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Rearden's Journal

  • #301
  • Edited 3:20pm Dec 23, 2020 2:39pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Yes G. This makes sense in this scenario. The very reason you put in a lower second entry is the very reason you'd want to take that profit up top." I think I should note this and start acting(exit without hesitation) on it. Yes, I am now noticing these recurring price behaviors. As you said I have to repeat it again and again so that I get more practice and react accordingly based on those experiences. Yes I am still holding the trade to see how it behaves. Thank you for the explanation on this scenario...... It helps to bring clarity to...
So, did you notice it went exactly where it could give you trouble. Noticing this when in a full account always helps you answer the question of "where should I close?"
Be bullish on you.
  • #302
  • Dec 23, 2020 4:21pm Dec 23, 2020 4:21pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} So, did you notice it went exactly where it could give you trouble. Noticing this when in a full account always helps you answer the question of "where should I close?"
Yes. I did. Yesterday when it reached the S50, I was thinking to myself on this. Thanks G.
  • #303
  • Dec 23, 2020 4:24pm Dec 23, 2020 4:24pm
24 Dec
BIAS: UP Move: UP

I am not entering any new position today as its nearing Christmas and it can be very slow market.I will wait to see if it goes up to hit my TP.If not I will watch it again next week.
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  • #304
  • Dec 23, 2020 10:37pm Dec 23, 2020 10:37pm
Quoting Rearden
24 Dec BIAS: UP Move: UP I am not entering any new position today as its nearing Christmas and it can be very slow market.I will wait to see if it goes up to hit my TP.If not I will watch it again next week. {image}
The price hit my TP and is holding above the S50. I will continue to watch the chart to see if it repeats the actions during end August and early September.
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  • #305
  • Dec 27, 2020 4:56pm Dec 27, 2020 4:56pm
28 Dec

UP BIAS,UP move
The market came down and closed below S50 last week. The price went above but closed below the S50 continuously for 3 days. As per the initial rules, When price is in UP move and UP bias, I have to enter. As per the observation, when price is in a range and below S50 and Pivot this didn't work out and there was huge draw down. So I saw G's comment on engaging after there is a daily close above S50. I will do the same as well.

I also observed that price is in the middle of the channel which increases risk. The angle of MA is to the downside and a quick look at the chart shows lower highs from 17 Dec high onwards
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  • #306
  • Dec 28, 2020 5:03pm Dec 28, 2020 5:03pm
29 Dec

Up bias UP move

The price has closed above the S50 (after 3 trading days)and its in up move in an up bias week. I entered straight away since the price is between S50 and pivot and placed a PO at the S50. I noticed that yesterday the price respected the mini gap and also the #3b trade went to the top of the channel and is coming down. On coming down it has failed from 2239.

Since the price closed above the S50, I placed the TP at the channel top instead of the immediate swing high from where it came down. And if price hold below the S50, i think it will be better to close and re enter at the bottom of the channel since price is at the top portion of the channel from 2128-2252.

On 22 Dec, price poked the top of the channel. So if price break that channel to the upside, the trade has the potential to go up. I will stick with the rule and take the profit there at the swing high and observe what happens in this scenario.
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  • #307
  • Dec 29, 2020 8:12am Dec 29, 2020 8:12am
The price has hit the target and made a new high. I have moved up my white line to 2151. Even though the price has made a new high, it has not yet broken the highs of 17 and 18 Dec.
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  • #308
  • Dec 29, 2020 4:32pm Dec 29, 2020 4:32pm
30 Dec

Price held above the 2252 line but quickly came back in . The price is still above the S50. I have placed a PO at pivot and S50 with TP at 2274. The price is still in a big range and I think that if it holds below the S50 it will be better to exit and enter at the bottom of the range if there is an opportunity or try a #3b if it happens.

Also, if it goes to my target area without me and come back, will it be better to exit and then look for a trade at the low of the range?

G had commented on analyzing risk and how to exit better with less risk than looking signs of breakout. If it breaks higher, its going to the early 2018 consolidation range. I will patiently wait and see what happens.
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  • #309
  • Dec 30, 2020 5:12pm Dec 30, 2020 5:12pm
31 Dec

Up Bias, Up move
The price didn't come to pivot or S50 and cleared the 17,18 Dec highs yesterday. The price has been continuously making Higher lows and higher highs. But its approaching the early 2018 highs in the weekly chart.

Thinking back on my analysis, I think, at times I expect the price to turn to the down sides since it has moved up for sometime. I don't take in the possibility of price continuing in the same direction. This may restrict me to take advantage of good moves which continues in the trending market. Checking the price with respect to S50 is good way to overcome this I feel.

I have placed 2 long positions as per the rules for today.
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  • #310
  • Jan 1, 2021 8:04pm Jan 1, 2021 8:04pm
Quoting Rearden
31 Dec Up Bias, Up move The price didn't come to pivot or S50 and cleared the 17,18 Dec highs yesterday. The price has been continuously making Higher lows and higher highs. But its approaching the early 2018 highs in the weekly chart. Thinking back on my analysis, I think, at times I expect the price to turn to the down sides since it has moved up for sometime. I don't take in the possibility of price continuing in the same direction. This may restrict me to take advantage of good moves which continues in the trending market. Checking the price...
I had noticed the price went up without me. When the price failed to go higher(at blue arrow) and started coming down, I thought of removing the PO but had second thoughts of following the rule and hang on.

When I saw that the price went up from the pivot area without me, I thought of cancelling the PO but it was New Year's Eve here already, so I had to rush out for some appointment and totally missed to do it. I didn't have access to chart for next few hours. Later when I came back to the chart, I saw that the price had held below the S50 and went up to gave me an exit (@pivot) and is coming down. I exited immediately and thought of entering at the bottom near to my white line instead of holding it (expecting to go up) like I did in the beginning of exercise. I was a bit late in my exit as I was not in front of the chart.

But even if I was in front of the chart, I think would have exited at the hold below S50 (Which is around the same vicinity as my exit now) instead of waiting for a retrace back to pivot which was better exit. I read G's post of price not retaking the pivot and exiting with a smaller loss or BE at the pivot.
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  • #311
  • Jan 1, 2021 10:33pm Jan 1, 2021 10:33pm
has the last 4 months saved you money, returned way more in education than you lost in the exercise, teaching you about the chart, and moving you toward profitability?

Since I have been doing the smallest amount possible per pip, I didn't make huge returns(financially) which is perfectly fine but the returns on education was many times more.

Yes. Doing the exercise for past 4 to 5 months has been a huge advantage in many aspects related to trading and more importantly seeing the charts. To be specific, It helped to see where the price would naturally go. Many comments that G said before the exercise, makes a lot of sense when I experience it personally.

Since there was a set of rules clearly defined, I was able to know when I violated it and When I followed. Using a consistent approach(without changing rules based on the recent trade) helps to gather data and then modify my approach accordingly. Doing the exercise over and over helped/helps to instill the key takeaways into my brain and identify it when I see that next time.

As the exercise moved forward, I had more sense on when NOT to take a trade(even if it fit the initial rules) and this has been a huge learning.

Going forward, I would like to keep on studying the chart and not rush to start making big returns. I will keep my analysis simple and burn these lessons to my brain again and again.
  • #312
  • Jan 2, 2021 3:02pm Jan 2, 2021 3:02pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} I had noticed the price went up without me. When the price failed to go higher(at blue arrow) and started coming down, I thought of removing the PO but had second thoughts of following the rule and hang on. When I saw that the price went up from the pivot area without me, I thought of cancelling the PO but it was New Year's Eve here already, so I had to rush out for some appointment and totally missed to do it. I didn't have access to chart for next few hours. Later when I came back to the chart, I saw that the price had held below the S50...
I think what you did right there was managed perfectly and showed keen awareness of what price was up to.
Be bullish on you.
  • #313
  • Jan 3, 2021 5:20pm Jan 3, 2021 5:20pm
04 Jan 2021

UP Bias, Down move.

I will wait patiently until price turns to up move or #3b. The price is near the previous swing highs in the HTFs and I am not sure if this is going to range, go up or go down from here. I will watch patiently and follow the rules.
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  • #314
  • Jan 4, 2021 7:30am Jan 4, 2021 7:30am
The price held above the S50. But the MA direction is not very convincing. Also, price is at the high of a big range and the risk is larger. I will wait for the price to turn to up move and then engage.
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  • #315
  • Jan 4, 2021 4:22pm Jan 4, 2021 4:22pm
05 Jan 21

Up Bias, Down move

Price gave an outside bar at the previous highs and came down and closed below S50. I will wait until price turns to an up move.

? The price is in a range now. So is it better to do the edge to middle trading? I will observe this .
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  • #316
  • Jan 5, 2021 4:52pm Jan 5, 2021 4:52pm
06 Jan 21
Up bias, down move

Price closed above the S50 and pivot but still in down move. I will patiently for the price to turn to up move and then start looking for trades.

I see that there is repeating pattern of price giving a Big bullish candle around open (most of the days) and then closing above pivot, retesting it and then a push up. it is continuing this week as well.

Also, the channels are becoming smaller.
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  • #317
  • Jan 6, 2021 4:52pm Jan 6, 2021 4:52pm
07 Jan

up bias up move

I misread the direction of the MA in last #3b set up and missed it. I also saw G taking a better entry trade from the bottom of the mini range. Also, I totally missed to take the #3b yesterday until I saw G take it in his journal. I got engrossed in the observing the range and when will it break to the upside to take a trade and missed to take the #3b even though I was looking for it from Monday. I gave up on it after the first one was missed. Yesterday the direction of MA was also aligned to place a pending order and I totally missed to do it. Reminder to myself: always keep analysis simple

Yesterday, Price broke out of the range came back inside and then held above the range it broke out from. I placed a #2 and #3.
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  • #318
  • Jan 7, 2021 6:03am Jan 7, 2021 6:03am
Quoting Rearden
07 Jan up bias up move I misread the direction of the MA in last #3b set up and missed it. I also saw G taking a better entry trade from the bottom of the mini range. Also, I totally missed to take the #3b yesterday until I saw G take it in his journal. I got engrossed in the observing the range and when will it break to the upside to take a trade and missed to take the #3b even though I was looking for it from Monday. I gave up on it after the first one was missed. Yesterday the direction of MA was also aligned to place a pending order and I totally...

the price didnt go up from the previous high around 1.2350 area. It made a LH and started coming down. When I saw price went up without taking me in and then making a LH and coming down, I should have cancelled the PO which I didn't. Both my POs were triggered and I exited when price held below the S50. This is similar to the trade at the start of the exercise when a breakout failed and price closed back within the range.

I will enter long again if price shows it wants to go up once it reach near my white line.
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  • #319
  • Jan 7, 2021 5:27pm Jan 7, 2021 5:27pm
08 Jan 2021

Up bias, Upmove

Today is Friday. The price closed below the Pivot first time for the week. Since the price is below the S50, I will wait for the price to go above the S50 or come down to my white line and show it wants to go up before I enter.

I am thinking if it would have been better for me to wait to see if price will come up to S50 before I closed...If I had waited for it to come back to S50 what if it head straight down to my white line. In the last scenario, exiting right after the hold below S50 was ok but it came back to pivot and S50 to provide a BE or small loss. I think the best option was to recognise the failure of price to push higher and not take the trade.
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  • #320
  • Jan 8, 2021 8:25pm Jan 8, 2021 8:25pm
Weekly Summary 04 Jan to 08 Jan

The market opened below the S50 and went above. It gave an opportunity for #3b but I didn't notice that the S50 was turning up. I saw G take it with an additional position from bottom of the swing and the reason for it. I will do this when the next opportunity presents itself.

There was another clear #3b which I placed after seeing G putting a PO. it didn't trigger. But since the PO was missed by few pips and it gave a bullish outside bar, I could have entered at the close of it. As of now, I will stick to the rules of the exercise and enter based on the entry rules of exercise.

The day it broke out, it closed above the range and also above pivot and S50 continuously for 3 days. It also had turned to an up move. So this is what convinced me to place a PO at #2 and #3. As it closed below S50, i closed those positions. The failure to break above was a good enough indication to cancel those POs.

Emotional:

Looking back at the trading of these huge ranges now, done during start of exercise and also charts from previous years, I observed that when there is a failure to go higher from previous highs, the market has a high probability that it will eventually move down to the low of the huge range.....I am not able to capitalize on that down move. The same happened this week as well. The market on Thursday and Friday went up to retest the low of day of breakout and moved down. It gives a feeling of missing out. I will take note of this and implement these observations as I move ahead in the exercise.
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