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Rearden's Journal

  • #281
  • Dec 10, 2020 4:54pm Dec 10, 2020 4:54pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Love this picture, great for this thought exercise... We could look at the red line, what was it doing preceding the trade last time, and preceding the trade this time? Was moving with the trade last time, against this time. Were there failures of similar attempts? Last time, no. This time, yes. Now, if we had never traded and were brand new to forex, we wouldn't know if these things mattered much or give us an edge. Time will tell us. But your ideas are great, I gave you mine to encourage you to start simple. The simpler I make trading...
Thanks G.

Yes. Completely agree when you say to keep the analysis simple. I have been trying to do that and getting better.

With regards to Part 2.

Recently, I have been looking at ways which I can reduce loss not only for #3b but all set ups. The above pointers will help me with that especially the " Can I use the same rules that got me in the trade to get me out of the trade if it fails?" I have been looking at instances where price HOLDS back below the S50(during long trade) and the chances for it to work in favour and against. I am still in progress with it but noticed that many times, the price offers an early exit especially when the range(distance to white line) is very large. I have not collected enough data on it. Thanks again for the other pointers too. I will use those to think better exits especially taking #1 instead of a trade from middle of the channel and also not taking the trade at all when there was a failed attempt previously.

This exercise is helpful. I helped to clarify few things. I never thought about the comparison of this #3b and the last week's one in this manner. I was thinking, it may be mainly due to location. Last week it had room to move up, and now since it has reached near the previous swing highs....it is doing a retracement etc. Thank you
  • #282
  • Dec 10, 2020 4:57pm Dec 10, 2020 4:57pm
11 Dec
Up bias, down move

The price is still in a down move. I never attempted to take the #3b because of the factors discussed in previous post. I will not taking any new trades today as it is in down move and is friday but I will watch what happens.
  • #283
  • Edited 8:07pm Dec 13, 2020 6:29pm | Edited 8:07pm
Weekly Summary 07 Dec to 11 Dec
=====================

Up bias week.

The week opened below S50. The price went to test the S50 and came down. As observed previously, when the price is below S50, its better to wait for better entries close to white line to reduce risk. Looking to the left, price had tested an area to the left and pushed higher. This offered a better opportunity to reduce risk further or exit at BE. this may Not happen every time. But it is good to observe and see how many times it provides opportunity for better exit.

I took a #3b trade and learned on the difference between the one that I took previous week. Since I had taken that, I should have taken the one at blue arrow which offered a 1:1 trade. G had talked about taking the trades consistently. This trade eventually came back down.

?is it because the price is in a range that it didn't behave like the #3b trade of the previous week? or is it because of the number of failed attempts.

I will keep these questions in mind and observe.
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  • #284
  • Dec 13, 2020 6:39pm Dec 13, 2020 6:39pm
UP bias, Down move.

Came to the chart a bit late due to some emergencies.

The price is still in a down move. But price is above S50. The price was ranging for the whole of last week and extended the range. I will take the #3b trade today with a better entry at the bottom of the range. I will try to optimise the #3b trade once I do few trades and collect some data based on my trades.
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  • #285
  • Edited 7:42pm Dec 14, 2020 4:30pm | Edited 7:42pm
15 Dec 2020
Up Bias, Down move

the price is Still in a down move. It came below S50 but went up immediately above it. But the price is still within the range. I will wait. I didnt enter any new position because the price is still in down move.
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  • #286
  • Dec 15, 2020 4:30pm Dec 15, 2020 4:30pm
16 dec
Up Bias, Down move

The price is still in down move. It came down and held below S50 but went up and closed above it. Price retested the area it went up from day before yesterday. Price has been consolidating at the upper end of the channel. I will see watch which side it breaks to
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  • #287
  • Dec 15, 2020 6:08pm Dec 15, 2020 6:08pm
Quoting Rearden
Weekly Summary 07 Dec to 11 Dec ===================== Up bias week. The week opened below S50. The price went to test the S50 and came down. As observed previously, when the price is below S50, its better to wait for better entries close to white line to reduce risk. Looking to the left, price had tested an area to the left and pushed higher. This offered a better opportunity to reduce risk further or exit at BE. this may Not happen every time. But it is good to observe and see how many times it provides opportunity for better exit. I took a #3b...
ok, but how are you feeling about the exercise? Anxious not trading? Frustrated you aren't more in the game? Have you been dealing with any of that? You are still writing more like you are trying to solve a detailed puzzle. I'd encourage you to think more about how you are handling things and keep the analysis simple, simple simple.
Be bullish on you.
  • #288
  • Dec 15, 2020 7:56pm Dec 15, 2020 7:56pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} ok, but how are you feeling about the exercise? Anxious not trading? Frustrated you aren't more in the game? Have you been dealing with any of that? You are still writing more like you are trying to solve a detailed puzzle. I'd encourage you to think more about how you are handling things and keep the analysis simple, simple simple.
Hi G,

TBH, I think that (trying to solve a detailed puzzle) was my attitude these few weeks. I don't feel anxious or frustrated that I am not in the trade. I used to feel frustrated last month and earlier when I was not in a move. But now, since I have done the exercise and went through range bound weeks and weeks where I did only 1 trade or weeks when all trades were losers, I don't feel anxious or frustrated due to miss trades or market not giving any opportunity. I feel I have got the hang of what to look for and the patience to wait for it to happen even though it takes longer than I anticipate without feeling impatient, sad, angry or disappointed. I am like....Okie the set up has not occurred yet. So I have to patiently wait. No other emotion.

But at the same time, I feel I am looking too close to see if I am missing to notice anything (not missing set ups but any repetitive clues that market give) in the market. I am thinking is it giving me any clues that I don't notice etc. and also looking for scenarios offering better entries. Now, because I don't look at any other pairs other than EURUSD, I feel if I am doing enough to make it work.
  • #289
  • Dec 15, 2020 8:39pm Dec 15, 2020 8:39pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, TBH, I think that (trying to solve a detailed puzzle) was my attitude these few weeks. I don't feel anxious or frustrated that I am not in the trade. I used to feel frustrated last month and earlier when I was not in a move. But now, since I have done the exercise and went through range bound weeks and weeks where I did only 1 trade or weeks when all trades were losers, I don't feel anxious or frustrated due to miss trades or market not giving any opportunity. I feel I have got the hang of what to look for and the patience to wait...
Less is more. Don't miss the easy things first. Start by just looking at the things you are choosing to put on the chart. You are marking swings. You have a simple50 and a pivot. Master that first. If you are going into much more detail... too complex. Be the master of simple things. And always start with evaluating yourself.
Be bullish on you.
  • #290
  • Dec 16, 2020 4:39pm Dec 16, 2020 4:39pm
17 Dec
UP Bias, UP move

The price has turned to an up move. Even though the price has broken and closed above the range, there was no bullish candle which has opened and closed in the direction of the break to confirm it. Price is in a 150 pip range. In big ranges, it is better to wait for the price to come to the lower area to reduce the risk and then take the trade.

Past few days, price has been consistently retracing to the S50 and pivot and then going up. So I have placed a #2 and #3 trade. If price close below the S50, I will exit all three trades and then look for a trade towards the low of the channel.
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  • #291
  • Dec 16, 2020 4:43pm Dec 16, 2020 4:43pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Less is more. Don't miss the easy things first. Start by just looking at the things you are choosing to put on the chart. You are marking swings. You have a simple50 and a pivot. Master that first. If you are going into much more detail... too complex. Be the master of simple things. And always start with evaluating yourself.
Thanks G. I will keep my analysis to only these 3. Swings, S50 and pivot. And also LLs LHs etc.
  • #292
  • Dec 17, 2020 8:54am Dec 17, 2020 8:54am
Quoting Rearden
17 Dec UP Bias, UP move The price has turned to an up move. Even though the price has broken and closed above the range, there was no bullish candle which has opened and closed in the direction of the break to confirm it. Price is in a 150 pip range. In big ranges, it is better to wait for the price to come to the lower area to reduce the risk and then take the trade. Past few days, price has been consistently retracing to the S50 and pivot and then going up. So I have placed a #2 and #3 trade. If price close below the S50, I will exit all three...
Price went up significantly without much retrace and is approaching significant swing high areas on daily. If price hold above 2244 area, the white line would significantly shift up to 2223. I will keep a close watch and try to take profit if it fails to break higher since it is slowly approaching previous swing highs on htf.
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  • #293
  • Edited 4:57pm Dec 17, 2020 4:32pm | Edited 4:57pm
18 Dec
Up bias Up move

The price went up and held above. The last candle didn't break higher unlike previous instances where it consistently broke higher. I placed a SL below that area just incase it break higher again.
Whether it break higher or come back to hit SL, this was a good trade. I was able to patiently wait and observe what price is doing in relation to S50. I didnt freak out or feel frustrated when price was moving sideways. I was more focused on what price did in relation to what i have on chart. For this trade any time the price came below the S50 it was quickly rejected to the upside. This combined with LH, HLs provided clues on these setups. I will continue to take #3b and then observe the results based on location as well.

Today is Friday. I will not enter any new trade. I will wait for price to settle down and take trades next week keeping in mind that it is at previous swing high areas on HTFs
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  • #294
  • Dec 18, 2020 5:48pm Dec 18, 2020 5:48pm
Quoting Rearden
18 Dec Up bias Up move The price went up and held above. The last candle didn't break higher unlike previous instances where it consistently broke higher. I placed a SL below that area just incase it break higher again. Whether it break higher or come back to hit SL, this was a good trade. I was able to patiently wait and observe what price is doing in relation to S50. I didnt freak out or feel frustrated when price was moving sideways. I was more focused on what price did in relation to what i have on chart. For this trade any time the price came...
Market came down and the trade gave 133 pips.
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  • #295
  • Dec 18, 2020 6:08pm Dec 18, 2020 6:08pm
Weekly Summary 14 Dec to 18 Dec
======================

Just one trade for the whole week. So it was exercising patience the whole week. Mentally I was ok to hold the trade since I was viewing it from #3b lessons that I learned from last week's loosing trade vs trade that worked out week before last perspective. I was not very fearful when the market dropped due to the actions at S50 The repeated action from the MA and also the angle of S50 gave confidence to hold it longer. This week, I was able to keep the analysis simple and I will try to repeat that next week.

The market is nearing the previous swing high areas in weekly and created LH but still closed above S50. I look forward to follow my rules and repeat the process to ingrain these trading principles to my brain.
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  • #296
  • Edited 7:52pm Dec 20, 2020 6:03pm | Edited 7:52pm
21 Dec-Monday

Bias: UP, Move: UP

The market opened below my white line and S50 with a gap. As observed previously during bias weeks its better to wait for the price to come to bottom of the range or wait for price to close back above S50/pivot before engaging. I will wait for the price to close back above S50 before placing any orders. If the price hold below 1.2223 then price will turn to a down move and I will wait for a #3b trade to get involved.

Also, as observed previously, the price failed to break higher and is also near previous swing highs on weekly.
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  • #297
  • Edited 5:46pm Dec 21, 2020 4:45pm | Edited 5:46pm
22 Dec
Bias UP, Move UP

Price has turned back to an UP move and closed above the S50. Yesterday price opened and closed below the pivot for the first time after 5 days. I placed a pending order at S50 because of the larger spread.

The price is in a 123 pip range and also back to previous highs. I have observed and also read G commenting "Getting back below the s50 after a failed run has been a good indicator that we might go test the lows". I will watch out for this. I think if the price close below the S50 it will be better to exit and then wait for a signal at the bottom of the channel and then buy.
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  • #298
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:40pm Dec 22, 2020 4:40pm
23 Dec -Wednesday
UP bias, up move

Since the price opened above the S50 yesterday, I didn't exit. I saw that G had exited at the price from where it came from due to the S50 moving down. Also, I had placed an entry down at the bottom of the range instead of the pivot. So I saw the trade management in this scenario and what G did differently. Both the entries are as per rules but the targets were not aggressive due to the location and also the MA. I was able to see both of this yesterday but I didn't act as what the situation demands. Due to the location and also the MA moving down, I should have taken the profit when price was back at the swing high. I will take note of this.

This looks like the range trading that I did at the start of the exercise. As observed last time it is better to wait for the price to show a signal that it wants to go up and then engage. But I will stick with rules and place an order since the price is below the MA and above the white line.
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  • #299
  • Dec 22, 2020 5:04pm Dec 22, 2020 5:04pm
Quoting Rearden
23 Dec -Wednesday UP bias, up move Since the price opened above the S50 yesterday, I didn't exit. I saw that G had exited at the price from where it came from due to the S50 moving down. Also, I had placed an entry down at the bottom of the range instead of the pivot. So I saw the trade management in this scenario and what G did differently. Both the entries are as per rules but the targets were not aggressive due to the location and also the MA. I was able to see both of this yesterday but I didn't act as what the situation demands. Due to the...
Right, I am just taking what the exercise is showing me so far and implementing those things within our rules. So, I saw that a down moving s50 might be a problem and it was again. I didn't change any rules, I just said to myself, make sure to take that profit because of the down moving s50. Remember, it was the difference we could see from the limited things we are using to make decisions.

You changed that second entry from the pivot to lower... that's fine. But, make sure you ask yourself when you are doing that... why am I doing this? The very reason you put in a lower second entry is the very reason you'd want to take that profit up top.

Now, where should your head be? What's the question? Stop, think about it, and then continue reading.

The next logical question is, what should I expect out of this lower entry? Where could it go and run into trouble?

I'd suggest keeping these entries and treat this series just like the earliest ones we did. You've got an entry down here, which would follow the rules and let them play out. Price still came from the top of the range, so see if it can get back up there and then take profit if it does. If it doesn't and the trade is a loss, no big deal. Hopefully you are figuring out that you are gonna see this setup over and over for the next 100 years. Price doesn't do much else from what we've already seen. It moves and it ranges.

As you noted in your comments, watch and see if it retakes the 50 and pivot and then see if that trade works out or doesn't. We don't know what it's gonna do, but we pretty much have a plan for anything at this point. You just have to keep doing it and keep watching it and figure out what works and what doesn't. Then, down the road, you size up bit by bit and keep doing it over and over.
Be bullish on you.
  • #300
  • Dec 23, 2020 7:09am Dec 23, 2020 7:09am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Right, I am just taking what the exercise is showing me so far and implementing those things within our rules. So, I saw that a down moving s50 might be a problem and it was again. I didn't change any rules, I just said to myself, make sure to take that profit because of the down moving s50. Remember, it was the difference we could see from the limited things we are using to make decisions. You changed that second entry from the pivot to lower... that's fine. But, make sure you ask yourself when you are doing that... why am I doing this?...
Yes G. This makes sense in this scenario. The very reason you put in a lower second entry is the very reason you'd want to take that profit up top."

I think I should note this and start acting(exit without hesitation) on it. Yes, I am now noticing these recurring price behaviors. As you said I have to repeat it again and again so that I get more practice and react accordingly based on those experiences.

Yes I am still holding the trade to see how it behaves.



Thank you for the explanation on this scenario...... It helps to bring clarity to my thoughts especially this "The next logical question is, what should I expect out of this lower entry? Where could it go and run into trouble?".
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