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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #8,101
  • Dec 17, 2020 11:28pm Dec 17, 2020 11:28pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} As it only tagged it I consider 3608 3624 a weak level: It is not clearly a good year high as it is a poor GB high also tagged by a Pit session. So even if a liquidation is always possible considering the structure below, I think this level should be re-tested again, before or after. Monitor for Pit POC migration upside to have a clue.

Well, it liquidated everything. And we now have a very precious info: we do not have a good year high at 3624. It can last for sometime but when something will go wrong downside you'll know exactly where price will go.

Even if this year will close with such an high (and I cannot say yes or no about that) you can be sure that, unless some extraordinary exogenous event (the end of the pair? the end of the world?) before or after that high will be taken out.
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  • #8,102
  • Dec 18, 2020 1:43am Dec 18, 2020 1:43am
lock i have this and it jumped straight from that level of 3519. i think we need to retest that level to know trend for today. if it breaks that in 2nd attempt it is clearly bearish for next week with a retest of 3377
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  • #8,103
  • Dec 18, 2020 2:02am Dec 18, 2020 2:02am
Quoting giveachance
lock i have this and it jumped straight from that level of 3519. i think we need to retest that level to know trend for today. if it breaks that in 2nd attempt it is clearly bearish for next week with a retest of 3377 {image}
exactly what i said
  • #8,104
  • Dec 18, 2020 10:13am Dec 18, 2020 10:13am
Sorry, I've not been present all day long. Have a nice continuation and see you next week.
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  • #8,105
  • Dec 20, 2020 11:53pm Dec 20, 2020 11:53pm
Cable situation.

 

  1. We are in a monthly trend upside with an attempted rally above October inside month high 3150 and in a weekly and daily balance.
  2. We have a yearly weak and poor high at 3624 (that is a GB poor high tagged by a Pit session high)
  3. we left upside a triple Pit gap at 35365-3545 and a double GB gap at 35505-3568
  4. Price action is currently contained between 2 "absolute" weekly gaps: downside from 3233 to 32795 and upside from 3471 to 3439 we have 2 "clean" un-tested by all sessions price zones.

Note that 3233 is only some pip above 2016 Brexit low 3227 (psychological level) while 3439 (also current poor Sydney weekly high) is slightly below GB 2019 high 34295 (an other fundamental psychological level)

So:

  1. a first possibility is to fill the lower gap 3233-32795 without getting acceptance below 3227 (and especially 3150) and then retrace back upside to fill the upper gap 3471-3439 , fill the 2 GB and Pit multi-pass gaps at 35365-3545 and 35505-3568 and eventually take out current poor yearly high 3624
  2. A second possibility is to do the exact opposite: go upside, fill the upper absolute gap 3471-3439 , fill the 2 GB and Pit multi-pass gaps at 35365-3545 and 35505-3568 , take out current poor yearly high 3624 and eventually retrace back downside to clean 3233-32795, gaining acceptation below 3227 and eventually retest 3150 (October GB high)
  3. a third option is to continue lower leaving upside a monster (Pit triple gap, GB double gap, absolute gap and poor yearly high)
  4. the last one is to do the opposite leaving the full gap downside without correction and remove everything upside

I consider the first or second of such possibilities very normal. The fourth one improbable but possible (considering the mess upside and the monthly trend) and the third one very improbable (but still possible)

In any case I strongly suggest to take this market a piece at a time and to have always in mind all the possible options in order to be able to switch among them if necessary. The level I've stressed are the ones you should consider in your decisions.

Other relevant GB levels are:

  1. 34945 last week GB close
  2. 34145 Highest GB September close
  3. 3397 GB November high
  4. 3382 December GB open
  5. 33765 highest GB close of November
  6. 3338 GB November close

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  • #8,106
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:45am Dec 21, 2020 12:45am
Quoting Lock
Cable situation. We are in a monthly trend upside with an attempted rally above October inside month high 3150 and in a weekly and daily balance. We have a yearly weak and poor high at 3624 (that is a GB poor high tagged by a Pit session high) we left upside a triple Pit gap at 35365-3545 and a double GB gap at 35505-3568 Price action is currently contained between 2 "absolute" weekly gaps: downside from 3233 to 32795 and upside from 3471 to 3439 we have 2 "clean" un-tested by all sessions price zones. Note that 3233 is only some pip above 2016...

Levels noted thank you
new week light trading till end of year
let’s keep making pips
  • #8,107
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:45am Dec 21, 2020 12:45am
Quoting Lock
So: a first possibility is to fill the lower gap 3233-32795 without getting acceptance below 3227 (and especially 3150) and then retrace back upside to fill the upper gap 3471-3439 , fill the 2 GB and Pit multi-pass gaps at 35365-3545 and 35505-3568 and eventually take out current poor yearly high 3624 A second possibility is to do the exact opposite: go upside, fill the upper absolute gap 3471-3439 , fill the 2 GB and Pit multi-pass gaps at 35365-3545 and 35505-3568 , take out current poor yearly high 3624 and eventually retrace back downside to...
How long do you suppose this movements will occur? By this week? By 2020? Or over the next few months?

Great sharing Lock. I love how you state the different possibilities and let viewers of this thread analyse it on their own instead of some individuals on the Cable thread posting their views and slamming others who disagrees.
  • #8,108
  • Dec 21, 2020 3:00am Dec 21, 2020 3:00am
Quoting HiImNew
{quote} How long do you suppose this movements will occur? By this week? By 2020? Or over the next few months? Great sharing Lock. I love how you state the different possibilities and let viewers of this thread analyse it on their own instead of some individuals on the Cable thread posting their views and slamming others who disagrees.

Considering the world mess, I've no idea. To leave a weak and poor year high at 3624 after year close could eventually force a test of it next year. But I really cannot give a timing of anything as current situation is extraordinary uncertain. So uncertain and so weak that I will not be surprised at all to see a big shakeout lasting a couple of days (at any moment in time from now). Consider anyhow that the presence of different gaps (GB and Pit) at the same levels will necessary need the action of multiple sessions. So even a huge fast shakeout will need at least two sessions in a raw (GB and Pit, or Pit and GB)
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  • #8,109
  • Dec 21, 2020 5:11am Dec 21, 2020 5:11am
So currently do you consider this as a acceptance below 3227 already?
  • #8,110
  • Dec 21, 2020 11:38am Dec 21, 2020 11:38am
Quoting HiImNew
So currently do you consider this as a acceptance below 3227 already?
I was not present: it was a technical acceptation but clearly in an impossible situation to sustain. As I wrote multiple times acceptation is a complex concept based upon different factors. One of them is structure: the structure above GB acceptation below 3227 was astonishing weak, so at least a correction was clearly a possibility.
Now I repeat it, I was not present and I hate to cherry pick. But Tokyo went down with a poor high preceded by a Sydney poor high. I was present in the last two Tokyo periods and even if I had reasons to imagine the filling of the lower weekly gap, I was so scared by the structure that I did not sell at that moment in time. If I was there after, when GB added 5 periods in a raw downside after Tokyo without any correction, surely I would not have sold.
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  • #8,111
  • Dec 21, 2020 11:48am Dec 21, 2020 11:48am
Anyhow, it looks like we are in the first scenario or in the the third one. And again, the third one looks to me improbable, but still possible as we do not take out the double pit gap 32555-3264. The first scenario looks instead very reasonable, eventually coming back later to take out that pit double gap 32555-3264 or even leaving it there for a long period of time. (a double gap can last for months)

Let this market develop and take it a piece at a time.

Quoting Lock
[...]So: a first possibility is to fill the lower gap 3233-32795 without getting acceptance below 3227 (and especially 3150) and then retrace back upside to fill the upper gap 3471-3439 , fill the 2 GB and Pit multi-pass gaps at 35365-3545 and 35505-3568 and eventually take out current poor yearly high 3624
Quoting Lock
A second possibility is to do the exact opposite: go upside, fill the upper absolute gap 3471-3439 , fill the 2 GB and Pit multi-pass gaps at 35365-3545 and 35505-3568 , take out current poor yearly high 3624 and eventually retrace back downside to clean 3233-32795, gaining acceptation below 3227 and eventually retest 3150 (October GB high)
Quoting Lock
a third option is to continue lower leaving upside a monster (Pit triple gap, GB double gap, absolute gap and poor yearly high)
Quoting Lock
the last one is to do the opposite leaving the full gap downside without correction and remove everything upside

Quoting Lock
I consider the first or second of such possibilities very normal. The fourth one improbable but possible (considering the mess upside and the monthly trend) and the third one very improbable (but still possible) In any case I strongly suggest to take this market a piece at a time and to have always in mind all the possible options in order to be able to switch among them if necessary. The level I've stressed are the ones you should consider in your decisions. Other relevant GB levels are: 34945 last week GB close 34145 Highest GB September close...
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  • #8,112
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:12pm Dec 21, 2020 12:12pm
3377 is 2019 pit high: take note
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  • #8,113
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:30pm Dec 21, 2020 12:30pm
Quoting Lock
3377 is 2019 pit high: take note
And 33475 is December Pit open. So 33475 and 3377 are clearly the major pit levels in this price zone. Act accordingly.
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  • #8,114
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:34pm Dec 21, 2020 12:34pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} And 33475 is December Pit open. So 33475 and 3377 are clearly the major pit levels in this price zone. Act accordingly.

like, for instance: if it fails above 3377 (or to even reach it), back to 33475.. Or if it gain acceptance above 3377, continuation to test 3394 Pit November high...
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  • #8,115
  • Dec 21, 2020 12:35pm Dec 21, 2020 12:35pm
Anyhow, have a nice continuation and see you tomorrow. I hope to be present during GB session.
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  • #8,116
  • Dec 22, 2020 1:01am Dec 22, 2020 1:01am
Cable situation: still monthly trend upside (as we are above October inside month high) and December didn't took out November low. And Weekly and daily balance.

Yesterday GB and Pit managed to take out the 2 weekly gaps: GB took out 3233-32795 while Pit took out 3471-3439

The problem is that GB can now open inside a full GB gap zone: from yesterday GB high 3299 to Friday low 3489
Furthermore inside this gap we have a double gap zone from 3397 to 3473 and price is currently ranging around its lower extreme (3397)

If GB will open around here we will have also a double GB gap from yesterday high 3299:

So, potentially from yesterday high 3299 to 3473 we could have a GB double gap: and we can open inside it. And this can lead to an other shake out as we saw yesterday, this time performed entirely by GB session.

Other important refs for GB:

  1. GB last week close 34945
  2. GB 2019 high 34295
  3. GB November high 3397 (also base of current GB double gap)
  4. GB December open 3382
  5. yesterday GB close 3352
  6. GB November close 3338
  7. GB inside week high 32975 , slightly below current gap base 3299

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  • #8,117
  • Dec 22, 2020 1:09am Dec 22, 2020 1:09am
Quoting Lock
[...]: a first possibility is to fill the lower gap 3233-32795 without getting acceptance below 3227 (and especially 3150) and then retrace back upside to fill the upper gap 3471-3439 , fill the 2 GB and Pit multi-pass gaps at 35365-3545 and 35505-3568 and eventually take out current poor yearly high 3624[...]
Quoting Lock
[...]a third option is to continue lower leaving upside a monster (Pit triple gap, GB double gap, absolute gap and poor yearly high) .[...]

Remember that at least for now, we can be in the first scenario or in the third one (with some little modifications to it (as we already took out the weekly absolute gap left upside).
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  • #8,118
  • Dec 22, 2020 1:50am Dec 22, 2020 1:50am
If GB will open around here note that from 3397 to GB open will be triple GB gap zone because from 3397 to 3473 is already double gap...
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  • #8,119
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:10am Dec 22, 2020 4:10am
Quoting Lock
If GB will open around here note that from 3397 to GB open will be triple GB gap zone because from 3397 to 3473 is already double gap...
3397 is now crucial: triple gap filled. Monitor for acceptation or rejection below 3397. If rejection back upside 3473 and or 3489. If acceptation down to yes GB high 3299
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  • #8,120
  • Dec 22, 2020 4:39am Dec 22, 2020 4:39am
Not only 3397, use also 3382 GB Dec open for evaluation.
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