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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,901
  • Dec 29, 2020 9:09am Dec 29, 2020 9:09am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF, short trade update. Levels to watch. {image}
Great job, and there was a pullback to 8875 to add to it. Completely missed it.

I was definitely not missing EURUSD 1.2275.

Also grabbed a quick one on US30 on the open.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,902
  • Dec 29, 2020 9:15am Dec 29, 2020 9:15am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Great job, and there was a pullback to 8875 to add to it. Completely missed it. I was definitely not missing EURUSD 1.2275. Also grabbed a quick on on US30 on the open. {image} {image}
Great job on US300. I think you may be biased again. Did you take long GU @ 1.3450 yesterday? These setups present themselves everywhere. When you have a bias (short/long USD) and you are fully loaded, take a few trade setups on the opposite direction.
  • #10,903
  • Dec 29, 2020 9:18am Dec 29, 2020 9:18am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Great job on US300. I think you may be biased again. Did you take long GU @ 1.3450 yesterday? These setups present themselves everywhere. When you have a bias (short/long USD) and you are fully loaded, take a few trade setups on the opposite direction.
Unfortunately I didn't take it. I had 1.34 @ 50% pencilled in for a long.

But yes, being biased is a problem I need to work on. I should have took long EURUSD off 1.22 yesterday as well.

Fading moves (counter trending) is quite a habit that's hard to resist. And it's not an easy task to go against the bias.
  • #10,904
  • Dec 29, 2020 9:22am Dec 29, 2020 9:22am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade 1.2275, never gets old. P.S. this doesn't mean a trend change. EU is in a very strong uptrend in all TFs. Let's see how it develops. {image}
EURUSD, short trade update. We got a decent drop for a counter trend setup. Let's see how it develops. We need a D1 close below 1.2150 for a trend change. So this can easily continue higher again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,905
  • Dec 29, 2020 9:28am Dec 29, 2020 9:28am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade update. We got a decent drop for a counter trend setup. Let's see how it develops. We need a D1 close below 1.2150 for a trend change. So this can easily continue higher again. {image}
Looks like good PA rejection here. At some point this MN supply will kick in (either here or 1.23) and we'll get a solid run back to 1.20.

USDCAD long looks good too.
  • #10,906
  • Dec 29, 2020 9:33am Dec 29, 2020 9:33am
NC on interesting resistance area...
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  • #10,907
  • Dec 29, 2020 9:35am Dec 29, 2020 9:35am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Looks like good PA rejection here. At some point this MN supply will kick in (either here or 1.23) and we'll get a solid run back to 1.20. USDCAD long looks good too.
I'm skeptical about this rejection. UCAD long may look OK for now, but that trend has changed to the downside as well (below 1.2825 is bearish)
  • #10,908
  • Dec 29, 2020 10:06am Dec 29, 2020 10:06am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm skeptical about this rejection. UCAD long may look OK for now, but that trend has changed to the downside as well (below 1.2825 is bearish)
Hmm yes. I would have liked to have seen any sell off on EU get more support across the board. It looks ok. USDCAD needs another kick so can apply break even and relax. If it rolls over again, then perhaps need to pull the plug and wait for more info.

GU 1.35250 could offer another reload, or at least a scalp.
  • #10,909
  • Dec 29, 2020 10:15am Dec 29, 2020 10:15am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Hmm yes. I would have liked to have seen any sell off on EU get more support across the board. It looks ok. USDCAD needs another kick so can apply break even and relax. If it rolls over again, then perhaps need to pull the plug and wait for more info. GU 1.35250 could offer another reload, or at least a scalp.
I'm long GU now. I fee the USD will remain under pressure. I may switch to short at a better price higher, but it depends on the PA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,910
  • Dec 29, 2020 10:22am Dec 29, 2020 10:22am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm long GU now.
I can see the reason for long off H4 (and today's entry off 1.3475 I missed it), but there's still a bit of overhead to crunch through.

It's a bit of a mixed picture here. I was thinking this zone would get it back to 1.34.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,911
  • Dec 29, 2020 10:36am Dec 29, 2020 10:36am
Quoting shahab8b
EURGBP {image}
EURGBP, short trade
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  • #10,912
  • Dec 29, 2020 11:42am Dec 29, 2020 11:42am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm long GU now. I fee the USD will remain under pressure. I may switch to short at a better price higher, but it depends on the PA. {image}
Out of GU long. GU seems trapped between 1.3475 and 1.3525. Let's see how this develops.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,913
  • Dec 29, 2020 11:55am Dec 29, 2020 11:55am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, possible setups. {image}
USDCAD, long trade. There are some overhead R @ 1.2825 and 1.2850.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,914
  • Dec 29, 2020 12:02pm Dec 29, 2020 12:02pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade 1.2275, never gets old. P.S. this doesn't mean a trend change. EU is in a very strong uptrend in all TFs. Let's see how it develops. {image}
EURUSD, short trade update. This was a textbook counter trend setup. I like this H4 candle. But there are lots of S below @ 1.22 and 1.2150.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,915
  • Dec 29, 2020 12:19pm Dec 29, 2020 12:19pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade update. This was a textbook counter trend setup. I like this H4 candle. But there are lots of S below @ 1.22 and 1.2150. {image}
Looks good, I will take out 50% at 50 pips and see if this can run some.

I managed to add another scalp on the pullback. I like these zero DD entries when you catch them.

These 0.25 and 0.75RN are working very nicely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,916
  • Dec 29, 2020 12:32pm Dec 29, 2020 12:32pm
On topic of 0.25RN, AUDUSD 0.7625 counter setup?

No idea how I missed that long yesterday. Textbook 61.8 and demand zone..
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  • #10,917
  • Dec 29, 2020 12:41pm Dec 29, 2020 12:41pm
i'm not in trade already sir. S and C.
i see something interesting with DXI, when quarter RN playing the role..
could be a sign of reversal ?
90.000 still holding price down.. if break up, we have something last but not least we see stop hunt/beartrap done at the moment.
regard.
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  • #10,918
  • Dec 29, 2020 12:48pm Dec 29, 2020 12:48pm
Quoting meugampong
i'm not in trade already sir. S and C. i see something interesting with DXI, when quarter RN playing the role.. could be a sign of reversal ? 90.000 still holding price down.. if break up, we have something last but not least we see stop hunt/beartrap done at the moment. regard. {image}
Yes, absolutely right M. DX respecting RN, 0.5, 0.25 and 0.75.
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  • #10,919
  • Dec 29, 2020 1:02pm Dec 29, 2020 1:02pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes, absolutely right M. DX respecting RN, 0.5, 0.25 and 0.75. {image}
usdcad look great.. my experimental Shunt indicator showing a good position to go long..
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  • #10,920
  • Edited 2:33pm Dec 29, 2020 2:21pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Out of GU long. GU seems trapped between 1.3475 and 1.3525. Let's see how this develops. {image}
GBPUSD, long trade, I was playing the range without any directional bias. Let's see if GU can clear overhead R @ 1.35/1.3525, otherwise, it may roll over again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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