Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas | Page 544 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

COT report... futures or futures and options report? 11 replies

EA, GA, GCAD, GJ, GN - Analysis and trade ideas 11 replies

Cot - Report in application to the Forex 2 replies

Fundamental Analysis - Trade Ideas 2 replies

COT report 1 reply

Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
Exit Attachments

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,861
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:09am Dec 28, 2020 10:09am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Did you take UCAD long @ 1.2825/1.28? It's looking good. {image}
I sure did. I actually reloaded almost everything I bailed on just before Christmas and now looks a lot better.

AUDUSD - 0.76?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU.png Size: 38 KB
  • #10,862
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:14am Dec 28, 2020 10:14am
GU, let's keep an open mind to avoid getting caught on the wrong side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU abc 12 28.PNG Size: 70 KB
  • #10,863
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:16am Dec 28, 2020 10:16am
EG 0.91, EJ 127, UJ 104
  • #10,864
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:18am Dec 28, 2020 10:18am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, let's keep an open mind to avoid getting caught on the wrong side. {image}
Agree. This is why I am keen to take profits at every 50/75/100 pips and just be ready for for those levels.

Also USDCAD - Longs look promising, but we can't fully rule out a final sweep of 1.28.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC.PNG Size: 47 KB
  • #10,865
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:23am Dec 28, 2020 10:23am
Quoting C-12
{quote} I sure did. I actually reloaded almost everything I bailed on just before Christmas and now looks a lot better. AUDUSD - 0.76? {image}

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Merry Christmas C Yes, that trade was a no brainer, confluence of RN, previous high/supply zone, and AB=CD. Yesterday, I felt this move was not completed. Now there is a good chance we have a short term top in place. I also shorted EU again, sl @ b/e now. I'm not sure about that triangle (on H1/H4) though. It can break out in any direction. UCHF seems to be forming a saucer pattern on H4. AU might be forming a double top. I will be keeping an eye on 0.76/0.7625. {image} {image}
AUDUSD 0.76 short trade. Possible levels
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4 12 28 iu.png Size: 29 KB
  • #10,866
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:30am Dec 28, 2020 10:30am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} {quote} AUDUSD 0.76 short trade. Possible levels {image}
Perfect, looks like we're back to being fully loaded after a short break. I was not expecting it to be this smooth.

Also had a nibble on UJ 103.50 and now approaching 104 to offload some.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.png Size: 42 KB
  • #10,867
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:36am Dec 28, 2020 10:36am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, let's keep an open mind to avoid getting caught on the wrong side. {image}
I'll wait for a re-test of 1.34286 to make a decision.....but your 1.34 is also a valid TP IMO.
Lost....
  • #10,868
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:37am Dec 28, 2020 10:37am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Perfect, looks like we're back to being fully loaded after a short break. I was not expecting it to be this smooth. Also had a nibble on UJ 103.50 and now approaching 104 to offload some. {image}
Keep an eye on SPX. I won't be surprised if starts dropping. For now it's bullish, but if breaks below 3725 it can change.
  • #10,869
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:53am Dec 28, 2020 10:53am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Perfect, looks like we're back to being fully loaded after a short break. I was not expecting it to be this smooth. Also had a nibble on UJ 103.50 and now approaching 104 to offload some. {image}
Good job on UJ long 103.50. I don't mind going long on a retest of 103.75. It formed a little triangle and broke to the upside. UJ 104 may provide short setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 12 28.png Size: 44 KB
  • #10,870
  • Dec 28, 2020 1:27pm Dec 28, 2020 1:27pm
Quoting shahab8b
EG 0.91, EJ 127, UJ 104
EURJPY short trade, never gets old.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH1 12 28.png Size: 34 KB
  • #10,871
  • Dec 28, 2020 1:34pm Dec 28, 2020 1:34pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURJPY short trade, never gets old. {image}
Nicely done. I am just looking at EURUSD and this pair has clearly become stale over the last month.

I would like to see 1.21 and 1.20 in fairly swift order.

If this makes another run for the highs (1.2275 or 1.23) I will reload it again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 50 KB
  • #10,872
  • Dec 28, 2020 1:45pm Dec 28, 2020 1:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} hasib, I saw you were interested in EW and harmonic patterns, that's why I pointed you in that direction. EW and harmonic patterns are very useful but they are difficult to master. In my experience, trading based on confluence levels (RN/S/R or S/D, Fibs, etc.) is not only easy to learn, but also very rewarding.
I have done a few workshops about EW I have read a few materials. EW is very subjective. I Can't be successful in EW. I drop it from my trading Method.
I know few traders are using Supply and demand successfully it is less subjective.
From time to time I use them but I am not an expert. I feel a little uncomfortable because I use to trade with the trend (MA).
Recently I took a few good trades with supply and demand but most of the time I took profit early. I think with more practice I will understand and become more proficient with Supply and demand.

The harmonic pattern is difficult to master and there are other ways to get a Harmonic pattern win rate in trading, I believe.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,873
  • Edited 2:11pm Dec 28, 2020 1:59pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting hasib
{quote}I feel a little uncomfortable because I use to trade with the trend (MA). Recently I took a few good trades with supply and demand but most of the time I took profit early. I think with more practice I will understand and become more proficient with Supply and demand.
You should try remove all indicators for 3 months and focus fully on the SR/SD zones, PA and RN. I would recommend to do it all from a blank chart with hand drawn zones and fibs.

It will be hard at first but it will force you to focus in on the key components of a setup.

Eventually you can throw some indicators back in, but you want those foundations dialled in.
  • #10,874
  • Dec 28, 2020 2:01pm Dec 28, 2020 2:01pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Perfect, looks like we're back to being fully loaded after a short break. I was not expecting it to be this smooth. Also had a nibble on UJ 103.50 and now approaching 104 to offload some. {image}
are you use pending orders for entry. what was your initial SL.
Excellent trade. Love see this kind of trade in my account.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,875
  • Edited 2:15pm Dec 28, 2020 2:04pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting hasib
{quote} I have done a few workshops about EW I have read a few materials. EW is very subjective. I Can't be successful in EW. I drop it from my trading Method. I know few traders are using Supply and demand successfully it is less subjective. From time to time I use them but I am not an expert. I feel a little uncomfortable because I use to trade with the trend (MA). Recently I took a few good trades with supply and demand but most of the time I took profit early. I think with more practice I will understand and become more proficient with Supply...
You have valid points.

The confluence method we practice here is based on finding the significant levels. We look at 1) 0.25/0.5/0.75 round numbers 2) Supply/Demand or Support/Resistance levels, 3) Fibonacci levels, and if you like you can add 4) weekly/monthly pivot levels. You can go with the trend (trading the retracements) or counter trend. Keep SL small between 20-25 or 30 pips for more volatile pairs, and TP always 2X SL or more. Move SL to B/E after 20-30 pips, and do partial TP after 50 pips, and let the rest run with SL @ B/E. After you do this 20-30 times, it will become automatic.

There are two mindset components: 1) being patient: wait for your setup, don't chase the price, and wait patiently for your min tp (+50 pips), 2) discipline: always use a SL and when a level is blown do not stay in the trade, and never add to a losing trade thinking you are getting a better price.
  • #10,876
  • Dec 28, 2020 2:05pm Dec 28, 2020 2:05pm
Quoting hasib
{quote} are you use pending orders for entry. what was your initial SL. Excellent trade. Love see this kind of trade in my account.
This was a PA rejection candle entry with around 10 pip SL, I have taken one (partial) out here and aiming to run the second.

You can use pending when you've got a lot of solid confluence on the level, plus first touch RN.
Attached Image
  • #10,877
  • Dec 28, 2020 2:21pm Dec 28, 2020 2:21pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} You have valid points. The confluence method we practice here is based on finding the significant levels. We look at 1) 0.25/0.5/0.75 round numbers 2) Supply/Demand or Support/Resistance levels, 3) Fibonacci levels, and if you like you can add 4) weekly/monthly pivot levels. You can go with the trend (trading the retracements) or counter trend. Keep SL small between 20-25 or 30 pips for more volatile pairs, and TP always 2X SL or more. Move SL to B/E after 20-30 pips, and do partial TP after 50 pips, and let the rest run with SL @ B/E. After...
Agree 100% with everything.

This discipline one is still a tricky one for me. I often get the impulse to jump into a level early, as we do see price sometimes turn a few pips ahead.

Very occasionally I will average in at a higher / lower price but it's done with pre-planning and sizing has been adjusted to accommodate.

But as S says, indiscriminately averaging down on a blown level s a recipe for account damage. We're all guilty of it, but once you've been stung a few times you will think twice about doing it.
  • #10,878
  • Dec 28, 2020 2:41pm Dec 28, 2020 2:41pm
GC interesting..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.png Size: 55 KB
  • #10,879
  • Dec 28, 2020 2:41pm Dec 28, 2020 2:41pm
In the weekly chart, I see a very nice confluence sell setup.
I should have sell here.

From now on I will look for these setups.

Thanks for teaching me an excellent way of trading.
what is the trade win rate I should expect?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.png Size: 54 KB
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,880
  • Dec 28, 2020 2:47pm Dec 28, 2020 2:47pm
Quoting hasib
In the weekly chart, I see a very nice confluence sell setup. I should have sell here. From now on I will look for these setups. Thanks for teaching me an excellent way of trading. what is the trade win rate I should expect? {image}
That is exactly it. Nice simple coast to coast zones, RN's and some fib confluences.

Win rate all depends on your own discipline to execute your plan.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 35 KB
4 traders viewing now