Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2774 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #55,461
  • Jan 8, 2021 1:38am Jan 8, 2021 1:38am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} NFP doesn't move things as it used to. Good day to trade U/Cad though with all that red.
yep, i know. BUT just on the off chance.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,462
  • Jan 8, 2021 1:49am Jan 8, 2021 1:49am
Good morning everyone,

Getting rdy for the trade.

I am still locked in with Tuesday's setup as i had no idea so far how to come out of it hah. Swap is increasing. So its already more than half of what i would normally had expected with a +5 winner ($150 at this size), swap (about -$90 so far). But no problem.

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  • #55,463
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:23am Jan 8, 2021 2:23am
Quoting billytt
we used the winnings to make more money. If price retraces which it will , we close either both trades for a small profit or close the 2nd trade. Thats how we progress. To make traes better we look for better entries not just breaks.
Understand. But you then probably use another method/entry trigger for this, knowing where chances are higher than just moving +10 (if thats your normal break stat) to even move at least +10 further more often than not.

For sure this would still require you to have a plan where to cut it. If the trade reaches your first point (+10) where you would add to it, it then retraces back to -9, okay then no problem. You had two trades closed for +1 overall. All good.

BUT, this is a two side of a coin. You should also need to know where to cut your loss if the trade instantly just moves against you not even reaching to +10 at all.

But again, my main concerns so far are about IF and HOW i would be able to get away with a 5% at the end of the month by ONLY trading the BillyBar setup WITHOUT doing at least this kind of compounding adding on to a trade. (What i understand from post 1, "they all work").

So without me going to find a way how to clear the counters for +- break even or having some other plan how to then make back a tons of lost points i had to take on the fails, well then it will get hard to end up positive.

Anyways i see we have a range established on the BillyBar now, 20.3 here. Looks choppy, a lot of wicks around + NFP. Should probably not trade it (that also would mean 1 potential less winner). If you only doing around 20 Trades a months 1 per day. One left out only is nice if you miss out the loser hahah.
  • #55,464
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:29am Jan 8, 2021 2:29am
Quoting Avery
{quote} Understand. But you then probably use another method/entry trigger for this, knowing where chances are higher than just moving +10 (if thats your normal break stat) to even move at least +10 further more often than not. For sure this would still require you to have a plan where to cut it. If the trade reaches your first point (+10) where you would add to it, it then retraces back to -9, okay then no problem. You had two trades closed for +1 overall. All good. BUT, this is a two side of a coin. You should also...
Morning Avery,

I might have misunderstood your writing. Though it would seem you would close out for -8 total in that scenario? First trade is now at +1. Second trade is at -9. Correct me if I am wrong

W
  • #55,465
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:34am Jan 8, 2021 2:34am
Quoting Avery
{quote} Understand. But you then probably use another method/entry trigger for this, knowing where chances are higher than just moving +10 (if thats your normal break stat) to even move at least +10 further more often than not. For sure this would still require you to have a plan where to cut it. If the trade reaches your first point (+10) where you would add to it, it then retraces back to -9, okay then no problem. You had two trades closed for +1 overall. All good. BUT, this is a two side of a coin. You should also need to know where to cut your...
How many times have i posted that, I AM GOOD AT FIXING FAILS.

If we know that a pair is almost guaranteed to move a certain minimum amount, ie cable 50 points, we can trade it.
we will have easy days and harder days
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,466
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:38am Jan 8, 2021 2:38am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Morning Avery, I might have misunderstood your writing. Though it would seem you would close out for -8 total in that scenario? First trade is now at +1. Second trade is at -9. Correct me if I am wrong W

Hi W. first lets forget spread, margin etc.
Lets make it even easier. forget stats for the moment.
we enter a trade and it makes 20 points. let us then add an extra trade. if this makes 20 great we now have 20 + whatever.

we enter a trade and it makes 20, we enter a second trade but it drops to minus 15, so we close both trades for a net profit of +5. (5 is a win).
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,467
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:49am Jan 8, 2021 2:49am
Quoting billytt
e/u hasnt broken the 00-00 range yet, which is 38. lets see what happens RE:- compounding, lets say at 12 intervals. t 07-21 edit at 07-34. cable & a/u have already broken the 00-00 range
time now 08-46.
this is what happened e/u
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low broke . do we enter a second trade at 1 ?it did after 1, to make points, do we close 2nd trade?

hope you can see what i am getting at.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,468
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:53am Jan 8, 2021 2:53am
Quoting Avery
{quote} Understand. But you then probably use another method/entry trigger for this, klot of wicks around + NFP. Should probably not trade it (that also would mean 1 potential less winner). If you only doing around 20 Trades a months 1 per day. One left out only is nice if you miss out the loser hahah.
hi A, it seems to be that ur trying to trade the billy bar in isolation with no plan - other than make 5pips or lock in the range as a floating loss. If it was so easy as to just go long or short off the bar, make 5 and stop for the day, everyone would be millionaires.
billy, lem, claudia etc have all given loads of tips, pointers, ideas etc, but u need to get on demo (or use some small lot sizes) to practice some methods.
im no where near as profficient as those guys at fixing trades, but i make money trading this bar - sometimes im increasing size after a fail, or hedging down through the range every 25% to reduce the loss on a fail, going for more than 5 points, loading in (compounding) once it moves, trading a different bar to fix the fail (wickzone, us open 15min bar).
billy has given you the stats (and lots of tips), you need to go and try and make it work for u
  • #55,469
  • Jan 8, 2021 3:05am Jan 8, 2021 3:05am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi W. first lets forget spread, margin etc. Lets make it even easier. forget stats for the moment. we enter a trade and it makes 20 points. let us then add an extra trade. if this makes 20 great we now have 20 + whatever. we enter a trade and it makes 20, we enter a second trade but it drops to minus 15, so we close both trades for a net profit of +5. (5 is a win).
Hi Billy,

I am going over and over your above post, but I am struggling to make sense of it. I wonder if I am misunderstanding the scenarios presented?

My brain creates scenarios 1 and 2 from what is written in your and Avery's posts. The way I can make the numbers add up is by creating scenario 3. Is that perhaps where I am going wrong?

Cheers again

ps. made 10 points of the not Billy Bar on GU, still in the Billy Bar atm, with a counter trigger ready if it goes wrong.

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  • #55,470
  • Jan 8, 2021 3:17am Jan 8, 2021 3:17am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Hi Billy, I am going over and over your above post, but I am struggling to make sense of it. I wonder if I am misunderstanding the scenarios presented? My brain creates scenarios 1 and 2 from what is written in your and Avery's posts. The way I can make the numbers add up is by creating scenario 3. Is that perhaps where I am going wrong? Cheers again ps. made 10 points of the not Billy Bar on GU, still in the Billy Bar atm, with a counter trigger ready if it goes wrong. {image}
Hi W, sorry for the confusion.
i am trying to simplify it.
your post is excellent.
IF trade 1 is +20 and you add a second trade. IF this retraces shut both trades as long as trade 1 is still in profit.
That is the simplest and only trouble is you need that first trade to have a trigger.

i am not even going near countering yet lol

edit, i think i did post this but if not.
my first posts were saying 10 then 12 increments,
lets say we are on 12 intervals. We have first trade and then the second trade is at 24 and not 12. this will adjust your odds/probabilities but still workable.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,471
  • Jan 8, 2021 3:30am Jan 8, 2021 3:30am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi W, sorry for the confusion. i am trying to simplify it. your post is excellent. IF trade 1 is +20 and you add a second trade. IF this retraces shut both trades as long as trade 1 is still in profit. That is the simplest and only trouble is you need that first trade to have a trigger. i am not even going near countering yet lol edit, i think i did post this but if not. my first posts were saying 10 then 12 increments, lets say we are on 12 intervals. We have first trade and then the second trade is at 24 and not 12. this will adjust your...
Thanks Billy

Regarding your edit on your above post. Is this what you mean?
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Apologies for the question/picture overload. I learn quicker when I can visualise it.

(Also got the +10 on the Billy Bar) Made a whopping 2p today

Wizz
  • #55,472
  • Jan 8, 2021 3:43am Jan 8, 2021 3:43am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Thanks Billy Regarding your edit on your above post. Is this what you mean?{image} Apologies for the question/picture overload. I learn quicker when I can visualise it. (Also got the +10 on the Billy Bar) Made a whopping 2p today Wizz

yes. the 24 is an example
If we already make 24 that is brilliant, we do not actually need more lol.

if we make 12 ,that too is good.
My first posts did say forget spread, margin etc. if we add a second trade at 10/12 we do have a small corridor to trade from successfully.
You need the correct set up's and to a point stops.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,473
  • Jan 8, 2021 3:45am Jan 8, 2021 3:45am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Thanks Billy Regarding your edit on your above post. Is this what you mean?{image} Apologies for the question/picture overload. I learn quicker when I can visualise it. (Also got the +10 on the Billy Bar) Made a whopping 2p today Wizz
i was on the 08-00 break too again. i haven't posted 08-00 break this week, but i trade it every day.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #55,474
  • Jan 8, 2021 3:50am Jan 8, 2021 3:50am
Quoting billytt
{quote} yes. the 24 is an example If we already make 24 that is brilliant, we do not actually need more lol. if we make 12 ,that too is good. My first posts did say forget spread, margin etc. if we add a second trade at 10/12 we do have a small corridor to trade from successfully. You need the correct set up's and to a point stops.
Perfect, thank you again
  • #55,475
  • Jan 8, 2021 3:58am Jan 8, 2021 3:58am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Learn to speak Scottish then !
"Norse-Axe Stack-Attack " This sounds Viking to me?!
  • #55,476
  • Jan 8, 2021 5:15am Jan 8, 2021 5:15am
Today worked out for +5 of the 08-15 long trigger.

I now have

Tuesday -20, Wed +5, Thu, +5, Fr, +5.

-$820 (still floating) vs +$450 booked in.

I luckily left out the trade on Monday otherwise i would be -$1700 vs +450 for this week.

In sum 2 losers (-42), 3 winners (+15).

I will leave the countered trade open from tuesday and hold it over the weekend, maybe i get some sudden clue hehe. As lem said just watching the counters maybe helps getting a feel for it.
  • #55,477
  • Jan 8, 2021 5:27am Jan 8, 2021 5:27am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} "Norse-Axe Stack-Attack " This sounds Viking to me?!
My brother discovered we have a good chunk of Nordic blood in our mix!
  • #55,478
  • Edited 5:51am Jan 8, 2021 5:36am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting Jp1
{quote} hi A, it seems to be that ur trying to trade the billy bar in isolation with no plan - other than make 5pips or lock in the range as a floating loss. If it was so easy as to just go long or short off the bar, make 5 and stop for the day, everyone would be millionaires. billy, lem, claudia etc have all given loads of tips, pointers, ideas etc, but u need to get on demo (or use some small lot sizes) to practice some methods. im no where near as profficient as those guys at fixing trades, but i make money trading this bar - sometimes im increasing...
Yes i know. I donīt trade any second setup/strategy yet because i was reading somewhere in this thread that trading the BillyBar in such isolated way would be sufficient. It is obviously that itīs not without fixing/compensating for the fails. So like you say.

I donīt want to complain about this any longer, i rather look for real help/solutions instead. As Billy already said he canīt help me with that and he is just good at fixing it, what ever this means. I respect it, but doesīt help me right.

So maybe i should go with a fixed stop loss instead of countering the BillyBar (without plan) and end up unprofitable OR trade some other methods/triggers too that helps compensating for the fails.

I do nothing about what is called compounding here yet because i would most likely only end up with double or tripple the loss instead lol...

Regarding the other triggers/methods discussed and introduced at post 1, i am not sure about too. Basically the same questions in my head. For example i donīt know what stats these triggers are based on. I see Billy writing about EJ, EU, AU an GU. The same principles i guess, buying the high break selling the low break? But what then, for example a 4 hour range will normally have a far bigger range spoken in points. So probably more capital in my trading account would be needed too.
  • #55,479
  • Edited 6:28am Jan 8, 2021 6:16am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting Wizzlebizzle
{quote} Morning Avery, I might have misunderstood your writing. Though it would seem you would close out for -8 total in that scenario? First trade is now at +1. Second trade is at -9. Correct me if I am wrong W
Its confusing stuff i know. In my example i did mean closing the first trade positive at +10. So +10 are booked in. Right at that moment you close it profitable you open another position. Now if that new opened position would retrace and start moving against you you close it at -9 at max.

You then would have lost nothing and got out with +1 in sum. Trade 1 = +10, Trade 2 = -9 (same position size for both trades).

In case the second trade would move in your favor you might profit from another +10 with it (compounded). You then would have made +20.

The advantage in this example over opening two positions of same size at the same time is that you would have risked less.

Because if you have opened 2 x 1 Lot right at the start AND the trade then instantly goes against you, you have to exit 2 Lots of loss too for sure.

I am still waiting for the MT4 feature letting you reduce lots while the trade is running. So if it goes against you you simply decrease lots if it goes in your favor you simply increase lots, lol...

But i think that isnīt what Billy was referring to. It actually doesīt makes a lot of sense to my self, now reading it again

Sorry if i did confuse, donīt take what i write too seriously. I am also still learning.
  • #55,480
  • Jan 8, 2021 6:19am Jan 8, 2021 6:19am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} My brother discovered we have a good chunk of Nordic blood in our mix!
Funny... that's reminded me to open the Christmas present from the Mrs tonight..

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