Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas | Page 547 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

COT report... futures or futures and options report? 11 replies

EA, GA, GCAD, GJ, GN - Analysis and trade ideas 11 replies

Cot - Report in application to the Forex 2 replies

Fundamental Analysis - Trade Ideas 2 replies

COT report 1 reply

Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
Exit Attachments

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,921
  • Dec 29, 2020 3:10pm Dec 29, 2020 3:10pm
Quoting C-12
On topic of 0.25RN, AUDUSD 0.7625 counter setup? No idea how I missed that long yesterday. Textbook 61.8 and demand zone.. {image}
I loaded up the same trades, short AU 0.7625 and NU 0.7150/75. But I feel like we are going heavy on counter trend trades again. We need to add some trend following trades.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4 12 29.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4 1229.png Size: 28 KB
  • #10,922
  • Dec 29, 2020 3:22pm Dec 29, 2020 3:22pm
DXY, monthly chart, seems DXY has more room to fall before any meaningful retracement, a confluence zone coming up @ 87-89.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY 12 29 u.PNG Size: 110 KB
  • #10,923
  • Edited 4:04pm Dec 29, 2020 3:31pm | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I loaded up the same trades, short AU 0.7625 and NU 0.7150/75. But I feel like we are going heavy on counter trend trades again. We need to add some trend following trades. {image} {image}
Yes it does feel like we've been fighting against the tide going counter for weeks, but it's clear these trends are quite long in the tooth.

Eventually they are going to turn into a very productive reversal more than just a 50 pip scalp. AU and NU are looking ripe for a 200+ pip corrections. Maybe New Years day will bring about something wild. Remember December 31st 2018? A good heads up we need to be careful these next few days.

Trades like USDCAD 1.28 seem a bit more like a nice retracement setup of an established D1 move rather than top/bottom picking.

As for DX I agree it looks like heading lower on that longer term chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU.png Size: 34 KB
  • #10,924
  • Dec 29, 2020 7:58pm Dec 29, 2020 7:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, long trade, I was playing the range without any directional bias. Let's see if GU can clear overhead R @ 1.35/1.3525, otherwise, it may roll over again. {image}
GBPUSD, long trade update. GU cleared above 1.35/1.3525. Levels to watch.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 12 29 ki.png Size: 42 KB
  • #10,925
  • Dec 29, 2020 8:04pm Dec 29, 2020 8:04pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, short trade taken based on the confluence level @ 0.89 {image}
USDCHF, short trade update. The trend is bearish below 0.89. Levels to watch.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH4 12 29 i.png Size: 42 KB
  • #10,926
  • Dec 29, 2020 8:53pm Dec 29, 2020 8:53pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCAD, long trade. There are some overhead R @ 1.2825 and 1.2850. {image}
USDCAD, short trade. S @ 1.2775 and 1.27
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1 12 29.png Size: 32 KB
  • #10,927
  • Dec 30, 2020 3:56am Dec 30, 2020 3:56am
I have questions
when you find a confluence and price touch the confluence level do you wait for candlesticks confirmations?
How many touch the same confluence level you open trade?

I will do backtest manually so that I can get proper confidence and a good setup. that is why I am asking these questions.
You know most of the strategy failed in a slow market, How do you avoid a slow market that is another question Probably no one can't give the appropriate answer to these questions as far as I understand. But we all have a little technique to avoid those slow market.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,928
  • Edited 4:20am Dec 30, 2020 4:10am | Edited 4:20am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCAD, short trade. S @ 1.2775 and 1.27 {image}
Yeah that was a good idea, plus nicely done on GU and USDCHF.

I going to spend a lot of time over these next few weeks building in some trend following strategies. You have to be extremely sharp to extract profits using mean revision techniques in these types of markets.

It was pretty clear last night night USD was rolling over again. It would be nice to start capturing these moves rather persistently fading them.

I am not fully sure what the solution is, but it starts with a mindset shift. There were plenty of opportunities to get on board with confluence setups.
  • #10,929
  • Dec 30, 2020 4:43am Dec 30, 2020 4:43am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yeah that was a good idea, plus nicely done on GU and USDCHF. I going to spend a lot of time over these next few weeks building in some trend following strategies. You have to be extremely sharp to extract profits using mean revision techniques in these types of markets. It was pretty clear last night night USD was rolling over again. It would be nice to start capturing these moves rather persistently fading them. I am not fully sure what the solution is, but it starts with a mindset shift. There were plenty of opportunities to...
Lately we have been confused by random movement, even though the overall trend for usd is down ... but seeing the fact that a lot of noise is generated up and down may be a sign that a reversal will come soon ... hopefully I will try to really enter the market in January New year, new hopes, while observing whether a reversal will occur ... if not ... entering the middle of the trend is also profitable ..
  • #10,930
  • Dec 30, 2020 4:49am Dec 30, 2020 4:49am
roller coaster.. but i believe, price going to upward.. when ?.. i dont know.. lol..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_680.png Size: 36 KB
  • #10,931
  • Dec 30, 2020 4:57am Dec 30, 2020 4:57am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, long trade update. GU cleared above 1.35/1.3525. Levels to watch. {image}
GBPUSD, long trade update.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 12 30 o.png Size: 32 KB
  • #10,932
  • Dec 30, 2020 5:08am Dec 30, 2020 5:08am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yeah that was a good idea, plus nicely done on GU and USDCHF. I going to spend a lot of time over these next few weeks building in some trend following strategies. You have to be extremely sharp to extract profits using mean revision techniques in these types of markets. It was pretty clear last night night USD was rolling over again. It would be nice to start capturing these moves rather persistently fading them. I am not fully sure what the solution is, but it starts with a mindset shift. There were plenty of opportunities to...
C, I have mentioned many times that trading method should be chosen based on the market condition. Trading based on confluence levels works well in range/irregular and slightly trending market conditions. In a market condition like this when we see shallow retracement or no retracement at all, a trend following strategy or a momentum-based strategy work best. The challenge is correctly identifying the market condition and choosing the appropriate trading method. If we decide to trade only one method, we need to recognize the condition that we should not use it. Maybe we can come up with some criteria for future reference.
  • #10,933
  • Dec 30, 2020 5:21am Dec 30, 2020 5:21am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} C, I have mentioned many times that trading method should be chosen based on the market condition. Trading based on confluence levels works well in range/irregular and slightly trending market conditions. In a market condition like this when we see shallow retracement or no retracement at all, a trend following strategy or a momentum-based strategy work best. The challenge is correctly identifying the market condition and choosing the appropriate trading method. If we decide to trade only one method, we need to recognize the condition that...
Oh yes of course. In the case of GBPUSD I was quite hard headed about 1.34 (50%) for the long. It's not a major problem but it means being sat on the side-lines as I prefer not to chase moves in motion, or buy anywhere near highs.

In terms of counter reversals. Looks like most of the USD crosses are at and approaching some decent levels here.
  • #10,934
  • Dec 30, 2020 5:24am Dec 30, 2020 5:24am
USDJPY short trade taken after it broke below the TL. Possible setup coming up @ 103. But be careful as UJ may break below 103.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 12 30.png Size: 36 KB
  • #10,935
  • Dec 30, 2020 5:43am Dec 30, 2020 5:43am
Quoting hasib
I have questions when you find a confluence and price touch the confluence level do you wait for candlesticks confirmations? How many touch the same confluence level you open trade? I will do backtest manually so that I can get proper confidence and a good setup. that is why I am asking these questions. You know most of the strategy failed in a slow market, How do you avoid a slow market that is another question Probably no one can't give the appropriate answer to these questions as far as I understand. But we all have a little technique to avoid...
It depends on many factors, if you have confidence in that level (this can be subjective, I also provided an arbitrary scoring technique for confluence levels) and the market condition is favorable (range/irregular or slightly trending), you can use a pending order or just trade off the level. Otherwise, you may wait for a confirmation candle (shooting star/doji, engulfing, etc.) on small TFs. As I mentioned above, we need to be extra careful when using these methods (counter trend method in particular) when we have a trending market without retracements.
  • #10,936
  • Dec 30, 2020 6:01am Dec 30, 2020 6:01am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Oh yes of course. In the case of GBPUSD I was quite hard headed about 1.34 (50%) for the long. It's not a major problem but it means being sat on the side-lines as I prefer not to chase moves in motion, or buy anywhere near highs. In terms of counter reversals. Looks like most of the USD crosses are at and approaching some decent levels here.
Some of them reached the levels. I am short EU and long UCHF. But EU may want 1.23 before any drop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 12 30.png Size: 27 KB
  • #10,937
  • Dec 30, 2020 6:13am Dec 30, 2020 6:13am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURGBP, short trade {image}
EURGBP short trade update.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH4 1230.png Size: 31 KB
  • #10,938
  • Dec 30, 2020 6:20am Dec 30, 2020 6:20am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF, short trade update. The trend is bearish below 0.89. Levels to watch. {image}
USDCHF, long trade. Levels to watch plus 0.88.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFDaily 12 30.png Size: 36 KB
  • #10,939
  • Dec 30, 2020 6:29am Dec 30, 2020 6:29am
EURJPY short trade. Possible levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily 12 30.png Size: 35 KB
  • #10,940
  • Dec 30, 2020 6:36am Dec 30, 2020 6:36am
Buy USD/CHF at 0,8844
10 traders viewing now