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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,961
  • Dec 31, 2020 7:50am Dec 31, 2020 7:50am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, the trend is bullish above 1.36. I'll keep an eye on 1.3675, 1.37, and 1.3750. {image}
GBPUSD short trade 1.3675. I figured they might want to drop it before the highly anticipated 1.37 RN. GU is in an uptrend, we may see higher levels before any major correction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,962
  • Dec 31, 2020 8:22am Dec 31, 2020 8:22am
USDCHF, possible ending diagonal pattern on H1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,963
  • Dec 31, 2020 8:41am Dec 31, 2020 8:41am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, short trade. It seems like a H&Sh pattern on H1. Let's see if that's the case. {image}
EURUSD, short trade update. I added on a retest of the H&Sh neckline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,964
  • Dec 31, 2020 8:51am Dec 31, 2020 8:51am
EURUSD, the bias remains bullish above 1.22. But I'll keep an eye on that TL. If EU breaks below that TL and we see a daily close below 1.2150/1.22, that will open up 1.20.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,965
  • Dec 31, 2020 9:45am Dec 31, 2020 9:45am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, short trade. It seems like a H&Sh pattern on H1. Let's see if that's the case. {image}
EURUSD, short trade update. That H&Sh pattern worked well. I've adjusted my TP targets. This may turn into a swing trade. But it's always wise to do partial TP after a decent move (50-100 pips). If you took this trade based on my H&SH pattern, consider this your New Year's gift.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,966
  • Dec 31, 2020 9:58am Dec 31, 2020 9:58am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, possible ending diagonal pattern on H1. {image}
USDCHF, long trade 0.88, that ending diagonal pattern worked well. UCHF has overhead R @ 0.8850, 0.89, and 0.8920.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,967
  • Dec 31, 2020 10:24am Dec 31, 2020 10:24am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, the bias remains bullish above 1.22. But I'll keep an eye on that TL. If EU breaks below that TL and we see a daily close below 1.2150/1.22, that will open up 1.20. {image}
EU is testing the TL I pointed out earlier. Let's see how it reacts.
  • #10,968
  • Dec 31, 2020 10:36am Dec 31, 2020 10:36am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURGBP, short trade {image}
EURGBP, short trade update, S @ 0.89.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,969
  • Dec 31, 2020 10:37am Dec 31, 2020 10:37am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EU is testing the TL I pointed out earlier. Let's see how it reacts.
Excellent work S.

Very interesting to see today's PA and perhaps key reversals ahead of new years day. It is a probably good idea for everyone to watch positions before the close as there might be some violent moves on the open.

Although unlikely, I can see potential for pairs like AU / NU / GU to get an absolute clattering, perhaps some kind of black swan circuit breaker style move. The USD is seriously oversold and pairs are touching into MN supply levels.

Anyway, all the best and have a great new year and back in a month, from the quarantine hotel in Thailand.
  • #10,970
  • Dec 31, 2020 10:46am Dec 31, 2020 10:46am
EU needs to break blow that TL and 1.22 today or on Monday, otherwise it may go up again. S @ 1.22, 1.2150, 1.21, and 1.2075.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,971
  • Dec 31, 2020 10:52am Dec 31, 2020 10:52am
Quoting shahab8b
EU needs to break blow that TL and 1.22 today or on Monday, otherwise it may go up again. S @ 1.22, 1.2150, 1.21, and 1.2075. {image}
Shorts look good. It's the first bearish (forming) candle since the election night. Heavy divergence into 1.23.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,972
  • Dec 31, 2020 11:08am Dec 31, 2020 11:08am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Excellent work S. Very interesting to see today's PA and perhaps key reversals ahead of new years day. It is a probably good idea for everyone to watch positions before the close as there might be some violent moves on the open. Although unlikely, I can see potential for pairs like AU / NU / GU to get an absolute clattering, perhaps some kind of black swan circuit breaker style move. The USD is seriously oversold and pairs are touching into MN supply levels. Anyway, all the best and have a great new year and back in a month, from the quarantine...
Thanks C.

I agree. This may be the beginning of a major correction. But it's very early to say that. and EU is the only one tanking atm. GU is holding up pretty well and other majors are doing some minor corrections. I think EU drop might be due to the end of the year profit taking as large institutions have been heavily long EU.

Wishing you a happy, healthy New Year! New year, new adventures! Have a safe flight to Thailand.
  • #10,973
  • Edited 11:57am Dec 31, 2020 11:42am | Edited 11:57am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks C. I agree. This may be the beginning of a major correction. But it's very early to say that. and EU is the only one tanking atm. GU is holding up pretty well and other majors are doing some minor corrections. I think EU drop might be due to the end of the year profit taking as large institutions have been heavily long EU. Wishing you a happy, healthy New Year! New year, new adventures! Have a safe flight to Thailand.
Cheers S

The black swan thought is highly unlikely. If anything we can get a solid pullback and we can rejoin these trends.

This has been a great 2nd half of the year (thanks to this thread). The focus for 2021 will be heavily on trend following and bit less on the counters and 2021 should be even better. Perhaps 80% trend retracement trades and 20% counter reversals would be the ideal formula.

If anyone has ideas how to get the mind to fully focus on trend trading I am all ears.

Have a great one and all the best for New Year!
  • #10,974
  • Dec 31, 2020 12:08pm Dec 31, 2020 12:08pm
Talking of trend trading, how did we miss this setup on EA last week!? Anyway, have a great one.
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  • #10,975
  • Dec 31, 2020 12:50pm Dec 31, 2020 12:50pm
Happy New Year S & C.. wish you all the best in this year..
  • #10,976
  • Dec 31, 2020 1:12pm Dec 31, 2020 1:12pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Cheers S The black swan thought is highly unlikely. If anything we can get a solid pullback and we can rejoin these trends. This has been a great 2nd half of the year (thanks to this thread). The focus for 2021 will be heavily on trend following and bit less on the counters and 2021 should be even better. Perhaps 80% trend retracement trades and 20% counter reversals would be the ideal formula. If anyone has ideas how to get the mind to fully focus on trend trading I am all ears. Have a great one and all the best for New Year!
Thanks C. I'm happy to hear that your performance has improved based on the methods we practice here. You are a great trader with years of experience . You were so quick to pick up on some of the methods I use. This makes me wondering if this approach is more suited to seasoned traders. Because we are discretionary traders and knowing the mechanics of the method is one thing, but executing it correctly is another thing. In order to properly apply these methods, one has to have a deep understanding of price action, S/R, supply & demand, Fibonacci levels, trend lines, and classic candlestick formations and chart patterns. Not to mention, mastering risk management, understating the the concept of probabilities, and developing a correct mindset (i.e. no impulsive trading, revenge trading, or averaging losers, etc.). I am saying this based on several pm's I have received. I've realized some traders are using these methods but their execution is very questionable. I mean you have to learn to walk before you run. I'm wondering if this thread does more harm than good. I wish there was a way to limit the view of this thread to a selected group of traders who meet the minimum requirement.

Anyways, back to the topic of trend retracement trades versus counter trend trades, I fully agree with you. I also want to point out that we can always have different methods (in addition to the confluence levels method) in our toolbox and pull the one we need based on the market condition. Maybe we can work on a simple flowchart that helps us.
  • #10,977
  • Dec 31, 2020 1:14pm Dec 31, 2020 1:14pm
I am reading Coreg2004 materials, Things are getting more clear now.
Thanks, shahab8b.
Next few months I will Draw Supply and demand on any market that is on my trading list. I will post here hope Shabab will not mind.
This way I will get more proficient.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,978
  • Dec 31, 2020 1:16pm Dec 31, 2020 1:16pm
Attached Image
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,979
  • Dec 31, 2020 1:31pm Dec 31, 2020 1:31pm
It seems GU wants 1.37 or 1.3750 before any correction.
  • #10,980
  • Dec 31, 2020 1:55pm Dec 31, 2020 1:55pm
I'm officially signing out for the year.

Wishing you and your loved ones a safe, healthy, happy, and prosperous new year!

Some of us went through difficult and challenging times in 2020. But always remember: "no matter how hard the past is, you can always begin again" Jack Kornfield.
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