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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,721
  • Dec 22, 2020 9:41am Dec 22, 2020 9:41am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I developed a numerical system where I re-adjust price by volume. The computation is done on MS Excel. We had the highest net sell volume at that (re-adjusted) price yesterday. Something similar to the Point Of Control for profile traders (though my method is completely different) {image}
Nice work. I like to see traders make these unique and unconventional discoveries.
  • #10,722
  • Dec 22, 2020 9:41am Dec 22, 2020 9:41am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I will sell USDJPY if the current hour closes as a bearish bodied candle. It is over extended to the upside for today. Trade safe!
USDJPY closed outside the 3 standard deviation band in the previous hour (I call that over priced/over bought for the current day).

If the current hour closes with a bearish body, I expect a sell off on that pair.
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  • #10,723
  • Dec 22, 2020 9:51am Dec 22, 2020 9:51am
Gold: same method showed 1880.64 as the VAP (Volume Adjusted Price) resistance for today
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  • #10,724
  • Dec 22, 2020 9:52am Dec 22, 2020 9:52am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} USDJPY closed outside the 3 standard deviation band in the previous hour (I call that over priced/over bought for the current day). If the current hour closes with a bearish body, I expect a sell off on that pair. {image}
Let's see. At the moment USD looks quite bullish. I am looking for 103.750 and 104 for TPs for this long setup.
Attached Image
  • #10,725
  • Dec 22, 2020 9:56am Dec 22, 2020 9:56am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Let's see. At the moment USD looks quite bullish. I am looking for 103.750 and 104 for TPs for this long setup. {image}
No bearish close on H1.

This can still get to 103.83
  • #10,726
  • Dec 22, 2020 9:57am Dec 22, 2020 9:57am
Quoting pipcenturion
Gold: same method showed 1880.64 as the VAP (Volume Adjusted Price) resistance for today {image}
VAP: Value Added Pips
Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,727
  • Dec 22, 2020 9:58am Dec 22, 2020 9:58am
My next buy levels
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,728
  • Dec 22, 2020 10:00am Dec 22, 2020 10:00am
Quoting pipcenturion
Gold: same method showed 1880.64 as the VAP (Volume Adjusted Price) resistance for today {image}
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  • #10,729
  • Dec 22, 2020 10:04am Dec 22, 2020 10:04am
GBPUSD

buy trade taken
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  • #10,730
  • Edited 7:19pm Dec 22, 2020 10:08am | Edited 7:19pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade update. It seems a 5 wave impulsive move to the upside is completed. I'm expecting an abc correction to 1.2075/1.21. Levels to watch 1.2175/1.22, 1.21/1.2125, and 1.2050/75 on the downside. If EU starts going up again, 1.2275/1.23 can provide short setups. {image}
EURUSD, short trade update. It seems the abc correction was not wrong after all. I'm expecting this wave C ends up somewhere between 1.2125-1.21

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD 1.2250 short trade, as easy as it gets. I'd like to hear about any other method that is simpler or more efficient than this approach. Possible levels on the chart. {image}
...

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The EU bounce off 1.2125 is very similar to GU bounce off 1.3175 back in September. You almost question the short bias. EU should remain below 1.2230, otherwise, the comparison is wrong.
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  • #10,731
  • Dec 22, 2020 10:11am Dec 22, 2020 10:11am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I developed a numerical system where I re-adjust price by volume. The computation is done on MS Excel. We had the highest net sell volume at that (re-adjusted) price yesterday. Something similar to the Point Of Control for profile traders (though my method is completely different) {image}
Is there a difference with the market profile indicator?
  • #10,732
  • Dec 22, 2020 10:33am Dec 22, 2020 10:33am
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Is there a difference with the market profile indicator?
Yes, it is completely different.

What I do is similar to cumulative delta volume on one hand and the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) on the other hand.

Though the calculations are completely different.
  • #10,733
  • Edited 10:54am Dec 22, 2020 10:39am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCAD, long trade update. Such a clean trade. Possible levels 1.29 and 1.2950 {image}
Yes USDCAD is looking better every time I look at it. What do you think of these targets of 1.30 and 1.31?

I am actually starting to think we probably didn't need to aggressively seek that low over last few weeks, but rather take this first clean retracement.

Of course 1.27 was a no brainer long as well.

USDCHF - Another pair that gave us hard times these last few weeks...
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  • #10,734
  • Dec 22, 2020 10:52am Dec 22, 2020 10:52am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Yes, it is completely different. What I do is similar to cumulative delta volume on one hand and the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) on the other hand. Though the calculations are completely different.
Good idea
So (eg. yesterday) you see where there was the max point of pressure from sellers and when bulls entered in the market, and you translate that point in today price, right?

And you use volume from your forex broker for this, correct?
  • #10,735
  • Dec 22, 2020 11:06am Dec 22, 2020 11:06am
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Good idea So (eg. yesterday) you see where there was the max point of pressure from sellers and when bulls entered in the market, and you translate that point in today price, right? And you use volume from your forex broker for this, correct?
The absolute maximum cumulative net volume for each day has a corresponding Volume Adjusted Price.

This level proves to be very important for the next day (or until it is tested).
  • #10,736
  • Dec 22, 2020 11:10am Dec 22, 2020 11:10am
Quoting Vincent1
{quote} Good idea So (eg. yesterday) you see where there was the max point of pressure from sellers and when bulls entered in the market, and you translate that point in today price, right? And you use volume from your forex broker for this, correct?
The absolute maximum cumulative net volume for each day has a corresponding Volume Adjusted Price.

This level proves to be very important for the next day (or until it is tested).

Many of the turns we see in the market happen on the retest of such levels.

I am aware that FX doesn't have a centralized exchange and as such, many people will say that volume is unimportant/cannot be used but this is not true. Traders only need to learn how to process the volume data given. The volume given on MT4 is not in a readily useable form. It contains both buy quantity and sell quantity. The effective volume which moves price is the difference (delta) between the buy and sell volume. I have found a pretty interesting way of distinguishing between the buy volume and sell volume. A way completely different from the cumulative delta volume approach.

It is with this effective volume that I re-adjust price (more like saying the cost per unit for each period).
  • #10,737
  • Dec 22, 2020 11:16am Dec 22, 2020 11:16am
GBPUSD trades for today from entry to exit.
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  • #10,738
  • Dec 22, 2020 1:38pm Dec 22, 2020 1:38pm
Quoting pipcenturion
GBPUSD trades for today from entry to exit. {image}
1hr SW test
Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,739
  • Dec 22, 2020 2:03pm Dec 22, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes USDCAD is looking better every time I look at it. What do you think of these targets of 1.30 and 1.31? I am actually starting to think we probably didn't need to aggressively seek that low over last few weeks, but rather take this first clean retracement. Of course 1.27 was a no brainer long as well. USDCHF - Another pair that gave us hard times these last few weeks... {image} {image}
why you dont trade Dax30 ? it is very nice to trade. i made more then all currencies on Dax30 and sp500 . zones and fib works great too on indexes mate .
  • #10,740
  • Dec 22, 2020 2:07pm Dec 22, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting pointlessfor
{quote} why you dont trade Dax30 ? it is very nice to trade. i made more then all currencies on Dax30 and sp500 . zones and fib works great too on indexes mate .
I usually trade US30 in the NY session, and sometimes DAX in London but I'm often tied up with the FX pairs.

Been selling pullbacks on US30 today, looking for this to eventually crack these lows, but it's being a stubborn animal. These were simple retracement setups.

The indices have been quite dull since the election week, usually have nice bit of movement to them.
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