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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,801
  • Dec 23, 2020 9:47am Dec 23, 2020 9:47am
EURGBP
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  • #10,802
  • Dec 23, 2020 9:48am Dec 23, 2020 9:48am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That's why I said lets wrap it up. Every year around this time, you will see these nonsense moves. Sometimes is UJ or AU, this time is GU.
Oh yes definitely. This is where everyone needs extra tight money management. I trade a very modest size to the account (0.25%) so I can deal with these moves without taking damage.

Even as a veteran, the impulse to go counter these moves is hard to resist, especially if it arrives at pre-planned level.

I see many people out in the retail space (youtube, instragram, twitter etc) who are clearly fresh lambs to slaughter.
  • #10,803
  • Dec 23, 2020 9:50am Dec 23, 2020 9:50am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I switched side thinking to go short at a better price like 1.3450 or 1.35. Then this move came out of nowhere.
I took a hit on it, waited for the dust to settle and then reloaded 1.3550.

Also reloaded UCHF and EU.
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  • #10,804
  • Dec 23, 2020 10:16am Dec 23, 2020 10:16am
GU
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  • #10,805
  • Dec 23, 2020 10:23am Dec 23, 2020 10:23am
Quoting shahab8b
GU {image}
Daily zone as well.

It's a pretty chunky zone so can go deeper or it even take the tops. I really would like to see this go run for 1.31/1.30.
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  • #10,806
  • Dec 23, 2020 10:37am Dec 23, 2020 10:37am
Scalp levels...for short

Also if prices fail to break 1.3498, then we should more buys tomorrow.
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,807
  • Dec 23, 2020 10:44am Dec 23, 2020 10:44am
i think its going here . then long from 3325
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  • #10,808
  • Dec 23, 2020 11:37am Dec 23, 2020 11:37am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Daily zone as well. It's a pretty chunky zone so can go deeper or it even take the tops. I really would like to see this go run for 1.31/1.30. {image}
You have a better entry! I wasted my time preparing the chart. That's not fair, haha.

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, levels to keep an eye on {image}
GBPUSD, short trade.

Quoting shahab8b
GU {image}
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  • #10,809
  • Dec 23, 2020 11:50am Dec 23, 2020 11:50am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} You have a better entry! I wasted my time preparing the chart. That's not fair, haha. {quote} GBPUSD, short trade. {quote} {image}
Well you sure did me over with that long. Think I caught about 20 pips out of it and you took over 200!

This was a fun afternoon session in the end. After some sloppy and lazy work shorting GU early I really got my focus on.

Not sure exactly how I caught UJ and these EU adds in the moment, but I will take them. Also got some AU/NU in the heat of battle.
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  • #10,810
  • Dec 23, 2020 11:51am Dec 23, 2020 11:51am
GBPUSD, I'm not sure if this move is done. It's not very clear atm. Possible levels.
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  • #10,811
  • Dec 23, 2020 11:53am Dec 23, 2020 11:53am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, I'm not sure if this move is done. It's not very clear atm. Possible levels. {image}
There's certainly a lot of work to do to crunch through all those levels below. I like the D1 supply, it's possible it can get through.

Notice the D1 long tailed wicks below. Very often they get closed up similar to gaps, but it's not an exact science.

Also we know the UK is a bit of a basket case as well and I am clearly biased. Let's see how it develops.
  • #10,812
  • Dec 23, 2020 12:02pm Dec 23, 2020 12:02pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Well you sure did me over with that long. Think I caught about 20 pips out of it and you took over 200! This was a fun afternoon session in the end. After some sloppy and lazy work shorting GU early I really got my focus on. Not sure exactly how I caught UJ and these EU adds in the moment, but I will take them. Also got some AU/NU in the heat of battle. {image} {image}
Haha, true. I took EU short as well. We were supposed to wrap it up then we got caught in all these trades.
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  • #10,813
  • Dec 23, 2020 12:05pm Dec 23, 2020 12:05pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Haha, true. I took EU short as well. We were supposed to wrap it up then we got caught in all these trades. {image}
Tell me about it. I've done zero Christmas shopping.. Ahhh well

I think with these trades, we're watching multiple pairs and levels arriving at the same time. I had no doubt EURUSD was going to turn there, even though it wasn't a heavily confluenced area.

It was at the weekly open price though, and that's something I've been monitoring closely. It's a very similar price level to the weekly pivot, but I think it's even more precise. More testing needed.
  • #10,814
  • Dec 23, 2020 12:20pm Dec 23, 2020 12:20pm
SPX M1

OK, I'm not gonna trade this. It's time to stop, haha.
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  • #10,815
  • Dec 23, 2020 12:25pm Dec 23, 2020 12:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Or we can wait for the gap to be filled and short 13600-13700 {image}
DAX, follow-up
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  • #10,816
  • Dec 23, 2020 12:48pm Dec 23, 2020 12:48pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Haha, true. I took EU short as well. We were supposed to wrap it up then we got caught in all these trades. {image}
I silently observe all the good trade you took.
Excellent entry.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #10,817
  • Dec 23, 2020 12:57pm Dec 23, 2020 12:57pm
Quoting hasib
{quote} I silently observe all the good trade you took. Excellent entry.
Thank you hasib. You're welcome to participate.
  • #10,818
  • Dec 23, 2020 1:03pm Dec 23, 2020 1:03pm
EURUSD, H/H4 still in a triangle pattern, if D1 (today or tomorrow) can close below 1.2150 and break below that rising TL, we may see a deeper retracement to 1.2.
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  • #10,819
  • Dec 23, 2020 1:08pm Dec 23, 2020 1:08pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, H/H4 still in a triangle pattern, if D1 (today or tomorrow) can close below 1.2150 and break below that rising TL, we may see a deeper retracement to 1.2. {image}
We have certainly been made to work hard to get in and stay with this short position... I have barely banked anything on EURUSD so far this week. It feels like a lot of a work for very low end product.

I am going to trim back some pairs next year and open up some scalping on EU/GU.

There were many pips to be had on both pairs this week (long and shorts) and I have been a bit hard headed with single direction bias.
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  • #10,820
  • Dec 23, 2020 1:14pm Dec 23, 2020 1:14pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} We have certainly been made to work hard to get in and stay with this short position... I have barely banked anything on EURUSD so far this week. I am going to trim back some pairs next year and open up some scalping on EU/GU. There were many pips to be had on both pairs this week (long and shorts) and I have been a bit hard headed with single direction bias. {image}
You did well holing onto EU shorts. I closed all my USD long trades as soon as I saw GU flying. I'm gonna keep this EU short (sl @ b/e, there is nothing to lose), let's see how it plays out.
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