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  • #321
  • Jan 9, 2021 10:26am Jan 9, 2021 10:26am
Quoting Rearden
Weekly Summary 04 Jan to 08 Jan The market opened below the S50 and went above. It gave an opportunity for #3b but I didn't notice that the S50 was turning up. I saw G take it with an additional position from bottom of the swing and the reason for it. I will do this when the next opportunity presents itself. There was another clear #3b which I placed after seeing G putting a PO. it didn't trigger. But since the PO was missed by few pips and it gave a bullish outside bar, I could have entered at the close of it. As of now, I will stick to the rules...
You are doing an exercise, which you know won't make you rich or make you poor. Don't allow your mind to drift into the future fantasy. Deal with each day and learn from the past and present.

You are talking about outside bars at the same time you didn't notice the movement of price. In other words, you are zooming into a speck on a tree and not seeing the forest. See the forest first.

Don't be mad that you took losing positions... be excited you closed them that day and not yesterday for an additional 100 pips of loss. Will price fall more or come back up? Who knows. That's what you are learning about.
Be bullish on you.
  • #322
  • Jan 10, 2021 10:01pm Jan 10, 2021 10:01pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} You are doing an exercise, which you know won't make you rich or make you poor. Don't allow your mind to drift into the future fantasy. Deal with each day and learn from the past and present. You are talking about outside bars at the same time you didn't notice the movement of price. In other words, you are zooming into a speck on a tree and not seeing the forest. See the forest first. Don't be mad that you took losing positions... be excited you closed them that day and not yesterday for an additional 100 pips of loss. Will price fall more...
Hi G,

Sorry, I was a bit caught up due to other commitments and couldn't reply earlier.

Yes. I understand that the exercise is not going to make me rich or poor. I am not worried about the dollar amount made or lost during the exercise(But being right vs profitable still has a grip on the thinking.) I think I am a bit worried if I am seeing and absorbing everything that should be seen and absorbed and I look more carefully not to miss out anything. But as you said, when I do that I miss the bigger picture.

Also, you are right when you said in your journal, that I am struggling with things seen and deviating from basic rules to incorporate things seen. I am wondering when should I start incorporating these rules.... ?should I follow the basic rules for some more time? etc.... Even though I believe I have made good progress in understanding the charts I think I have a long way to go in the implementation part . For e.g. I gave up on the second #3b idea and my brain didn't recognize that until I saw you take that.. Then I thought.. oh yea.. that's a #3b trade... and I didn't see that first..... Also to incorporate the lessons learned, Ideally, I should have skipped the last trade..... but I am happy that I exited as per the earlier observation. I still had my reservations in taking that trade after failure at the swing high but still implementation was different. So I am bit here and there in following basic rules and deviating to incorporate....

I will focus on the basic rules first. Thank you for the post. It was helpful to slowdown.
  • #323
  • Jan 10, 2021 10:07pm Jan 10, 2021 10:07pm
11 Jan

Up Bias down move.

The price has turned to a down move. I will wait for the price to
1. come up and give a #3b trade or
2. go all the way up to turn to up move or
3.make a new down swing and then come back up to turn to up move.

the below screenshot was taken few hours back from my computer at home and price has not turned to down move yet
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  • #324
  • Jan 11, 2021 6:47am Jan 11, 2021 6:47am
The basic rules are there to start out with. (1) they make the point that you can trade every day, but you probably don't want to take a trade every day, because every trade isn't equal. There are times when a trade is much more high probability. AND (2) they are there to come back to. If ever you go down a wrong path, come back to basic rules.

Add things one at a time. I have read about candle patterns, big round numbers, HH/HL, prior highs, etc. from your journal. Start with that chart above. Those are the first things on the chart, master them. You are already doing this, so the next step is add one thing. You've already added shut it down early based on what those things show you. That may not seem like much, but go look at the chart above and appreciate how many pips were saved by closing where you did. THAT IS A BIG DEAL! Give it credit.

Try to add things that go with the bias first. Because of the human desire to be right, we all seem to have a propensity to want to guess at when price will go the other way. So, even though I am guessing you see some obvious opportunity to go against bias, try to add things that go with bias first.

You are doing fine.
Be bullish on you.
  • #325
  • Edited 7:42pm Jan 11, 2021 7:25pm | Edited 7:42pm
12 jan 2021

Up Bias Down move

the market has come down again from the last low moving down my white line to 1.2199. I will wait for the price to come up and turn to an up move before I do anything.
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  • #326
  • Jan 11, 2021 7:42pm Jan 11, 2021 7:42pm
Quoting gejordan
The basic rules are there to start out with. (1) they make the point that you can trade every day, but you probably don't want to take a trade every day, because every trade isn't equal. There are times when a trade is much more high probability. AND (2) they are there to come back to. If ever you go down a wrong path, come back to basic rules. Add things one at a time. I have read about candle patterns, big round numbers, HH/HL, prior highs, etc. from your journal. Start with that chart above. Those are the first things on the chart, master them....
Thank you.

Yes, sure. Understood. I have been looking at all those different things to corelate to the basic chart with just MA and pivot to get more out of it(or not to miss any info chart is showing). But the more things I add at one go the more confusion and mixed data(feedback to incorporate/implement)I get from the chart. As you advised, I will stick to the basic chart set up and stick to closing it early/back at S50 for net BE etc for now. Once I have mastered it... then I will add HH and HL to learn the correlation.

In my last post I have been hesitating to ask your advise on a sensible goal that I should be focusing on. Why because, Since this is a learning phase, I think counting number of pips or a dollar amount are not prudent goals. But I think this post answers my question. Thank you for the advise. It helps tremendously.
  • #327
  • Edited 4:56pm Jan 12, 2021 4:45pm | Edited 4:56pm
13 Jan 21

UP bias, Up move

The price has turned to an up move and held above the pivot and S50. This is the first time that price is showing it wants to go up since the start of down move from 2350 area. I have placed an entry at Pivot and S50. Also, since I am testing better entries from the edges, I placed an entry there as well..

Update: Missed to put the TP.

Thinking about better entries, and looking back at my early exits(exiting on a hold below S50 rather than below the white line) for the last trade and similar trades in the past, I see that most of the time price provides an opportunity for better entries from a mini swing (formed on the way up) and an opportunity to exit at the S50 for reduced loss or BE. This happened at the start of exercise in August and also in September.
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  • #328
  • Jan 13, 2021 4:36pm Jan 13, 2021 4:36pm
Quoting Rearden
13 Jan 21 UP bias, Up move The price has turned to an up move and held above the pivot and S50. This is the first time that price is showing it wants to go up since the start of down move from 2350 area. I have placed an entry at Pivot and S50. Also, since I am testing better entries from the edges, I placed an entry there as well.. Update: Missed to put the TP. Thinking about better entries, and looking back at my early exits(exiting on a hold below S50 rather than below the white line) for the last trade and similar trades in the past, I see that...
14 Jan 2021
UP BIAS UP move

The price has triggered all my positions and came down and closed below both pivot and S50. I didn't close the trade since the range is smaller and also near to the previous swing low.

Also, price has poked the white line to the upside and came short of the low (Not sure as of if price will travel further south) . I have seen G commenting on post 1251 about a poke on August 06 and hinting if that is sign of start of a range. I hope I am not looking at these signs as 'confirmation bias' but identifying a similar pattern/story.

I have brought down the target to the yesterday high area where price came down from.
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  • #329
  • Jan 14, 2021 9:19am Jan 14, 2021 9:19am
The price has turned to a down move. This is not a surprise looking at the weekly chart.

The price gave multiple opportunities at the S50 for a net BE exit. I will take note of this and test some past data based on the exercise.
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  • #330
  • Edited 8:42am Jan 17, 2021 8:02am | Edited 8:42am
Weekly Summary 10 Jan to 16 Jan 2021

The week was an UP bias week and opened in down move. Seeing the weekly chart, I had some expectation if the week will will end bearish even if the bias is up. I took only one trade this week and it provided a good opportunity for learning. After I exited the trade, I went through all the trades from Jan 2020 week by week even before the start of the exercise. The objective was to find trades which didn't work and to see if it was better to close at the hold below S50.
I found the below stats.

There was a significant number of trades which provided an early exit when price held below the S50. But at the same time, there was trades from both bias and no bias week which went to a mini swing and then turned to the initial direction. There were very less trades which was a winner from the white line once it closed below S50.

After I thought about it, even though the stats is good for general understanding this cannot be applied to any specific trade. So I went back to Jan 2020 onwards again and observed other clues for BIAS week with respect to pivot and S50 and how price closes and open for the day around these two based on post #102. This is ongoing. I will understand more as I progress week by week.

Based on what I observed so far, we have pay attention to the action around Pivot and S50 at important places like swing highs/lows. Also the common recurring patterns. Last week price was in UP bias, it closed constantly for the first 3 days above the pivot.... reached the high.....came back down and then closed below the pivot. It then gave an exit at the S50 and came back down.

This week, it was an UP bias week. Price closed below the pivot and S50 on Monday. On Tuesday it went up . But price couldnt hold above the pivot or S50 and the very next day closed below it showing bullish weakness. Then it gave an opportunity to exit at the S50 before further move down. I think I have to understand the context price opening below/above pivot and the context of its closure.
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  • #331
  • Jan 17, 2021 5:21pm Jan 17, 2021 5:21pm
18 Jan 21

NO bias down move

Since the price is in a down move, I placed a PO at pivot and #3. However the price is at the previous swing lows and as per previous learnings, when the price fails to make new highs/lows there is a higher probability for it to reverse. I will watch what happens. I have placed the target to where price is now since this a NO bias week and less aggressive targets are preferred.
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  • #332
  • Jan 18, 2021 12:16am Jan 18, 2021 12:16am
Quoting Rearden
18 Jan 21 NO bias down move Since the price is in a down move, I placed a PO at pivot and #3. However the price is at the previous swing lows and as per previous learnings, when the price fails to make new highs/lows there is a higher probability for it to reverse. I will watch what happens. I have placed the target to where price is now since this a NO bias week and less aggressive targets are preferred. {image} {image}
Update.
Price failed to break lower. I removed the PO at pivot and now have only one PO at S50. If the price hold above the S50, I will close that as well for a small loss.

?is it better to remove #3 and keep a #1 near the white line? i will watch what happens.
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  • #333
  • Edited 4:48pm Jan 18, 2021 4:30pm | Edited 4:48pm
19 Jan 2021

NO BIAS down move,

The price went down but didn't hold below. So the white line remains where it is. Today the price opened above the pivot and below the S50. So I entered 1 short position from pivot and put a PO at s50. The price is near the previous swing lows. I will exit if price hold above the S50.

Update: Placed target from where it came up from.
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  • #334
  • Jan 19, 2021 1:56am Jan 19, 2021 1:56am
Quoting Rearden
19 Jan 2021 NO BIAS down move, The price went down but didn't hold below. So the white line remains where it is. Today the price opened above the pivot and below the S50. So I entered 1 short position from pivot and put a PO at s50. The price is near the previous swing lows. I will exit if price hold above the S50. Update: Placed target from where it came up from. {image}
The price triggered both entries. I exited when it close above the S50. It was not a surprise that the price would go up.

Next, I will wait for the price to hold above my white line or wait for the break of the low. Until then, I will wait.
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  • #335
  • Jan 19, 2021 4:39pm Jan 19, 2021 4:39pm
20 Jan 2021
No bias, down move

The price closed above the pivot and S50 after 4 trading days. The MA is turning to the upside. As the price is still in a down move, I will wait until the price break my white line to the upside or break the low. Until then, I will watch how price reacts at the S50 and pivot.


Observing a Zoomed out chart, I can see the bigger picture of price movement, how it goes above or below the S50 MA when it reaches the edges, how it stays during the moves in between these locations etc. Also, how price opening and closing above or below the pivots can add to the story. A quick glance shows that it is not advisable to buy when the price is below MA until it reaches the bottom of the previous swing.

Also, the price reacted from the 12 EMA that was placed on the weekly chart ystr. Just an observation.
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  • #336
  • Jan 20, 2021 4:38pm Jan 20, 2021 4:38pm
21 Jan 21

No bias down move

The market went up and closed above the pivot on 19 Jan. It came down and closed below the S50 and Pivot yesterday. Last week when this happened, the market eventually came down without closing above the S50(Jan 14). I have placed a PO at pivot and one at the 2150 area.

Price gave an opportunity for a better entry yesterday. I could have traded it back to the S50 from 2150 area.

Simplicity:

I have been thinking what does G mean by keeping my analysis simple again and again. I went back to read G's comment from the start of the exercise yesterday(ongoing). Although I have learned and improved quite a lot in reading the charts by doing the exercise, rereading the comments was an eye opener. I think I am getting what G meant by keeping analysis simple.

we determine the bias of each week...entry and exit criterias are defined...... We are observing and learning the results of outcome by sticking to same rules again and again. How does it differ based on bias etc. I have been inserting HH,LH, fibs and round numbers which will deviate from basics and add more complexity and confusion. I think I am getting it.
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  • #337
  • Edited 5:13pm Jan 21, 2021 5:02pm | Edited 5:13pm
22 Jan 21
No bias, Down move

As per the lessons learned from the exercise, its better to wait for the price to reach near the white line before entering if the price open above S50/pivot in a down move. I saw this in action on 20 Jan. I had an opportunity to try this by waiting for a better entry at the blue arrow from where price went down couple of days back(15 Jan) back to S50.

For yesterday, I entered the trade since the price opened below S50 and pivot. The market went and closed above the S50. I waited a bit longer than required because the daily open was below the S50. But when I saw that the price failed to move below the pivot(White arrow), I closed the trade. I was slightly late.

Today is Friday, The price is near the white line. Not intending to take trade today. I will be in the sidelines and observe what price does.
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  • #338
  • Jan 21, 2021 5:04pm Jan 21, 2021 5:04pm
Quoting Rearden
21 Jan 21 No bias down move The market went up and closed above the pivot on 19 Jan. It came down and closed below the S50 and Pivot yesterday. Last week when this happened, the market eventually came down without closing above the S50(Jan 14). I have placed a PO at pivot and one at the 2150 area. Price gave an opportunity for a better entry yesterday. I could have traded it back to the S50 from 2150 area. Simplicity: I have been thinking what does G mean by keeping my analysis simple again and again. I went back to read G's comment from the start...
I'd say you are definitely getting it. Remember, the measure in the exercise at the beginning isn't profitability, it's seeing the chart. You are starting to see the chart. I can tell by your analysis on day to day and seeing on a larger frame where things might run into trouble. You are probably also starting to understand where you can trade against the basic rules. Where it makes sense with low risk. Not that you want to start doing that yet, but I am guessing you are starting to formulate how that works and where it might make sense.
Be bullish on you.
  • #339
  • Edited 5:05pm Jan 24, 2021 4:25pm | Edited 5:05pm
Weekly summary

No Bias week

This week was a good opportunity in learning the importance of waiting for good locations to take a trade even though the rules allow to take a trade. I took two trades.

First one: The price broke down on Monday but failed to hold below. It immediately rejected and came above. ON Tuesday, I had taken a trade as per the rules of the exercise but price was at the swing low where there was a higher chance for price to change direction. It did and I closed the trade when price held above the S50. Now looking back at those exits, reminds me of the lessons learned during initial period of exercise trading ranges and importance of exiting early and waiting for price to reach the bottom 75 % of the range.

So the best location to try a short trade(since its in Down move) was to try from 2140-50 area(somewhere near my right blue arrow) back to MA. Why, because that is the location from where price went down.

The second trade I took was also as per the rules. But what I realized looking back at that trade after rereading the journals is that the MA hasn't turned to the downside before I took the trade. S50 is still going up. So I could have avoided that.

The attached chart doesnt have Friday data on it. Its the same chart from previous post.
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  • #340
  • Jan 24, 2021 4:45pm Jan 24, 2021 4:45pm
25 Jan 21

No Bias, Down move

The price has reached the white line but is above the S50. I will wait for the price to break higher and hold above the 2177 to look for long trades. I am not taking a short now as the price is above the MA. I will wait for the price to come down and hold below the 2150 area(below the MA) to look for any short trades.... The MA has to turn down too.
Primary computer is down and analysis was done using web platform of the broker.... So I am not able to see the pivot location, MACD and a good look at HTF.
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