think he was killed off because he had so much money under management. I'm happy just to trade for me and a few copiers

so I sat there and asked myself a question. "how would i trade if i had near unlimited funds" that was pretty simple, trade with no stops and hold forever till they make money - clearly not good because i dont have unlimited funds but i do have quite a lot. so then i asked "how can i trade larger so it's meaningful without increasing my risk" - that's where hedging comes in. I'm very comfortable to trade with 100:1 leverage in use now, at first it was a bit scary but it doesn't scare me at all anymore.

You ask about the 5% when the trend doesn't come back - well that's when i hedge.

you also asked about choosing the pair. i tend to trade the UK / US timezone - so generally I trade pairs that are 'In Session' - GBP and Euro pairs are the top of my list - i dont trade eurgbp although that might change now we have brexit completed, I dont trade chf very often. so generally I have around 4 eur pairs and 4 or 5 gbp pairs. now when you think about this it's really only two - i either take a eur pair or a gbp pair. and i only want really 2-3 trades a day although i have had 9 in one day before. they all set up at the same time most of the time, i'll go for the first one to show out of the gate but prefer the faster moving ones like EA or GJ because i can often get a stretch target and out faster.

Many will say wow - two trades a day - that's pathetic - is it really if i got say 25 pips twice a day - at £20 a pip? - it'll do me.

Trading is like being in a casino. they employ dancing girls, give you free drinks and snacks to keep you in there. But the longer you are in, the more likley the odds are to turn against you. get in, take your chips, go home. that's me
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #236
  • Jan 17, 2021 3:51pm Jan 17, 2021 3:51pm
How did Thorp take a blackjack card counting system to the markets ? I think you are confused mate - no stop loss on blackjack though, I will agree. I think many traders will accept you have something that works for you, and for that - well done mate. But as a ‘Never lose strategy’, I think that might be misleading to others. You are managing your risk differently, but I believe it is no difference to taking your loss and moving on. But if it works for you Soul - keep it running and I wish you well
  • #237
  • Jan 17, 2021 4:34pm Jan 17, 2021 4:34pm
Just read your book over the weekend soultrader it was entertaining,can you tell us more about the legal action that was taken what was mentioned in the book?
  • #238
  • Jan 17, 2021 5:41pm Jan 17, 2021 5:41pm
Quoting rogerha
How did Thorp take a blackjack card counting system to the markets ? I think you are confused mate - no stop loss on blackjack though, I will agree. I think many traders will accept you have something that works for you, and for that - well done mate. But as a ‘Never lose strategy’, I think that might be misleading to others. You are managing your risk differently, but I believe it is no difference to taking your loss and moving on. But if it works for you Soul - keep it running and I wish you well
Hi Roger - ref Thorpe - first he did 'beat the dealer' which was card counting on blackjack - then 'beat the markets' - made a lot of money running a hedge fund that exploited arbitrage

http://www.edwardothorp.com/books/beat-the-market/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward...p#Stock_market
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #239
  • Jan 17, 2021 5:43pm Jan 17, 2021 5:43pm
Quoting nozzer
Just read your book over the weekend soultrader it was entertaining,can you tell us more about the legal action that was taken what was mentioned in the book?
Nozzer, not really.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #240
  • Jan 17, 2021 6:11pm Jan 17, 2021 6:11pm
Mee too i wached many times almost every video of joseph nemhet.quite cool stuff..if i well remember he had his own ea that split the main pisition in five and then if the price break the twenty moving average open a recovery position.and also he was i guess e first that show how manage the losong position without stop loss with using his own recovery strategy by add lots in sequence within one 50 recovery zone position
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