Disliked{quote} ADD ON. get an edge with the first trade,,, 08-00 bar break for one,Ignored
1
Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout
- #54,962
- Dec 18, 2020 7:33am Dec 18, 2020 7:33am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,867 Posts
{quote} So do you go long with a counter trade of the same size or double the initial size? Thanks in advance..
I originally said lets pretend it is Monday. Why you ask???? Because if we have a fail we have all week to fix it. (this is an example).
we also do it early in the day when price is volatile.
We also do it when the range is low.
Now for size???? i will post a chart later.
if the range is small and we fail, we can counter at same price because the daily range will normally fix it.
AND we have the second trade, This is what Avery speaks of.
IF YOU WANT, USE A STOP AND CLOSE THE FAIL.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
- #54,963
- Dec 18, 2020 10:28am Dec 18, 2020 10:28am
Thank you Billy. 5 Pips/day is fine for me.
I was going back through several months of the current year. The only way I found out to end up net positive / get away with +5 even if that’s only by the end of the week, by just trading the BillyBar setup, would be to fix any of the „fails“.
So it is essential to fix it otherwise the math is simple you end up negative more often than not or were lucky not trading it every day and left out the bigger fails where you had to counter. I guess luck is no option for people doing this seriously, great if you pass a fail but nothing you could plan.
So if fixing it is about taking the next break or setup going for +5 again. Let’s say
Monday = +5%
Tuesday = +5%
Wed = -27% (Range 27 Points)
Thursday = +5%
Friday = +5%
You end the week at -7%. Far away from +5% even more far away from +5/day or +25/week.
Now let’s assume you would have fixed the fail on Thursday or Friday for b/e you would end up with 4 x 5% = +20%
So all good if you were able to fix it. I still wouldn’t see the advantage on the counter here instead of booking in -27 if the plan ist to trade tomorrows setup anyways. If next day is a textbook win again you reduced it to -22.
Maybe i am too stupid for this
Good weekend to all.
I was going back through several months of the current year. The only way I found out to end up net positive / get away with +5 even if that’s only by the end of the week, by just trading the BillyBar setup, would be to fix any of the „fails“.
So it is essential to fix it otherwise the math is simple you end up negative more often than not or were lucky not trading it every day and left out the bigger fails where you had to counter. I guess luck is no option for people doing this seriously, great if you pass a fail but nothing you could plan.
So if fixing it is about taking the next break or setup going for +5 again. Let’s say
Monday = +5%
Tuesday = +5%
Wed = -27% (Range 27 Points)
Thursday = +5%
Friday = +5%
You end the week at -7%. Far away from +5% even more far away from +5/day or +25/week.
Now let’s assume you would have fixed the fail on Thursday or Friday for b/e you would end up with 4 x 5% = +20%
So all good if you were able to fix it. I still wouldn’t see the advantage on the counter here instead of booking in -27 if the plan ist to trade tomorrows setup anyways. If next day is a textbook win again you reduced it to -22.
Maybe i am too stupid for this
Good weekend to all.
- #54,964
- Dec 18, 2020 10:44am Dec 18, 2020 10:44am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
No screen time for me today. Shame, as the Z-Line here would have paid for all of Santa's gifts and more, with minimum effort.
US30 30-min
US30 30-min
- #54,966
- Dec 18, 2020 11:24am Dec 18, 2020 11:24am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
{quote} Avery, read the above post from June this year. The information contained within this post should set you on the straight and narrow hopefully. As I say in the post, all of the information I have gleaned has been from this forum, from the counter/hedge masters themselves. Billy, Claudia, Lem and all of the regulars, hope you guys are all well. I haven’t been on much due to personal reasons. Will hopefully be back soon.
TA-DAH!!!
The old post just keeps on giving, lol.
Good to hear from you, buddy and thanks for this. Maybe, just maybe, the horse will begin to drink.
- #54,970
- Dec 18, 2020 12:34pm Dec 18, 2020 12:34pm
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
Have a good weekend, everyone. Things being as they are and the time of year and all that, don't see me doing much next week but will be popping in as always to make sure you're all behaving yourselves! 
- #54,971
- Dec 18, 2020 1:57pm Dec 18, 2020 1:57pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,867 Posts
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
- #54,975
- Dec 19, 2020 11:38am Dec 19, 2020 11:38am
{quote} Let me try and address your confusion here. I too, was in the same boat at the start. People think the purpose of the counter is to try and get out of the losing trade. That's not the case here. The purpose of the counter is to hold the loss in place. You could easily use a stop loss (should definitely use a stop loss to start with, until very experienced). Now that the trade is held in a 15 pip loss (or whatever that number is), Billy and others here choose to forget about it for now. They then look for different triggers on the same day,...
Will going to try this on demo first for some time.
So like i already thought without having a failed breakout on this setup fixed at some point depending on how often this will be the case + of what size of the range it would be unrealistic to end up net profitable just doing this.
Maybe end up with +5% then on a very good month without more than 2-3 fails at a ranges of lower size.
Not interested in trading multiple other setups/methods for now.
regards and thanks again.
