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Price action at the core = family members' discussion project

  • #541
  • Dec 27, 2020 8:24pm Dec 27, 2020 8:24pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Why this? Double top with fast move down that breaks the start of the initial up move potentially changing trend. Trader should look to sell once 50% of IC candle broken and obvious reversal candle pattern . In this case candle 5 from right, an engulf. Psychology involved would lure traders in to buy!
For this I do look at Risk and Reward, based on the 25EMA
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This is how I handled this often repeated pattern of TMA, where the first break might not be the good spot to take a trade.
  • #542
  • Dec 27, 2020 8:47pm Dec 27, 2020 8:47pm
Quoting failinforex
Well, I stick to what works for me without bothering about order block, gap, displacement, etc {image}{image}And pick up some crumbs that fall from the BIG BOY {image}
I have used similar settings in the past - 2 TMAs and BB. It looked good on hindsight when testing past data but I wasn't happy with it when it comes to live trading. Perhaps my filters were not sufficient. Also having indicators on the bars/candles kind of distracts me and that is one thing I never bothered myself with when George spoke about the TMAs. Of course traders are different - one's medicine is another's poison.
  • #543
  • Dec 27, 2020 9:00pm Dec 27, 2020 9:00pm
Quoting Pumi
{quote} I have used similar settings in the past - 2 TMAs and BB. It looked good on hindsight when testing past data but I wasn't happy with it when it comes to live trading. Perhaps my filters were not sufficient. Also having indicators on the bars/candles kind of distracts me and that is one thing I never bothered myself with when George spoke about the TMAs. Of course traders are different - one's medicine is another's poison.
No I don't do back testing. You cannot do back testing for TMA nor scroll the chart backward to do any meaningful interpretation.
I use a recording software to do live recording.
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and my idea of TMA is more from thinking through the contribution from these 2 guys - robots4me and Nih98.
Sadly Nih98 had left us.
  • #544
  • Dec 27, 2020 9:32pm Dec 27, 2020 9:32pm
The live chart
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now when I scrolled back
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They will be different.
  • #545
  • Dec 27, 2020 10:12pm Dec 27, 2020 10:12pm
Hi Fallinforex

That first high which you marked as a X was a great set up to go short for a few pips. The reason was 3 candles before that high, volume tripled for only 1 candle before collapsing back to average volume. Without increasing volume, price will also start to collapse.
Then near the next high which you liked, volume tripled and the selling delta increased markedly, my charts had zero buying delta at the high.
Then the sellers delta blew out 8 times from recent levels as price turned very bearish.

On the next second low at 1.218, that candle was met with volume 9 times recent average, all buying delta.

While you may choose TMA’s and MA’s, knowledge of more accurate real volume and delta levels allows the trader to see the market with total clarity.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #546
  • Dec 27, 2020 11:38pm Dec 27, 2020 11:38pm
Quoting RickM
Hi Fallinforex That first high which you marked as a X was a great set up to go short for a few pips. The reason was 3 candles before that high, volume tripled for only 1 candle before collapsing back to average volume. Without increasing volume, price will also start to collapse. Then near the next high which you liked, volume tripled and the selling delta increased markedly, my charts had zero buying delta at the high. Then the sellers delta blew out 8 times from recent levels as price turned very bearish. On the next second low at 1.218, that...


Q RickM = What volume are you talking about? A genuine question. A serious concern.

A further point - An observation is literally (and financially) worth 1000x more than a leap of faith of the first top out. Not saying I don't trade them, as I am a rolling stone type of trader. (I am referring to any less experienced traders or aspiring traders.) So I would have traded the initial top, the inside low and the inside top, then the right hand upper legs on the way out. I say 'would have' but I don't usually trade the EURUSD less than a 4HR chart. I have traded many different markets and for all who are just entering this thread and conversation I would say this - A spike or shadow etc is NOT an extreme of price (on its own). It is a representation of lighter intentions. The spike tip "area" needs to be observed carefully. You cannot know what this means unless you have actually traded them and experienced it. If you do the math (I know most have not) there isn't enough actual money from small and medium participants in the markets to shake up the real path it takes. So you have to ask yourself - WHO has the big accounts? The ones who are operating bigger. This is why I suggested to people to test different vantage points to enter and exit. A spike for one person just stopped them out, but another 'person' is entering. One such real life way to determine this properly, is to reverse the chart. NOT invert it but reverse it. Why? Your eyes and mind play tricks on your reasoning and assessment. By going in reverse you have to "anticipate" the event AFTER the move traded. Try it for a while, believe me it works in interesting ways for people. Also, a 1M chart (Or even a Totality Tick chart) cannot lie about the "process in play" when related to volume in FX. The Futures CAN offer insight into volume. But I prefer to use TT Chart as I can control the readout and I'm not relying on an external resource I have no control over.

After trading for a while, you "should" realize the signals that larger intentions are planning or playing out.

Someone asked me why I am so vague at times. I could say all kinds of things that "work" BUT, you won't know what to trust with your own trading until you do it yourself and see what happens. The other thing I want to say about volume - It is representative only of what the person CHOOSES to accept. It makes no difference if your volume indications tell you one thing but the broker you trade through cannot cater to your gross financial needs. This a touchy subject and I won't go much further here than to add this - It's up to you as the trader to STOP listening to anyone and apply basic common sense in understanding HOW a broker can apply such high leverage to its business model. Hint - Long Term real life traders know that high leverage is contrary in its motivation to what they are trying to do.

In case people haven't noticed, the world HAS changed a lot since this virus stuff started. It has affected the financial centers and many others. You are better off accessing volume indications to make an 'anticipated volume areas of behavior' journal. Doing this you will learn to outgrow assumed outside sources and understand WHY the volume masses around spotted areas on the chart. This is a life skill you will never lose (until dementia or death anyway hihihihihi !!).

That's just me speaking about these things. It's not 'gospel' but it is based on real life beyond the digitized screen.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #547
  • Dec 27, 2020 11:54pm Dec 27, 2020 11:54pm
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Structure. Direction of interest. Situation? Proposed Approach.
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Probability of Approach. Structure check. Probability Check. Now use lower TF's or TTChart etc to apply market activity signals to trade style used.
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #548
  • Dec 28, 2020 1:05am Dec 28, 2020 1:05am
Quoting RickM
Hi Fallinforex That first high which you marked as a X was a great set up to go short for a few pips. The reason was 3 candles before that high, volume tripled for only 1 candle before collapsing back to average volume. Without increasing volume, price will also start to collapse. Then near the next high which you liked, volume tripled and the selling delta increased markedly, my charts had zero buying delta at the high. Then the sellers delta blew out 8 times from recent levels as price turned very bearish. On the next second low at 1.218, that...
Yes, indeed a quick 5pips on the first touch.

I did post a chart on extension exhaustion last week but decided to delete the post, same concept, same execution as you would.
  • #549
  • Dec 28, 2020 1:13am Dec 28, 2020 1:13am
Maybe this link will shed some light as to how the market move, far more convincing than what George presented.
Video about the high frequency trader

well, if you understand German that will be great.
  • #550
  • Dec 28, 2020 1:36am Dec 28, 2020 1:36am
Used to take H4 signal and wait for it to play out till target, 2/3 of the time you will find a u-turn.

Why scalp for 5 pips, 10 pips? Maybe if you read about Billy Bar. Or if you combined 3 FTMO accounts you will fully truly understand.

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Look at the scalpers.
  • #551
  • Dec 28, 2020 2:07am Dec 28, 2020 2:07am
Used to take H4 signal and wait for it to play out till target, 2/3 of the time you will find a u-turn.

Why scalp for 5 pips, 10 pips? Maybe if you read about Billy Bar. Or if you combined 3 FTMO accounts you will fully truly understand.

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Look at the scalpers.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I cannot speak for anyone else but me so here goes .....

Re: the first parts about trading and profits I am aware of and practice myself. So too re: the table re: its contents and knowledge. For Billy Bar, don't know who/what that is. Re: FTMO - I don't do it and would never do it. It's not trading for myself, it's a job. I suppose it depends on someone's goals of course. It is important to know your limits towards how long it's good to be in the market you trade.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #552
  • Dec 28, 2020 3:13am Dec 28, 2020 3:13am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} Q RickM = What volume are you talking about? A genuine question. A serious concern. A further point - An observation is literally (and financially) worth 1000x more than a leap of faith of the first top out. Not saying I don't trade them, as I am a rolling stone type of trader. (I am referring to any less experienced traders or aspiring traders.) So I would have traded the initial top, the inside low and the inside top, then the right hand upper legs on the way out. I say 'would have' but I don't usually trade the EURUSD less than a 4HR...
Hi Peter

Futures US data out of the Chicago Exchange.

If we can see what is really occurring without all the smoke and mirrors from FAKE volume on the MT4 platform, we can learn to understand a few real truths about the markets we trade

Rule 1 - There is NO deep liquidity on a chart - this is the biggest liar. All liquidity comes from market orders chasing price, there is F..K all there to begin with.
Rule 2 - Without increasing volume, we have no expansion. We should obviously fade low volume moves (fake breakouts) and trade with high volume moves as they appear on a chart.

Looking at this chart with Chicago Volume on top and Delta on the bottom,

1.. Box Purple. I took a trade after this white bar (next candle) WHEN volume collapsed for a few pips.
2.. Box Red. I took the trade on a 3 bar reversal and confirmed trade because all volume was coming from sellers. I then added a sell due to strong Red delta.
3.. Green Box. What can I say, strong volume and all we can see is Buyers Delta. That large white candle was over 9 times average candle for a M1 Candle.

VOLUME
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #553
  • Dec 28, 2020 4:53am Dec 28, 2020 4:53am
Quoting failinforex
And they repeat, repeat and repeat {image}Live, breathe, dream TMA and Bollinger Bands. As George said let your imagination shoot beyond the boundary. I will ask - do you know all about Bollinger? how many settings, how many strategies, how many funny, funny type of Bollinger Bands? ONE last important question - Do you know the function of that 25EMA on the M1 chart?
why 25ema on m1?
  • #554
  • Dec 28, 2020 5:06am Dec 28, 2020 5:06am
OK OK let's all just settle down here. Let's lay off the eggnog. Yes I concur .....

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I guess my ways are as a 'dabbler' not as a technician per say. I went through a period where I had NO extras, no outside help or tools. So I had to relearn and learn as a caveman would learn. And that lesson has insured me of a life beyond the "extras". Of course, as some already know, I use Futures data and a TT Chart instead of a Time chart. But for 'helping purposes' here it's good to show it a few different ways. It is good to have something a little more firm under you before you 'pull the trigger'. Since I don't trend trade I only focus on falsified and "less false" momentum of market activity.

Synergy and synchronicity play a VERY BIG role in seeing what repeats and what does not. And WHY.

As in the old ways - "Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, LOOK OUT !!" Hiihihi

What I would like to see with people is to learn as I "had to". To learn to "see" the volume in ways other than on the screen. To not get "married" to their fixed perceptions. It becomes unhealthy and a chain around your neck.

failinforex : If you use a MA then there will be a reason. And I trust it works for you.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #555
  • Dec 28, 2020 5:16am Dec 28, 2020 5:16am
Time based charts "SHOULD" only be used for YOU to manage your ...... ?????

TIME. Hihihiii

Everything else is about your relationship with YOUR money and THAT ----> thing out there called the market.

Please ALWAYS remember that.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #556
  • Dec 28, 2020 9:10am Dec 28, 2020 9:10am
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #557
  • Dec 28, 2020 9:26am Dec 28, 2020 9:26am
As I sit here and look around this site, (you) people "out there" are not completely "without help" from people who have thought about things. I know I sound like I know a lot, but I know I don't know everything. I just know how to do it for a long time and still be alive to talk about it. If and this is a BIG IF, if you are cluey enough and your thirst to learn PROPERLY, is big enough..... then you WILL put the picture together for YOU.

Just stop arguing and debating. DO the work and always keep notes of some kind of what you do and think. That stuff is priceless. And will serve you VERY well in 2021. And I'm sure you have found me saying things that other people have said here on this site. I promise that I have not "taken" their ideas or notes as my own. Everything I have said or explained comes from me. What should be noted is the specific individuals who HAVE said the same types of things ARE aware of the truthful elements involved with trading. So that's a clue for you as you search. And try your best to not use a phone to do all this. It's just a "mini" computer in your hand, not a real tool. At least get a tablet with a mouse.

OK just some notes as we go into the next year.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #558
  • Dec 28, 2020 11:11am Dec 28, 2020 11:11am
Quoting PeterCaleb
As I sit here and look around this site, (you) people "out there" are not completely "without help" from people who have thought about things. I know I sound like I know a lot, but I know I don't know everything. I just know how to do it for a long time and still be alive to talk about it. If and this is a BIG IF, if you are cluey enough and your thirst to learn PROPERLY, is big enough..... then you WILL put the picture together for YOU. Just stop arguing and debating. DO the work and always keep notes of some kind of what you do and think. That...
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  • #559
  • Dec 28, 2020 4:27pm Dec 28, 2020 4:27pm
Quoting PeterCaleb
Time based charts "SHOULD" only be used for YOU to manage your ...... ????? TIME. Hihihiii Everything else is about your relationship with YOUR money and THAT ----> thing out there called the market. Please ALWAYS remember that. Peter
Peter, I can never work out whether your posts are Gold or Garbage, you probably think the same about my posts.

But one thing we both agree about is Time based charts don't offer the trader the key to unlocking the secrets of trading the market. My chart is permanently locked on the one minute time frame only because this chart gives me a good viewpoint of all buyers and sellers orders coming in real time. To know a huge selling order has been placed on the market in the last minute is more important to me than knowing what yesterdays low was.
I traded GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURUSD and Gold last night with good success but I would have no idea whether they are in a bullish or bearish trend.

To be honest, I don't even know what the price is either. All I want to know is whether the buyers or sellers are exhausting current liquidity so I can fade the market with a high probability of success.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #560
  • Dec 28, 2020 5:41pm Dec 28, 2020 5:41pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Peter, I can never work out whether your posts are Gold or Garbage, you probably think the same about my posts. But one thing we both agree about is Time based charts don't offer the trader the key to unlocking the secrets of trading the market. My chart is permanently locked on the one minute time frame only because this chart gives me a good viewpoint of all buyers and sellers orders coming in real time. To know a huge selling order has been placed on the market in the last minute is more important to me than knowing what yesterdays low...
I would simplify it even further Rick.
Clever Dicky (market maker) builds algorithm, prints a line creating peaks and troughs.
Traders bet money at ‘key areas’ based on visual psychological clues set by Algorithm and distracting features designed by clever dicky.
Algorithm revisits key areas, clever dicky collects money and resets visual clues.
5% of traders.. or less..collect money from clever dicky who accepts that as a cost of running a business..
The End...
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