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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,821
  • Edited 1:39pm Dec 23, 2020 1:25pm | Edited 1:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} You did well holing onto EU shorts. I closed all my USD long trades as soon as I saw GU flying. I'm gonna keep this EU short (sl @ b/e, there is nothing to lose), let's see how it plays out.
I held those upper shorts through gritted teeth. I did the same on GBPUSD 1.35 other day and got taken out for BE..

For me, banking those quick easy 50/75 pips and look for fresh action the following day just feels a lot more productive. Plus being bi-directional without too much of bias. Something to work on before 2021.

This seems to be more of a personality thing rather than a right or wrong approach.

In hindsight this level on GU was the kill zone.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,822
  • Dec 23, 2020 1:52pm Dec 23, 2020 1:52pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I held those upper shorts through gritted teeth. I did the same on GBPUSD 1.35 other day and got taken out for BE.. For me, banking those quick easy 50/75 pips and look for fresh action the following day just feels a lot more productive. Plus being bi-directional without too much of bias. Something to work on before 2021. This seems to be more of a personality thing rather than a right or wrong approach. In hindsight this level on GU was the kill zone. {image} {image}
Didn't you take partial profit on GU 1.35? It was clear it was gonna bounce off 1.33/13350 confluence zone. But I don't think anyone could have predicted this GU move today.

I agree. There is no right or wrong approach regarding that. Taking partial profit will always help. Having a bias is a double-edged sword. But I have not been able (or maybe unwilling) to turn it completely off.
  • #10,823
  • Dec 23, 2020 2:02pm Dec 23, 2020 2:02pm
Quoting shahab8b
SPX M1 OK, I'm not gonna trade this. It's time to stop, haha. {image}
SPX, the trade that I didn't take.
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  • #10,824
  • Edited 3:06pm Dec 23, 2020 2:15pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Didn't you take partial profit on GU 1.35? It was clear it was gonna bounce off 1.33/13350 confluence zone. But I don't think anyone could have predicted this GU move today. I agree. There is no right or wrong approach regarding that. Taking partial profit will always help. Having a bias is a double-edged sword. But I have not been able (or maybe unwilling) to turn it completely off.
Yeah I got the sell off 1.35 and the buy at 1.33, but didn't not take advantage of either. A fully mechanical approach to exits would be ideal, but it's quite a tricky one to get the balance just right.

I know it probably seems at times I am having a moan. It's really just me talking out loud to myself about optimising trading. I've got a loads of ideas to work through these next few weeks to start 2021 with very solid plan.

I took that SPX trade on US30.
Attached Image
  • #10,825
  • Dec 23, 2020 2:29pm Dec 23, 2020 2:29pm
Once we get to Jan. around beginning 2021, EURUSD will shoot up much more. Another year people, until Spring/Summer 2021, and everything will start getting back to normal. Trade safe.
  • #10,826
  • Edited 9:14am Dec 24, 2020 8:53am | Edited 9:14am
gold buy trade.
I am not an expert. Correct me if I make any mistakes.
Thanks
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,827
  • Dec 24, 2020 10:11am Dec 24, 2020 10:11am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, I'm not sure if this move is done. It's not very clear atm. Possible levels. {image}
GBPUSD, short trade (AB=CD) plus confluence levels as always. Possible levels.
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  • #10,828
  • Dec 24, 2020 11:05am Dec 24, 2020 11:05am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, short trade (AB=CD) plus confluence levels as always. Possible levels. {image}
Merry Christmas S

That AB-CD extension really nailed it. RN short 1.36 looks good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,829
  • Edited 11:34am Dec 24, 2020 11:21am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Merry Christmas S That AB-CD extension really nailed it. RN short 1.36 looks good. {image}
Merry Christmas C

Yes, that trade was a no brainer, confluence of RN, previous high/supply zone, and AB=CD. Yesterday, I felt this move was not completed. Now there is a good chance we have a short term top in place. I also shorted EU again, sl @ b/e now. I'm not sure about that triangle (on H1/H4) though. It can break out in any direction. UCHF seems to be forming a saucer pattern on H4. AU might be forming a double top. I will be keeping an eye on 0.76/0.7625.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,830
  • Dec 24, 2020 11:36am Dec 24, 2020 11:36am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Merry Christmas C Yes, that trade was a no brainer, confluence of RN, previous high/supply zone, and AB=CD. Yesterday, I felt this move was not completed. Now there is a good chance we have a short term top in place. I also shorted EU again, sl @ b/e now. I'm not sure about that triangle (on H1/H4) though. It can break out in any direction. UCHF seems to be forming a saucer pattern on H4.
Yes it became clear late last night the cable short at 1.3550 was bit too early so I killed those positions for a few pips.

USDCHF looks like a short term low is in place. Next setup of interest is long on USDCAD 1.28 / 61.8, perhaps a touch lower.

I did have a couple of attempts at AU 0.76 and NU 0.71 but threw in the towel on those grinders.
  • #10,831
  • Dec 24, 2020 9:25pm Dec 24, 2020 9:25pm
USDCHF, USDCAD bearish on weekly and monthly charts, and EURUSD bullish on a weekly and monthly charts.

Merry Christmas.
  • #10,832
  • Dec 25, 2020 2:21am Dec 25, 2020 2:21am
Merry Christmas
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,833
  • Dec 25, 2020 2:43am Dec 25, 2020 2:43am
Hi shahab8b

i have started reading this thread, I see you trade ABCD pattern, you trade fib. I have basic understanding of patterns and wave analysis. Do you recommend any material so that I go through those. 2021 I will more focus on price based trading than indicator based trading. Thanks
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,834
  • Dec 25, 2020 9:23am Dec 25, 2020 9:23am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, it looks like an impulsive move. It can be wave C as a corrective wave structure, but there is a chance it's wave 3. {image}
Respect! what a trade. excellent. I want to learn from you. Count me as your student.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,835
  • Edited 5:12am Dec 28, 2020 4:45am | Edited 5:12am
Festive quiz time. Who took this sell trade on EURUSD and why?

Shahab8b and M not allowed to answer.

Followers of this thread should get this one easy.
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  • #10,836
  • Dec 28, 2020 4:49am Dec 28, 2020 4:49am
Round 2

GBPUSD - Who took sell today and why?
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  • #10,837
  • Dec 28, 2020 5:21am Dec 28, 2020 5:21am
Quoting C-12
Festive quiz time. Who took this sell trade on EURUSD and why? Shahab8b and M not allowed to answer. Followers of this thread should get this one easy. {image}
I trade the other side of the market and after that, I trade your side of the market.
You are a perfect reversal trader. I personally struggle with reversal trade a lot. I am TC trade most of the time.
I should learn from other people's answers.
On the chart I see Resistance level and H1 supply level. I don't know how traders draw their supply level, My supply level could be a little different from theirs. if they post their screenshot I could learn from them.

Mr.C if you found any mistake in my understanding, you can do criticism. I am willing to learn.
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,838
  • Dec 28, 2020 5:37am Dec 28, 2020 5:37am
Quoting C-12
Festive quiz time. Who took this sell trade on EURUSD and why? Shahab8b and M not allowed to answer. Followers of this thread should get this one easy. {image}
Probably make a lot of mistakes. Here is my over all view.
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,839
  • Dec 28, 2020 5:44am Dec 28, 2020 5:44am
Quoting hasib
{quote} Probably make a lot of mistakes. Here is my over all view. {image}
You got some of it. Let's see if we get any other takers.
  • #10,840
  • Dec 28, 2020 5:54am Dec 28, 2020 5:54am
Quoting hasib
Hi shahab8b i have started reading this thread, I see you trade ABCD pattern, you trade fib. I have basic understanding of patterns and wave analysis. Do you recommend any material so that I go through those. 2021 I will more focus on price based trading than indicator based trading. Thanks
Thank you hasib. I replied your pm.
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