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Advanced volume trading

  • #81
  • Jan 3, 2021 8:58am Jan 3, 2021 8:58am
Quoting remonpilip
I'm slowly switching to algorithmic/automated trading because of time and psychology. it's mentally devastating to scalp IMO
I trade manually. Algo trading is statistics based trading. Just let you know. I did spend time to build bots trading binary options. Anyone who tried this will know that the binary options brokers mess with your bot.
Know what you trade
  • #82
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:00am Jan 3, 2021 9:00am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The fundamental problem with volume is the volume from mt4 platform that retail traders work with is tick data from the broker which is mostly filtered meaning "dirty" tick data. This tick data which retail brokers label as volume is not the actual volume of transactions transacted in the interbank market. It may carry the same name of volume but they both don't mean the same thing. So any attempt to pass off this tick data as volume of transactions is wrong.
yes u r right, it's tick data.
and tick data derives from price relative to the brokers,
which means, that it is a volatility measure in essence.

and IMO how we can utilize this volatility(tick volume) is:
high volatility/high tick volume means that it has high frequency
and volume precedes price and if the price shows a wide range big bullish candle
it could mean that it is a bullish trend

usually this high frequency candle occurs during London and New York opens, but the highest Frequency occurs every day around 10am-12pm NewYork time, after that just low frequency and no activity anymore, no activity=retailers or could be big banks "manipulating" the price (overnight repo market)
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #83
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:02am Jan 3, 2021 9:02am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I trade manually. Algo trading is statistics based trading. Just let you know. I did spend time to build bots trading binary options.
yes i know, by automated i mean it can be coded and back-tested without manually back-testing it, cuz it is devastating and tedious.
I need to know a lot more about algo trading, do u only use 1 algo to trade all 28 pairs? as far as i'm concern different pairs have different behavior right?
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #84
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:08am Jan 3, 2021 9:08am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Since none of us retail traders have privy to market orders or actual inter-Bank transactions which we are not participants, isn't it correct that any reference to volume is pure speculation?
It was my way of thinking, but I am not a guru so i prefer to ask ... if someone knows exact figure probably knows much more that I know.
  • #85
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:12am Jan 3, 2021 9:12am
Quoting remonpilip
{quote} yes i know, by automated i mean it can be coded and back-tested without manually back-testing it, cuz it is devastating and tedious. I need to know a lot more about algo trading, do u only use 1 algo to trade all 28 pairs? as far as i'm concern different pairs have different behavior right?
I am not into trading forex bots. The popular one is to trade at bollinger band stddev 3, avoid red news. If I am not wrong RickM trades forex bot. You might want to discuss with him.

And Joyny who trades bots exclusively.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1049369-ai-talking
Know what you trade
  • #86
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:39am Jan 3, 2021 9:39am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I am not into trading forex bots. The popular one is to trade at bollinger band stddev 3, avoid red news. If I am not wrong RickM trades forex bot. You might want to discuss with him. And Joyny who trades bots exclusively. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1049369-ai-talking
that's a good starting point, thanks.
i have been consistently fail at finding a good algo XD (have been so in the past 6 months, sth is definitely wrong)
Steps to profitability: Collect data, money management, stay bored
  • #87
  • Jan 3, 2021 11:06am Jan 3, 2021 11:06am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Don't be too quick to comment on his post, you have overlooked one issue. 99.99% of all days liquidity is not on the chart right now. Most marker makers money is spread out over periods of the whole day or waiting for a chance to dump massive liquidity onto the market occasionally. In the mean time, a group of retail traders can move the market and we can trade with them as well for short periods till the big money is applied. As an example, EURUSD on Friday about 3.30 hours after London open had volume for about 45 minutes at only 1/4 average...
I’m not sure what your idea is in terms of how many pips it takes to move especially a highly trades asset such as eur/usd, but you need understand that it takes billions to move it even just a 100 pips. We retail traders have no effect of price end of damn story even during low trading activity. A “group of retail traders can move the market” that is the most wrong statement I’ve seen here so far on FF and I hope people don’t seriously believe this. I agree with you when you say the market makers do move liquidity into the market that is true that is there job after all, what they have to do is provide liquidity to the market and satisfy the bid-ask spread.
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #88
  • Jan 3, 2021 11:16am Jan 3, 2021 11:16am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} ... Can you please be so kind and explain me how you get this 8% ... as far as I know (but I can be wrong of course ) forex markets are not centralized and huge amounts of real money are traded outside the market?
Yes forex isn’t centralized however I’m speaking in terms of retail traders trading under brokers. These guys don’t move price. What does move price ? Number 1 are banks they control billions and billions of $. Large participants that are outside the forex market also control price at times such as the stock market. What do I mean by stock market ? Well if there is a crash on let’s say the US stock market, this will effect USD, why? Because when traders pull out of riskier assets such as the stock market they have to purchase USD and thus create demand for USD and therefore pushes it high across the forex board. I hope I helped !
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #89
  • Jan 3, 2021 11:38am Jan 3, 2021 11:38am
Lekkim, will you be posting anything for market open or a commentary for any new trades, cheers, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #90
  • Jan 3, 2021 11:50am Jan 3, 2021 11:50am
Quoting KareemAliFx
We retail traders have no effect of price end of damn story even during low trading activity. A “group of retail traders can move the market” that is the most wrong statement I’ve seen here so far on FF and I hope people don’t seriously believe this.
Retail traders don't participate in the interbank forex market. Imagine with 0.01lot.
Know what you trade
  • #91
  • Jan 3, 2021 11:56am Jan 3, 2021 11:56am
Again, nice to see all the activity, experiences, and knowledge being shared in the thread
I will be replying questions to me soon, also I have some comments to a lot of the areas the chat's been around today
I'm strongly considering opening a live account to trade this week and put my money where my mouth is
  • #92
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:12pm Jan 3, 2021 12:12pm
Quoting KareemAliFx
{quote} Yes forex isn’t centralized however I’m speaking in terms of retail traders trading under brokers. These guys don’t move price. What does move price ? Number 1 are banks they control billions and billions of $. Large participants that are outside the forex market also control price at times such as the stock market. What do I mean by stock market ? Well if there is a crash on let’s say the US stock market, this will effect USD, why? Because when traders pull out of riskier assets such as the stock market they have to purchase USD and thus...
Pop Quiz:

Why does demand increase for USD when there are outflows from the stock market?
  • #93
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:15pm Jan 3, 2021 12:15pm
Quoting xRedStaRx
{quote} Pop Quiz: Why does demand increase for USD when there are outflows from the stock market?
They normally run to yen as safe haven. USDJPY creeping to break 100
Know what you trade
  • #94
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:15pm Jan 3, 2021 12:15pm
Quoting xRedStaRx
{quote} Pop Quiz: Why does demand increase for USD when there are outflows from the stock market?
Because if US stock market sells will be in usd and looking to go into other markets? Also most other markets traded in usd, hehe
  • #95
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:19pm Jan 3, 2021 12:19pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} They normally run to yen as safe haven. USDJPY creeping to break 100
Quoting Lekkim
{quote} Because if US stock market sells will be in usd and looking to go into other markets? Also most other markets traded in usd, hehe
Nope.
  • #96
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:20pm Jan 3, 2021 12:20pm
Quoting Lekkim
{quote} Because if US stock market sells will be in usd and looking to go into other markets? Also most other markets traded in usd, hehe
Exactly ! That’s the beauty of usd being a safe haven
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #97
  • Edited 12:32pm Jan 3, 2021 12:22pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting xRedStaRx
{quote} {quote} Nope.
Stick with FOREX, which currency other than usd or jpy do these funds run to after they liquidate their stock position?

You can say nope but if you check your charts the current USDJPY market is trading at 2016 low
Know what you trade
  • #98
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:34pm Jan 3, 2021 12:34pm
This thread (or at least my thoughts here, is the further development of this theory/strategy): https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...n-market-flows?
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  • #99
  • Jan 3, 2021 4:19pm Jan 3, 2021 4:19pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Stick with FOREX, which currency other than usd or jpy do these funds run to after they liquidate their stock position? You can say nope but if you check your charts the current USDJPY market is trading at 2016 low
The correlation between USDJPY and the stock market has broken down since COVID, risk-off selling makes USDJPY go up, not down.

The reason why the demand for USD goes up is that stock market selling is mostly hedged, and US treasuries are the global safe haven.

In a real risk-off, all money goes to the Dollar, not the Yen. Even CHF is better for safe havens than Yen today given the reflationary story.
  • #100
  • Jan 3, 2021 4:49pm Jan 3, 2021 4:49pm
OK Lekkim, we need you with your analysis, hedge gold if need be, think most missed it but pulled the post, lost the moment, we're good to go, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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