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Price action at the core = family members' discussion project

  • #661
  • Jan 3, 2021 6:09am Jan 3, 2021 6:09am
Quoting asset21
Hi Peter Yesterday I read Martin Coles Market Maker book and there were some takeaways I thought I would like to ask you about. The key takeaway from the book was that all Technical analysis will fail in the wrong run and that the only way to trade successfully for the long term was to learn the Market Maker business model and place trades in accordance to that. Accumulation, stop...
Achieving proficiency in scalping with 5 to 6 pips is following market maker model.
They are always happy to oblige you because they have a big stake in 5 to 6 pips. They get to keep upto 33% of your profit.
MM run plugins that keep looking constantly for such trades and are more than happy to oblige.
Scalping is an easy to execute trading method that does not require any indicators, risk management , signals for direction, etc.
Your eyeballs can handle it.
You have to do probability studies. That is the foremost requirement . The study will prepare you for throwing lollipops to MM plug-ins.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #662
  • Jan 3, 2021 6:41am Jan 3, 2021 6:41am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} I know I will receive criticism for saying this but I don't care .... Fair enough but ..... {image} {image} Most of what was said was speculation. Just because 'it does it' has no bearing on the truth. I can place any tool on the chart and set it up to tell me something. A trader trades the future not the past assumptions. This would be the difference between your approach displayed and my approach. I sense George simply went down a path , like so many, desiring one thing and finding some-thing. Peter
You are right.
I have traded with three arbitrarily horizontal lines drawn on the chart. Using those lines as support and resistance lines. But only for trades thatshould hit TP in 5 m TF or die by the end of 15m TF without mourning it. It works because I am not exposing my positions for more than M15. Once in a day there might be 1 or 2 big candles that may frustrate my trade death within M15. That is acceptable . I am targeting 2.00 profit factor. Unless Black Swan event happens. If it happens in your favour and you are quick to realise it, you end up making bonanza. That has happened with me a few times.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #663
  • Jan 3, 2021 6:27pm Jan 3, 2021 6:27pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} Achieving proficiency in scalping with 5 to 6 pips is following market maker model. They are always happy to oblige you because they have a big stake in 5 to 6 pips. They get to keep upto 33% of your profit. MM run plugins that keep looking constantly for such trades and are more than happy to oblige. Scalping is an easy to execute trading method that does not require any indicators, risk management, signals for direction, etc. Your eyeballs can handle it. You have to do probability studies. That is the foremost requirement . The study will...
Thanks for your reply, I have noticed that some of the more distinguished traders here such as Alan from Trading average swings and Laura from roadmap use smaller timeframes. I wonder whether the preference is just to get in and out quickly and if it fails, they know a new setup is just around the corner, making most sessions profitable or BE.

I had a look at your system, is this one your daily bread and butter? My preference would be to find something similar, (small timeframe) I think I have the opposite problem of a lot of people, I am quite well capitalised and I don't need funding, I just need a system or develop the proper understanding to get the return a month
  • #664
  • Jan 3, 2021 6:45pm Jan 3, 2021 6:45pm
Quoting simnz
{quote}
Achieving proficiency in scalping with 5 to 6 pips is following market maker model. They are always happy to oblige you because they have a big stake in 5 to 6 pips.
They get to keep upto 33% of your profit. MM run plugins that keep looking constantly for such trades and are more than happy to oblige. Scalping is an easy to execute trading method that does not require any indicators, risk management , signals for direction, etc. Your eyeballs can handle it. You have to do probability studies. That is the foremost requirement . The...
An excellent summation, yes.

I do like to use targets though for giving a leg up (not indis).

Especially in Asia when liquidity is thinner. The 5pip is sometimes all they offer, but they do offer it, I agree.


Someone could have traded the run down to the next target at 1.36600 (but I was asleep, well I had closed shop actually)
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  • #665
  • Jan 3, 2021 7:08pm Jan 3, 2021 7:08pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} An excellent summation, yes. I do like to use targets though for giving a leg up (not indis). Especially in Asia when liquidity is thinner. The 5pip is sometimes all they offer, but they do offer it, I agree. Someone could have traded the run down to the next target at 1.36600 (but I was asleep, well I had closed shop actually) {image}
TimeTells, seriously I'm sure you see that's trading for scraps making the broker happy. That's what simnz is saying.
Know what you trade
  • #666
  • Jan 3, 2021 7:36pm Jan 3, 2021 7:36pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}

TimeTells, seriously I'm sure you see that's trading for scraps making the broker happy.
That's what simnz is saying.


Hahaaaa, BW, for goodness sakes, your myopia has no limits it seems


In and out, two trades, around 16 mins

No BIG data
No bespoke indicators
No paid subscriptions for anything
Just using eyeballs & targets & a modicum of common sense


And scraps lololol


I’m a junkyard dog in trading, BW.

I LIVE for the scraps.

(9p x twice a day = ?, be satisfied is my motto, dreams are for bedtime imo )


(happy trader AND happy broker, but somehow in your thinking you see that as a negative, interesting)


While I’m off now, I have 4 hours to entertain, listen to music & shoot the breeze.

But I’ll be back just before Franky (& London) to try it on again.

But NO New York for me.
(I’m an old-timer who will be in bed, when the final volatility happens.)


And BW,
re simnz post - you missed the small data tip in there
if you just flip your ‘bounded’ thinking right upside down, a full 180, , you’ll find the hidden gems
  • #667
  • Jan 3, 2021 7:45pm Jan 3, 2021 7:45pm
Quoting TimeTells
And scraps lololol I’m a junkyard dog in trading, BW. I LIVE for the scraps. (9p x twice a day = ?, be satisfied is my motto, dreams are for bedtime imo )
For goodness sake 9times right a day every day is a torture. Just 1 or 2 a day is just right. Leave that 9times to the young manic traders. We trade our age mate.
Seriously stop staring at the jiggling price, spoils your eyesight and the kids and wifey are complaining we're ignoring them.

Quoting TimeTells
(happy trader AND happy broker, but somehow in your thinking you see that as a negative, interesting)
You must be aware by now your broker mess with the quotes, shed against your trade order, stop hunt by widening spread and that dreaded plug-in that simnz wrote about. You still happy to hand over a chunk of your profits from your hard work?
Know what you trade
  • #668
  • Jan 3, 2021 8:27pm Jan 3, 2021 8:27pm
Quoting asset21
{quote} Thanks for your reply, I have noticed that some of the more distinguished traders here such as Alan from Trading average swings and Laura from roadmap use smaller timeframes. I wonder whether the preference is just to get in and out quickly and if it fails, they know a new setup is just around the corner, making most sessions profitable or BE. I had a look at your system, is this one your daily bread and butter? My preference would be to find something similar, (small timeframe) I think I have the opposite problem of a lot of people, I am...
For my bread and butter I use EA for scalping..
For elderlies looking for some pleasure and money, I tell them to develop trading bias by using own brains and do probability studies. As part of a social project, I am looking for an EA which can take care of executing pending trades with SL controlled by TF. Eyeballs decide on entries . EA executes pending orders, TP and SL by Time expiry. The idea is they focus just on buy or sell buttons.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #669
  • Jan 3, 2021 8:34pm Jan 3, 2021 8:34pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} For my bread and butter I use EA for scalping.. For elderlies looking for some pleasure and money, I tell them to develop trading bias by using own brains and do probability studies. As part of a social project, I am looking for an EA which can take care of executing pending trades with SL controlled by TF. Eyeballs decide on entries . EA executes pending orders, TP and SL by Time expiry. The idea is they focus just on buy or sell buttons.
So you have a successful scalping EA? what is it?
  • #670
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:11pm Jan 3, 2021 9:11pm
Quoting Profitgrowth
{quote} So you have a successful scalping EA? what is it?
I have nothing more to add. Whole system is already revealed. Doing Probability study and using your own brains is the requirement. FF is full of effortless success systems .
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #671
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:26pm Jan 3, 2021 9:26pm
Quoting Profitgrowth
{quote} So... what has this got to do with trading? Seriously, is that the best you can come up with? well, i guess you've proved what a fake fraud you are, when anyone tries to engage in a cordial way, suppose i should have taken more notice of the following comment.says it all. @PeterCaleb -- you joined FF middle of last month and are already going on 200 posts. Since joining you post 10-20 times every day. After all those years as an "experienced trader" what bug crawled up your ass on Nov. 17, 2020 that caused you to proclaim your new mission...


Profitgrowth,

No, sorry all wrong again. I just sat in your chair to see how it might look. I do have a sense of humor you know. I'm old NOT dead. Hihihihiii.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #672
  • Edited 11:48pm Jan 3, 2021 11:37pm | Edited 11:48pm
======================================
To set the record straight here - I am in no way selling or soliciting anything here in this space. I am in NO WAY making any recommendations or giving advice whatsoever in any form. This is purely for educational purposes and you are fully responsible for what you do with the information presented. You should research and backtest fully before trying anything I discuss here.
======================================

Transition trade and value trade

Genuinely professional traders with real life competence are not concerned about what is in a novice's account. No. Nor are they focusing on some broker's "Order Book" displayed publicly. Why not? They know that what worked 1000yrs ago, STILL works today. And it's NOT a broker's "Order Book" displayed publicly. And they're not interested in getting into arguments with less knowledgeable or competent traders. Why?

It is --- any action tells 100 different stories. Pick the correct story and you know exactly what will happen next. All YOU need to do is wait and be ready to act.

Simple to one person is very complicated to another. This has nothing to do with your brain chemistry in itself but the persistent lack of motivation to learn. This comes from a deeper lacking. It usually takes between 60-90 days for a concept/idea to be absorbed and internalized properly by your brain. And at that pace, you would expect the person to be operating each day to learn, rather than looking for shortcuts and 'cheat sheets'.

What I write here will not appeal to some people. For some, they like the idea that they are not speculating. They like to call it something else but it is speculating. If someone operates under the guise that "technical analysis" and "price action" are all you need then you are living in a bubble and we all know what happens to a bubble ..... eventually.

So I write this in the effort to help people see that if you are involved in FX but try to do it inside a bubble, then you are at a HUGE disadvantage to other "retail traders" (for lack of a better term). If you are skeptical then eg - go read "Unknown Market Wizards: The Best Traders You've Never Heard of" and you'll see yourself in a rather different light. I am not soliciting it, it's simply a tool to show people who seem to have a lot to "say", that I don't talk about 'pie in the sky' stuff that is unrealistic or untested. Indeed there ARE traders who put on million dollar or multi-million dollar positions in all markets. You would need to be very naive to think/feel/believe this is not true.

The Transition Trade - Some people know it relating to Risk ON/OFF. And some may be aware that it involves spread or pairs trading. Perhaps some who are new to trading do not know, you can setup an account with a broker in another country. And some may or may not know, that some banks offer Multi-currency accounts (Higher spread but still effective way of banking/trading). The basic idea is to arrange a portfolio in a way where, in a single trading day (start of open to end of close) of majority of markets, you 'line up your ducks in a row'. In some ways this involves correlation, volatility, volume control and market activity/marketing of price.

Let's say you have 10 markets you want to or like to trade. Could be FX pairs only or a mix of FX and other asset classes. The basic idea here is to do one trade then another (basically straight away after it if/when possible) then another then another and so on. A good trader can do five or six in a row and a great trader can do .... well, how much patience do you have? So while you, an aspiring FX trader is putting on ONE trade order etc with ONE trade setup, another person who is seeing more of what is happening, is successfully making or creating a run-on effect, as in a domino effect, of many trade orders held within a stream of many trade setups. And they do this by risking as much as or LESS than you do. By doing this you achieve 2 EXTREMELY imperative goals -

1. You can dance around the 'market maker' model idea and methodology, so apart from usual transaction costs (spread x2 and commissions when /where applicable), all you need to do is trade your trades and watch one extra screen or window to "manage" the onflow.
2. You apply compound interest to TIME. Most people have heard of compound interest on numbers and money, but rarely do they think of time as a commodity in the most REAL sense. Re: time they always assume that C.I. is just the "use" of money over time.

I am in no way saying this approach is new. No. But it requires of the trader something you CANNOT EVER hope to get from just "technical analysis" and "price action". Or as I said - living, working and thinking in a bubble. That something is ... being objective. Standing OVER the situation (instead of standing under it all the time and being behind the curve) so you can see what's on the horizon from as many perspectives as possible (without exploding your brain anyway hihihihii). Does it require a bit more work? Sure it does. But trading IS NOT what people think it is. If you trade a forward market (Spot FX IS a forward market) then you are trying to determine IF a price movement will go up (increase in noted value) or go down (decrease in noted value). Therefore, FORWARD steps into the future. Unlike certain futures markets and other markets, where you actually take physical delivery of something, Spot FX is a cash-on-cash environment. So there is usually no expectation of anything delivered, unless you are a money changer in the real world of course.

Transition trades are seamless and do or do not take correlations into account depending on the context. Some traders I know do not use correlation as they love using other tools instead. The transition trade amplifies what is already there without you having to "invent" an EA or a new type of indicator. It's pure Compounding interest hard at work. An example in the real world that most traders have probably heard of is - George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller and their famous 1992 GBP trade. Using a style of management known as 'profit-on-profit' they were buying as it went up waiting for other markets to respond then placing sell orders "to go". This gave their core orders positive slippage and they were primed for the reversal. To add here, this trade was also a value trade. The noted value of the GBP had overreached for a very long time and Soros waited til other markets were 'good-to-go" before taking an initial position for the trade setup.

The value trade

As discussed previously, George has a methodology based on setups that to me, would qualify as a value trade. The two criteria are -

1. Can be detected, tested and repeatedly observed within a financial market from the onset of its market origin. So choose a market you like trading, choose a setup that seems to repeat, then go back as FAR into history of that individual market as you can go. The usual status achieved for a value trade is 500 to 1000 times from its market's inception. And this leads to ....
2. Possess a naturally occurring succession rate that is "built into" the individual market in question. For this to be happening, the market is out of its "new" status (think of it as the honeymoon period) and has achieved market presence. In simple terms, lots of participants now have it in their "to watch" list.

This type of movement of the market is prone to the larger participants transitioning and producing 'run-on' trades. THIS is why they trade them, usually both ways.

Context is KEY.

Below is context in action ....

Let's say you're an aspiring trader and you want to learn.

Here is one perception of what you may learn from many people ...


Attached Image



This pic shows you a list of targets, trailing stop losses and ongoing price action. And I'd say most would agree that's a fair list to work with. And now, let's revisit a 4HR overview chart ....


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Now, for your own education, use the list above to play through this market pic to see how much you really understand about your own perspective.

And now, here is a recent screenshot I showed previously on this thread ....


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And here is my view (I have used a pic from someone else here as it does a perfectly good job in helping me explain all this)


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And here is that same list as before, only NOW, think of each line item as a TARGET for a trade setup or observation point. So while many people use SFP (Self Fulfilling Prophecy) stylized methods and tools, I am watching many markets, many points of reference and can see HOW other markets influence the conventional wisdom. Does that mean I never trade 'with the momentum'? No of course not but for me, I am not a speculator. So although I MAY trade the same 'pullback' or reversal etc etc as others, I am not as audacious as to presuppose that I'm placing an order into the market because of a bubble view type setup. I don't trade trade assumptions ONLY or PRIMARILY, I trade because I see what could be coming down the pipeline. What's the point of placing a trade today if the world has changed dramatically tomorrow. It's not fundamental analysis. It's the truth as far as I can "get to it and reach out and touch it".


Attached Image



Here is an example of how I have traded before.

A typical trading day using this approach.

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Here's your daily sessions.

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On the chart.

Now Intraday view ....


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For this style I would usually designate a set/fixed % capital per session starting with the Pacific Asian. If that seems to setup well for London, I will retain set % unchanged and trade through EU session. US session can be volatile so it just depends on how I am feeling and what I can see as "applicable".

Now here's a view that I have shown before setup on mt4, for people using mt platforms.


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So you see, knowledge is only worth something if you use it properly.

I hope that helps.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #673
  • Jan 3, 2021 11:39pm Jan 3, 2021 11:39pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
You still happy to hand over a chunk of your profits from your hard work?

I have it now I think, BW

It is not that you are being negative, as I originally thought.

We are just, opposite ‘folk”. You “glass half empty”, me “glass half full”.

Neither is right, neither is wrong. I can work with that.


So, your question “Am I still happy …”

Well, if I can get 5-7-9 pips scalping, doing it a few times per day. Yes I am.


I worked in the PC industry (not IT) back in the 80’s & 90’s, servicing hardware at large customers (inc banks).

Each year I filed a tax return, and

“handed over a chunk of my wages (profits) from my hard work”

To the ATO each year.

I just called it the cost of doing business.


I understand that you have found a way in FX, of minimising your trading costs, and which I may not have.

But that is okay, thank you.

I’m good with mine, honestly.

All the best BW.
  • #674
  • Jan 4, 2021 12:21am Jan 4, 2021 12:21am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} I have it now I think, BW It is not that you are being negative, as I originally thought. We are just, opposite ‘folk”. You “glass half empty”, me “glass half full”. Neither is right, neither is wrong. I can work with that. So, your question “Am I still happy …” Well, if I can get 5-7-9 pips scalping, doing it a few times per day. Yes I am. I worked in the PC industry (not IT) back in the 80’s & 90’s, servicing hardware at large customers (inc banks). Each year I filed a tax return, and “handed over a chunk of my wages (profits) from my...
Fair enough. Who knows what happens in the future whatever days left for us, we may change our thinking. Remember that I've put in effort on this forum to try trigger look at what's possible and to take a more wider perspective beyond what's our current status, the so-called boundless mindset. There's contrarian convergent and divergent trading on opposites of the coin to consider - that's the message. All the best TimeTells.
Know what you trade
  • #675
  • Jan 4, 2021 12:56am Jan 4, 2021 12:56am
Quoting PeterCaleb
====================================== To set the record straight here - I am in no way selling or soliciting anything here in this space. I am in NO WAY making any recommendations or giving advice whatsoever in any form. This is purely for educational purposes and you are fully responsible for what you do with the information presented. You should research and backtest fully before trying anything I discuss here. ====================================== Transition trade and value trade Genuinely professional traders with real life competence are...
Well, I have to say that this is actually an ingenious system/methodology, when you get your head around it, which i hadn't thought of before, the more you look at it and meditate on how it works, the clearer it becomes, thanks for laying it out clearly.
  • #676
  • Jan 4, 2021 2:24am Jan 4, 2021 2:24am
As funny as it is, I decided to share Unknown Market Wizards. It's a clean DL link, enjoy .....

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QzbqeuIQXJrhjEOEsYQYmxPLee1phhh9/view?usp=sharing

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #677
  • Jan 4, 2021 4:10am Jan 4, 2021 4:10am
And for further education for those people who, if you have money in the market, NEED to be knowledgeable about brokers and what goes on. I Peter NEVER did, do or will solicit any broker etc nor am I affiliated in any way with any broker or introductory broker (IB) so please do not ask me. I do know how confusing it all can be and just how confused people have been and are at present.

A-Book vs B-Book ! How Forex Brokers Make Money (Episode 1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D32tDY_e8S4

I hope it helps

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #678
  • Jan 4, 2021 4:36am Jan 4, 2021 4:36am
2 of them are still here in FF
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  • #679
  • Jan 4, 2021 11:32pm Jan 4, 2021 11:32pm
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Should I closed all positions.
Minus 25% - 50% net profit
and shift into different account
with broker????

Every single time????
  • #680
  • Jan 4, 2021 11:56pm Jan 4, 2021 11:56pm
Quoting failinforex
{image}Should I closed all positions. Minus 25% - 50% net profit and shift into different account with broker???? Every single time????


failinforex,

Whenever I have traded this approach, I "scoop out" eg 25% net profit out of that account that was made in that session and transfer into another account with same broker. This gives something to withdraw into real world while building the account. This isolates it with a 'do not touch' policy. Yes I would usually go flat after every session traded. That way IF I am too tired, feel sick or have just had enough trading for the day, I can close out the session and I'm done. Plus, at rollover, I am flat across the board, so no extra hassle or cost there. It's up to you if you choose to trade news or not, I do sometimes but VERY carefully and probably less often than more.

I hope that helps.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
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