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Trading Made Simple

  • #114,781
  • Jan 7, 2021 10:24pm Jan 7, 2021 10:24pm
Quoting PixelSniper
{quote} I'm not surprised that he trades HSI, everytime I take a glance at the HSI chart I tell myself, damn! what a piece of cake.
just because we are from Hong Kong and has lowest cost in trading HSI
  • #114,782
  • Jan 7, 2021 10:41pm Jan 7, 2021 10:41pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @tommydoginti -- I don't understand what it means when you say a currency has a "trait". What exactly are the properties of a "trait"? Currencies are inter-dependent -- they don't exist in a vacuum. If I showed you two charts with only bars and no other markings, could you tell which pair it was? Yes -- exchange rates differ, but the same patterns appear for all currencies. Furthermore, the same indicators have been used successfully across all pairs -- I've never heard of an indicator that only works on NZDUSD. Prices are just numbers....
This is the point if view from algo and stats trading styles. share my experience below.

For example in 2020, a pattern recognition strategy distinctly similar to the SMA-trendline breakout in FF has 68% accuracy for GBP pairs but not JPY pairs, which only 46%.

Another volatility strategy I use is less consistent for CAD pairs, as CAD is more trend continuing than others. JPY is more prompt to stronger pull back compared with others in a trendy market.

One more tested strategy is a 3 hour reversal, a bit like triangle structure expecting breakout, just it is time-specific. EUR JPY worked well in 2hours pre NY open. The strategy only worked in summer clock.

Similar observation can also be made when comparing commodities, small cap stocks (for day trading), and indices.

No you cant tell from looking at a chart, because it is statistics. One may find more winning trades or more setup in certain pairs than others in a long run, especially when using a dashboard which quantifies things.

I see profitable traders able to earn enough with only one tool one strategy, it also align with a beginner’s advise of focusing on one, so why not?
basket trading is a strategy
  • #114,783
  • Jan 7, 2021 10:48pm Jan 7, 2021 10:48pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} my take on this is sticking to one pair is enough and good to begin with a strategy. My strategies on live acc only trade 2. My dad has retired and trades only HSI yet earning enough to sustain retirement life. Besides distraction, it seems some strategies work better on specific pairs due to the “traits” of the currencies. Volatility, tendency on continuation/reversal after spikes, active hours, are all a bit different for each pair. The expectancy of the same strategy can be very different or even go negative when switched to a new pair....
Hi Tommy, you are from Hong Kong according to your profile. A good way to learn FX is to learn about your own currency first.

So, what moves the HKD? Why does it move? Where is the economy of the country you are trading against?

Most people don't realize that when you trade currencies, you are spread trading. So, master the HKD and then trade it against other currencies. Remember that when you are trading currencies, you are in fact trading economies. Do you have world view for Hong Kong?

Is the HKD pegged? If it is pegged, what is it pegged against? How are things in that country? Does that put it in a range? Do you know where the range is? Start with yearly charts and work your way down.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #114,784
  • Jan 7, 2021 11:01pm Jan 7, 2021 11:01pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hi Tommy, you are from Hong Kong according to your profile. A good way to learn FX is to learn about your own currency first. So, what moves the HKD? Why does it move? Where is the economy of the country you are trading against? Most people don't realize that when you trade currencies, you are spread trading. So, master the HKD and then trade it against other currencies. Remember that when you are trading currencies, you are in fact trading economies. Do you have world view for Hong Kong? Is the HKD pegged? If it is pegged, what is it pegged...
no i am day trading 1H to 15min with stats. I just care how likely a certain price move would occur if a set up comes. Sorry cannot tell you anything about the world

Similarly in my career in biomedical field, we use statistics to predict how likely you will develop cancers given a certain SNP in your genome, how effective in % a COVID vaccine can work based on antibody concentration in trial patients.
I dont need to know why the mutation happens in one person but not another, the environmental factors, etc. Those analysis will be done by others with other approaches to the same matter.
But we can all go to same conclusion. People in Asia has higher chance to have mutation leading to lung cancer. I see it because of statistics, genomics sees it because of SNP passing through generations originated from Asian, biologists sees it because Asian is the biggest smoking population in the world

just like indicators, MA, candlestick patterns, TDI, they reflects technical views of the market, they dont tell world news, right? TMS is based on a technical evaluation as a start.
  • #114,785
  • Jan 7, 2021 11:12pm Jan 7, 2021 11:12pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} What goes up must comes down. free fall! beware now its time
As a forex trader going up or going down is not a problem. we love to trade those markets that go up and go down strongly.
our system fails in a Choppy market.
As PA trader decent rage market is not a problem too. The choppy market is Killer.
Trading one pair Kills many traders. In 2020 I have seen a trader how makes 50k just investing 100$. He trades GJ. Once GJ Lost momentum He started losing money. He withdraws 4K, I requested him to do so. Truth is He lost his balance.
I learn 3 lesson-
1. Trading one pair is not a good idea.
2. Withdrawing profit is a must.
3. Following MM and Slowing down is important.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #114,786
  • Jan 7, 2021 11:29pm Jan 7, 2021 11:29pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} no i am day trading 1H to 15min with stats. I just care how likely a certain price move would occur if a set up comes. Sorry cannot tell you anything about the world Similarly in my career in biomedical field, we use statistics to predict how likely you will develop cancers given a certain SNP in your genome, how effective in % a COVID vaccine can work based on antibody concentration in trial patients. I dont need to know why the mutation happens in one person but not another, the environmental factors, etc. Those analysis...
I am glad that you are acquainted with stats. Stats are very handy. So, here is a question for you. Do you trade both ways? If you do trade both ways, which trade is more likely to succeed? Once you eliminate your kurtosis, then skew will give you the answer. But even if you don't have that capability, knowing something about the world will help you decide when you are with or against the fundamental trend.

Quoting hasib
{quote} As a forex trader going up or going down is not a problem. we love to trade those markets that go up and go down strongly. our system fails in a Choppy market. As PA trader decent rage market is not a problem too. The choppy market is Killer. Trading one pair Kills many traders. In 2020 I have seen a trader how makes 50k just investing 100$. He trades GJ. Once GJ Lost momentum He started losing money. He withdraws 4K, I requested him to do so. Truth is He lost his balance. I learn 3 lesson- 1. Trading one pair is not a good idea. 2. Withdrawing...
Before I engage in this conversation, what is your version of "choppy"?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #114,787
  • Jan 7, 2021 11:45pm Jan 7, 2021 11:45pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I am glad that you are acquainted with stats. Stats are very handy. So, here is a question for you. Do you trade both ways? If you do trade both ways, which trade is more likely to succeed? Once you eliminate your kurtosis, then skew will give you the answer. But even if you don't have that capability, knowing something about the world will help you decide when you are with or against the fundamental trend. {quote} Before I engage in this conversation, what is your version of "choppy"?
I don't have any interest to start any debate here. If you don't understand the Choppy market, study old material.
Meaning less debate will not give us anything new.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #114,788
  • Jan 7, 2021 11:49pm Jan 7, 2021 11:49pm
Quoting hasib
{quote} I don't have any interest to start any debate here. If you don't understand the Choppy market, study old material. Meaning less debate will not give us anything new.
Thank you hasib, I will do just that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #114,789
  • Jan 7, 2021 11:52pm Jan 7, 2021 11:52pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I am glad that you are acquainted with stats. Stats are very handy. So, here is a question for you. Do you trade both ways? If you do trade both ways, which trade is more likely to succeed? Once you eliminate your kurtosis, then skew will give you the answer. But even if you don't have that capability, knowing something about the world will help you decide when you are with or against the fundamental trend. {quote} Before I engage in this conversation, what is your version of "choppy"?
I trade both ways, and my scale of trading is so small it (fortunately) does not need to consider big trend (yet). Take Dec as example, while USD was going down and big trend suggested “selling USD” for major pairs, I had more wins on “buying USD”. So far I dont see much skewing with my strategies (~1.6% difference in buy/sell with about 150/year, 5years data on one pair).

As of Hasib’s comment, I think the bigger issue for the trader’s loss is “making 50k with 100”, likely implies that a very high risk was used and MM not sustainable in losing streaks. Diversification is optional but not a must, and it can be done by having multiple strategies applied on one pair, or trade multiple pairs with one strategy (which is the point of discussion here), or both.
Another approach without diversification is apply a strategy that filters out more losing trades than winning ones, such as including fundamentals.

Trading with diversification can be a way to reduce DD in a long run. Just as a beginner looking for consistency, rushing to trade multiple pairs with multiple developing strategies, is very likely a road to maximize DD
  • #114,790
  • Jan 8, 2021 12:25am Jan 8, 2021 12:25am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I trade both ways, and my scale of trading is so small it (fortunately) does not need to consider big trend (yet). Take Dec as example, while USD was going down and big trend suggested “selling USD” for major pairs, I had more wins on “buying USD”. So far I dont see much skewing with my strategies (~1.6% difference in buy/sell with about 150/year, 5years data on one pair). As of Hasib’s comment, I think the bigger issue for the trader’s loss is “making 50k with 100”, likely implies that a very high risk was used and MM not sustainable in...
Small turns into big at some point. Nice post.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #114,791
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:03am Jan 8, 2021 2:03am
Tdi on chart
EURJPY H4 crossing down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #114,792
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:22am Jan 8, 2021 2:22am
Gold H4 with TDI on chart,
London bridge is falling down
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  • #114,793
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:40am Jan 8, 2021 2:40am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Friday Jan 08 Tokyo 10:00am EURUSD sell market @1.2257 pending sell limit 1.2276
Nice drop!

Now we shall see if 1.2200 will be hit before today' NFP.

If NFP is pro-dollar, the first spike will most likely to up.

Watch the price action ... Weekly Control Candle and if this week' candle HA will close red. And we will have a new market type next week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #114,794
  • Jan 8, 2021 4:43am Jan 8, 2021 4:43am
I am busy, enjoying trend and momentum.
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #114,795
  • Jan 8, 2021 5:01am Jan 8, 2021 5:01am
M Candle is an excellent tool. Thanks EMM.
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #114,796
  • Jan 8, 2021 5:10am Jan 8, 2021 5:10am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Nice drop! Now we shall see if 1.2200 will be hit before today' NFP. If NFP is pro-dollar, the first spike will most likely to up. Watch the price action ... Weekly Control Candle and if this week' candle HA will close red. And we will have a new market type next week. {image}
Thanks for your View Emm. I can see the last 2 month was bulish. The trend line is still holding. we could expect an upside move more if TL hold. otherwise, the market type will change.
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #114,797
  • Jan 8, 2021 9:15am Jan 8, 2021 9:15am
Kind of quiet -- so, maybe this is a good time for some reflection. A little bit of deeper thinking never hurts -- might even benefit your approach to trading...

Inserted Video
  • #114,798
  • Jan 8, 2021 10:07am Jan 8, 2021 10:07am
if you want simple trading without data, that's just irrational
i'm akin to the philosophy of simplicity beats complic-ity
but without data it's just not objective enough
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #114,799
  • Jan 8, 2021 11:35am Jan 8, 2021 11:35am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} "starting down" + "down CONTINUATION" is making remarks about going anywhere. Do not ask and posted that H4 will go up. It did made a wick to the upside and is currently going back on it self.
I think that we were talking about different things here. Have a look at this post and see if it clears up things.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #114,800
  • Jan 8, 2021 1:43pm Jan 8, 2021 1:43pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} just because we are from Hong Kong and has lowest cost in trading HSI
It is a good market to watch but not so suitable to scalping with offshore broker spreads.
I see 1400 points, (14.00) on my platform,0 commissions btw. Thus I focus on XAUUSD and US30 which are suitable to scalping.
Although I heard that it is posibble to negotiate with the broker and they can lower the spread but add commissions. There are really some golden shots happening during the asian session on HSI. So I keep an eye on it for the future plans.
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