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  • #621
  • Dec 31, 2020 2:39am Dec 31, 2020 2:39am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}

No holds barred, balanced and accurate review everytime. Happy New Year.



Hi BW, well you have good humour, thank you and good wishes also.


(I will post something else later as a reply to you, but it will be generic and not towards yourself but to all traders in a sense)
  • #622
  • Dec 31, 2020 3:12am Dec 31, 2020 3:12am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
You are not part of this new wave fib family and you don't trade his methodology despite posting pretty history charts. It's not good enough for you, George's methodology does not compel you to risk placing trades. You can't convince others if you can't convince yourself. RickM wrote George's TMA is the wrong tool, lost hundreds of traders lots of money. Rest of his forthright comments here. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13324868


Hi BW, now it did seem that you took great umbrage at my post.


And you also felt compelled to requote the following.

About George’s first thread.

Am I defending George. Well yes I guess, but not in the way you might imagine.

I am defending everybody against cruel & maybe unjust suggestion, that implies a total way of looking at a person (or their methodology).


quote
“lost hundreds of traders lots of money.”


Well I don’t survey hundreds of traders, or any traders really, to find out their trading experience and profit/loss situation.

So I cannot know if this is true. I also have no reason to say it is false.

Just that any numerical statement has behind it, a survey sample.

Which may be limited, let me explain.



The Statistics & Numbers game is widely used to assess things.

But often they are quite narrowly assessed.


Because the worth of any statistic is found in the SAMPLE SIZE investigated.

Which is often the problem with statistics.

PLUS the narrow selection of the group being surveyed.
  • #623
  • Dec 31, 2020 3:18am Dec 31, 2020 3:18am
For example

In a full & massive survey it might be found that “hundreds” of traders also MADE money from George’s TMA/LWMA trading.

Who knows. The survey you mentioned only mentions traders who did not make money.

It does not mention even ONE trader that made money.

That always seems surprising to me that there is 100% of one group and NONE of another.

In life that never seems to be the case. In the biggest picture.


George’s original offerings, as I understood it, were based on his “swing targets”.

(And, as George mentioned it, he only factored that particular tma indicator at 2% of his live trading decision)


It was … Targets, targets, targets. The real guts of his trading style (as I understood it).



So “IF” (who knows) there were also hundreds,
that won tma/lwma trades,
then the “total statistics” would show that 50% of traders won …. and 50% of traders lost
(or any variable percentage leaning in between)

No one can know unless a full & comprehensive survey was conducted.

Else it is really a ‘closed circle’ survey.


And, even then, after all that, and whether or not it was 80% lost & 20% won - OR vice versa -
no REAL statement can ever be made on its overall efficacy.

As

Most traders would also be aware that, in the end, with trading,
it ALL gets back to one MOST salient point.

Which is.

It is the “TRADER” themselves …………….. that actually wins or loses (not the indicator).

(for example 2 traders might utilise the same method/indi)
(and one win and the other lose)



George must have had his reasons for starting this thread on his further expanded observations.


I took it (maybe wrongly) that the original tma/lwma was a reversal trade potential setup.


Targets though could alternately be traded, from them OR to them.

And the same with waves & fibs I guess. You can trade from them, or to them.


But I also feel I am able discuss the waves & fibs idea … even if … I don’t utilise them myself in my trading.


And I am certainly NOT suggesting any trader should use any idea, and I am also not recommending ANY set method, or ANY particular indi.)

Happy New Year BW and to all
  • #624
  • Dec 31, 2020 3:38am Dec 31, 2020 3:38am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Nope you defended your close old timer buddy George. Not EVERYBODY. I did not write "lots of people lost money" somebody else wrote that. I merely requote their views. I am always honest, balanced and unbiased that people can trust.

You are SO wrong BW.

Again.

You did NOT read.

And if you did, you did NOT understand.

I did not defend George exclusively.

But you missed that.

Ask yourself why you missed that VERY point.

And then you will understand your OWN bias.

Rather than merely assuming (and incorrectly) mine.

(And your Old Timer jibe shows me you have some internalised pain that you need to get out - onto someone else.

Your problem could be comprehension maybe, but that is ok. All is well.
  • #625
  • Dec 31, 2020 4:03am Dec 31, 2020 4:03am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
I am always accurate and try my best to be on point with my usage of words.


I think it might be your comprehension BW.


And, sadly, anyone can be “accurate” with a jibe.

That is often its purpose.
  • #626
  • Dec 31, 2020 4:21am Dec 31, 2020 4:21am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Is it accurate to use the word buddy ? Is it accurate to use the word old timer ? Is it accurate to point out you did not defend EVERYBODY as you claimed ? (Post a link here to prove you defended others as well.) Are you claiming making all those posts above which are clearly defending George not accurate ? How is it that when the words used are accurate that you claim that I am biased ? Have I written something that I wrote that's untrue or inaccurate, perhaps you might want to point it out then explain it clearly ? Or is it that you prefer...
You have completely misunderstood Pete.
Pete was referencing to members of the forum who have had to put up with complete bollox from unsubstantiated claims.
Pete himself was accused, then suspended of having multiple usernames. Completely false, the accuser was proved wrong and Pete reinstated.
I stood up for Pete, as did others.
I’m disappointed in the quote from Rick, but you had to to repeat it knowing that Pete and George are trading buddy’s. That tells me all I need to know regards your character so in all honesty, you can fuck off.
  • #627
  • Edited 9:08pm Dec 31, 2020 6:33am | Edited 9:08pm
Social media (as they call it) is not really a very good medium to display specific things that are ahead. But we shall strive to push forward.

Popular trading today is mostly based on what is called "Price Behaviorism". It's all the rage now and it's all the usual stuff you see on sites like this and on the internet. George did a pretty good job, as a price behaviorist, to pull the covers off what is a rather complex layering of many moving parts in a global monetary system.

To throw it in now, the Fib-Waves approach for those who are still interested (from my seated position with George's and my input added).

First, to say this - using mathematical designs on the market you trade is not going to suit everyone's thinking. If you find yourself struggling, just step back and remember what I just said. Now after saying that, the CONCEPT behind it is based on observations of certain things that repeat over and over again. Again, THIS is a very important thing to make note of. The rest is personal choice of how YOUR thinking and what the market does, superimpose and work together. If this happens, you have a good approach that agrees with what has been happening. Over the years, many people have tried to get too precise and have missed the big picture. Of course "precise" is itself relative as the context in which it's being applied is key here. Is it in association with previous recent or old highs? Is it to do with entry? Is it the range of push up or down on price? Has it spent a lot of time doing something specific? How are concurrent markets plotting with it? Do you have a flow-through from one pair to another or from one currency base to another? It's all relative.

It's all relative.

Should - is a very problematic word in the world of trading the financial markets.

OK, Fibs_waves =

I'll start with what people are familiar with as that will help .....


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is a basic overview of what George showed you, me, us. Take note of the upper, lower boundaries of market activity. Observe each "hole" being filled as the market stabilizes and then moves on. From this view, you could make any accountable story of the WHY. From George's perspective, the MM is pushing, probing and collecting input and output orders (Buy/Sell market orders, Limit orders, timed orders. Participants getting in or out of the market = ALL containing POTENTIAL ACTIVITY.) Depending on how you want to approach your trading, you may choose to observe multiple time frames in there too.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This one gives a great example of "stages". Once you begin to place a few screens in front of you to observe different time frames in real time, you will see how they fit inside each other. The explanations inside the pic are pretty clear. If you draw or imagine a straight horizontal line going right across from top left to top right, you have just observed a higher time frame perspective in greater detail.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This next one is another simpler view of wave within wave within wave. TF within TF within TF. As well as the bigger picture of transition trading and value trading in motion. Keeping in mind that concepts like trend, momentum, slope, direction, highs and lows ..... are all relative. Why? One person's high is another person's exit.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Oscillating structure is key to understanding waves as George was seemingly approaching it all. Although there are indeed other more simple ways to deal with this, if I was still trying to learn, I would want to keep it simple for now. So let's just deal with what's already here. One main aspect to consistently observe is formulated momentum. This is by design to adjust people's preferences in the market to make them unwind their orders despite their "system of approach" telling them to 'stay the course'. Eg - Many people "uninitiated" into the world of trading, generally have a bias to one direction or the other. So when designed momentum generates movement, it looks just like those moves on that chart pic, where it looks overwhelming and "better" than what they already have. Although many may already be aware of this and call it something else, it's still key to appreciating what's going on.

Q - When you try to fill a bucket with water, do you try and fill it to its brim, or do you expect the water to keep filling the bucket despite the highest reasonable level already being reached?


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Relative Depth Perception is a natural and persisting element in trading. Whether you use this or that indicator, whether you use Tf's or Tick chart, Market profile etc you cannot escape it. There is a notable and VERY obvious difference when the market is going basically sideways compared to extremely steep. Some people prefer to be first in the door while others like to stroll on in.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When you look at a chart you generally see what everyone sees. Especially when looking into the past. Some people will ask why some wave cycles last longer than others. As much as I would like to just agree with people who say that the market is balancing itself out, in a perfect world where FX was the only market, where it is isolated and self sustaining ... sure, that would indeed be true. But the FX market is part of something bigger. And it interacts with the rest of the world. This is a fact of trading and it would be unwise to ignore it. So, to a M15 chartist and trader, it may in fact be a 5 count move up. However, stages of each move up are pushed and pulled. And this is why your "perfect setups" idea is fiction. What you see in pics online made with just a line (Or other contrived charts) are not respecting the particular intricacies of each move and so, are misleading. Each progressive wave is compounding on its own probability of completing. If the market makes a move "beyond its previous strong high/low" there will most certainly be a reason that is NOT prone to being obvious on the chart. Some people call it "overshoot" or "overextended" and that's fine, however, in truth, the very real nature of it is based on other markets acting like a see-saw between the FX asset class and themselves. While some markets (at that point in time) may be overextending, others are just gearing up for something. And this, I suspect, is why people get interested in Elliot Wave and here with Fibs-Waves. The linear and physical representation to your eyes is registering the ups and downs as the market progresses on its way. But behind the scenes is the internal waves of smaller and smaller transactions based NOT on price but on TIME. So even if you trade the 1Hr chart TF, your competence must be based on what I just explained as well as R:R, setup and timing your order. A person placing their money "into the market" MUST respect the fact that Risk, Return on investment, Rate of return and the premise used to justify one's participation, ALL require the use of a gradient scale of managed acceptance. Otherwise, regardless of how you dress it up and how "good" you are at trading, you are merely speculating..... and that is NOT trading.

End of "Part 2" I guess.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #628
  • Dec 31, 2020 6:51am Dec 31, 2020 6:51am
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE AROUND THE WORLD.

I hope you and your kin are all healthy and safe.

I hope you enjoy the celebrations.

PeterCaleb
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #629
  • Dec 31, 2020 7:48am Dec 31, 2020 7:48am
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End of part 3
  • #630
  • Edited 9:14am Dec 31, 2020 9:03am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting TimeTells
This thread has long since discussed any of his stuff despite George specifically requesting posters to do so on his first post on page one. {quote} ---------------------- Back to George. I am not part of this new wave-fib family. And I do not trade this methodology (my choice). But a quick “3 minute” look this morning at George’s fave pair, from yesterday, ‘might’ indicate what he was showing readers in this new thread. (maybe I have the wave counts wrong - I’ve never used them sorry). And George’s fave fibs also show up on this chart below. Mik2012...
Hi TimeTells, George's 127% fib has a lot potential than what people on here post incorrectly to mess it up. IF done correctly this is how accurate the future expansion targets reveal itself as shown in the attached GJ pics. To acquire this level of competence it starts with learning and understanding market structure.
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Know what you trade
  • #631
  • Dec 31, 2020 10:14am Dec 31, 2020 10:14am
When I posted that last pic bet nobody believe market will blast the expansion target up there, not possible on new years night.
Happy new year
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Know what you trade
  • #632
  • Dec 31, 2020 11:48am Dec 31, 2020 11:48am
Quoting RickM
Peter, I just completed a Eight hour live trading session last night and finished up at 1am in the morning, some of us actually trade for a living and need to sleep. You won’t find any assessments from me about his moving averages because I never thought they added value to his work. His work in the beginning in regard to price expansion was brilliant. Cheers
The 50 and 200 SMA is used by many of the big banks so price often reacts to the either as Sup/res ore as a trigger...
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #633
  • Dec 31, 2020 1:55pm Dec 31, 2020 1:55pm
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} The 50 and 200 SMA is used by many of the big banks so price often reacts to the either as Sup/res ore as a trigger...
Hi Sniper

Good point, these MA’s do cause price to react as well. Another good trading day yesterday wasn’t it, while other traders were on the turps, we were busy on the charts making pips.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #634
  • Dec 31, 2020 3:37pm Dec 31, 2020 3:37pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Sniper Good point, these MA’s do cause price to react as well. Another good trading day yesterday wasn’t it, while other traders were on the turps, we were busy on the charts making pips. Cheers
Toaday was even better for me,but i got in a coupple yesterday too....happy new year..
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #635
  • Dec 31, 2020 3:40pm Dec 31, 2020 3:40pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Sniper Good point, these MA’s do cause price to react as well. Another good trading day yesterday wasn’t it, while other traders were on the turps, we were busy on the charts making pips. Cheers
Price don't react to MA's or MA's cause price to react is a silly thing to say. Well calibrated MAs have the potential to mark price levels as statistical averages where price might react. Instead of straight horizontal lines drawn from nearby high lows that make no sense suggesting uniform market which is not. A couple of MA's analysed together can reveal the sentiment and directional intent of the future market. That's the value of MA. 200MA is overrated has no calibration value other than the assumption that its widely used.
Know what you trade
  • #636
  • Dec 31, 2020 5:16pm Dec 31, 2020 5:16pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi TimeTells,
George's 127% fib has a lot potential than what people on here post incorrectly to mess it up. IF done correctly this is how accurate the future expansion targets reveal itself as shown in the attached GJ pics.
To acquire this level of competence it starts with learning and understanding market structure. {image} {image} {image} {image}

Hi BW,

Well yes now we are getting somewhere, discussing what the thread was about, so the discussions I always appreciate.

And regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with its premise, even George I would venture to say would welcome disagreement in any form should it be backed up with some form of fact, verbal or visual to support an independent trader's assertion.

That is how we all progress in life.

------------

George liked the 127 & 177 fib as I remember but said it wasn't his original idea and that he had assessed it for value from another trader's videos (I cant remember their name as it wasn't here on FF). George was a quite master at fibs. In how fibs "lay" in the background of market structure.

He used to like spending hours doing this stuff, visualising & testing. Over and over, weekends included.

I haven't heard from him for a while, he was planning a month or so ago I remember to fly over with his wife and visit his son who is interstate (within Oz) and stay with them for a month as he hadn't seen them for over 3 years.

------------

Again, like with any tool (ma, lines etc) they are NOT a precision instrument that the market (price) ADHERES TO and decides to move in accord with any fib or tool.

NO ma, fib, line can ever CAUSE the market to move at its point. That is not rational.

However TRADER'S use those tools and therefore when price is 'near' any of those tools TRADER'S will enter (or exit) trades at/near those points.

Giving the impression that it is the ma/tool that caused the action.

But it was the Trader's actions NOT the tools

(I hope everyone understands my conjecture on this - however words can be misconstrued and people who say tools like MA's work - well they are also NOT wrong imo - as it is the actions & reactions of traders that DO make the tools work if you know what I mean lol).
  • #637
  • Dec 31, 2020 5:29pm Dec 31, 2020 5:29pm
In MY preferred paradigm lol () it is probably the traders, algos and then the MM who ACT when the Trader's react - that causes price movement.

And that then entices other trader's to enter or exit (incl more high frequency piggy-backing algos etc) - all cascading.


(The market also does something else - RickM explained this best imo - when there are no substantial orders at current price for the MM to work with and they go searching at speed for liquidity)


And thus we have market movement which can appear to be originally “because” of the tools a trader uses. All just imo of course.

Or as some other folks like to have as their paradigm (and quite rightly I don;t care), suggesting the market is therefore RANDOM.


None of those paradigm labels really matter, or shouldn't, to a trader imo. Just trade it.


To show what I mean, in regards to tools and reactions, here is the pic I posted on my post (first here for weeks) the other day in relation to George's Waves & Fibs.

Quoting TimeTells
{image}


And then, here is the same pic using Daily Pivots (which I DO NOT use either, the same as I don’t use fibs & waves to determine trade entry).

I post the 2nd pic to show how a confluence in multiple tools might have Traders react.
(then the algos, then the MM lol - imho) to give the impression that the tools work.

And of course, in some way, the tools DO. Because of the ‘wings of a butterfly’ effect on the market.


Again I do NOT recommend the use of any of these tools/fibs/pivs/ma’s to determine WHEN a trader should enter (or exit) a trade.

But being ‘aware’ of them and where they lie at a price above or below where the market is NOW, is just another tool also.
Attached Image
  • #638
  • Dec 31, 2020 10:11pm Dec 31, 2020 10:11pm
Quoting TimeTells
NO ma, fib, line can ever CAUSE the market to move at its point. That is not rational.
I think traders word the sentence wrongly rather than simply believe that tools cause the market to move.


Quoting TimeTells
Again, like with any tool (ma, lines etc) they are NOT a precision instrument that the market (price) ADHERES TO and decides to move in accord with any fib or tool.
This I disagree. Well researched tools with proper calibration can be precise instruments that show future price directional intent and critical price levels.

This area of research requires brains, commitment, money for research work and tenacity to accomplish. Very very few has achieved this. So yes for the majority of the traders it's normal to be skeptical this can be done so the majority opinion dominates.

I don't talk about trading because of the negativity on forum. Back up your talk with a TE and so on is the response I can do without.
Ends up we get people who did no proper research work, just dangle their pretty TE with hordes of followers do all the talking about subjects they have no work done.
I am not referring to you TimeTells. A general observation.
Know what you trade
  • #639
  • Dec 31, 2020 10:19pm Dec 31, 2020 10:19pm
Since my perspective is a little different to most people's here, I felt it good to write this .....

** Self Fulfilling Prophecy Strategy Used By Professional Long Term Traders In Light of Fibs-Waves

I sense it's really very necessary to show here that a tool is only capable of linear process. A moving average is only capable of adding left, adding left. Although it holds A LOT of information that is not easily seen at a glance, unless you have a keen eye, it still just sits there.

It's the same with Fib tools, Trend lines etc. So a certain amount of reasonable thinking needs to be used when applying it to any strategy. Whatever the reason George began his journey using Fibs, there is one very real antagonist that he will come up against......the notion of self fulfilling prophecy made public NOT by any natural presence in the financial markets, but through the widely known and accessed use and application of a tool. If you know about it then others do too.

People need to understand, regardless of their beliefs, there IS most definitely a certain amount of "liquid motion" to the markets, otherwise they would literally stop. This will tie into other things to be mentioned.

Although this idea of SFP is not new, it's not really properly understood by beginners or even seasoned veterans who claim to trade well but still insist on using tools in the same way as those people who do not possess the same level of experience. Please note here, I said experience NOT competence. One's aptitude relies truthfully on ALL factors involved, not just one factor alone.

Using Fibs, in any way, is merely an act of projection, calculation or forecast and nothing more. I will stress here the context in which you use it is MORE important. And it's because of this point, I can see merit in using George's Fib-Waves design. People should know something about me re: this - I am not and never have been anti its use. On the contrary, it could be very useful in the appropriate context and situation. My concern always arises when people insist on turning their brains off because they "need/want" to learn "it". Doing this shows you are addicted to being a minion and that is unhealthy thinking if you want to be a trader.

So SFP can either work in your favor (think for yourself) or you can just do what someone else does to the letter (Follower).

Many long term traders I know still use SFP as a gauge or as a sentiment tool. So the question needs to be asked - Once you have learned how to do what George does with Fibs-Waves, what then?

If you are a beginning trader, here and now, you must understand that 1's and 0's , dollars and cents, rule the co-operation of "has it" and "wants it". So it doesn't matter AT ALL, if you are talking about a "big player" or not, if you put $1.00 into the market.... it is read, recorded and archived without concern or interest in what happens after that. So win or lose, the outcome has the same process applied to it. Everything is accounted for, somewhere.

SFP for beginners is akin to someone saying "Follow this path and whatever happens just keep going."

You have to know what awaits you in this arena.

Genuinely professional traders with real life competence are not concerned about what is in a novice's account. No. Nor are they focusing on some broker's "Order Book" displayed publicly. Why not? They know that what worked 1000yrs ago, STILL works today. And it's NOT a broker's "Order Book" displayed publicly.

It is --- any action tells 100 different stories. Pick the correct story and you know exactly what will happen next. All YOU need to do is wait and be ready to act.

So Fibs and waves are a good 'teaching tool' (To say it loosely) until the person learns to step outside everyone's thinking (Yes even their own) and stop following and start creating space around them. But a trader needs to realize the end game here. If the final goal of action for the Fibs George (or anyone) uses, is to pick the top or bottom of a move somewhere, the implication is to forecast. And through this, an added level of management for your money needs to be used. Perhaps simply using a pro rata order check. Since the bulk of the predicable move would be over, leaving a scrap on the table "just to see what happens" could make things interesting.

Just my thoughts and impression of what can be.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #640
  • Edited 8:00am Jan 1, 2021 5:36am | Edited 8:00am
I'm a student of trading - but the market maker loads and unloads in key area's to him - but the main problem MM has is price just gets to thin and starts to gap. Attached tick chart with gaps - last hours of trading were transactions are fewer
Chart below is how I look at gbpjpy. Boxes drawn and shelves - lines added - come of the 4 hour, 1 hour down too 1 minute.
The TMA's added to see how price reacts into the pressure zones.
I also look at gaps on 50 tick chart - gaps form on spikes and also when large transactions come in.
Profit taking needs to be thought about when price is moving.
MA's normally generate a bounce of the 4 hour.
Shelves which I have drawn on the 1 minute- come of the 1 hour and 4 hour chart - seam to have the most relevance for me.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: tick - gaps.png Size: 162 KB
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