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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,541
  • Dec 18, 2020 6:50am Dec 18, 2020 6:50am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Apologies for not clearing it up HG. Actually it did seem like a lot of technical jargon we were talking. Basically it was all about taking profits. Counter trend reversal trades - Bank profits at 50/75/100 pips. Trend continuation trades - Bank profits at 100,200 pips or more. That was basically it. While I'm here EURJPY - These setups always bring about a warm satisfying feeling when you catch them. USDJPY might be rolling as well. {image}
Good job on EJ short. I waited for the pa confirmation before closing my long trade and switching to short, leading to a sloppy entry, haha.

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURJPY, long trade update. Let's see the reaction @ 127 for a possible short trade. {image}
...
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  • #10,542
  • Dec 18, 2020 6:54am Dec 18, 2020 6:54am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Good job on EJ short. I waited for the pa confirmation before closing my long trade and switching to short, leading to a sloppy entry, haha. {quote} ... {image}
I think we really need to get you back on the performance improvement plan we were discussing.

Actually I'd forgotten all about EJ 127 until today l had an alert on it for about 2 weeks. MT4 alerting is not too shabby once you've got all the Audio files in place.

I am guessing you also caught USDJPY 103.500?
  • #10,543
  • Dec 18, 2020 6:58am Dec 18, 2020 6:58am
We may see some action later today, specially on EU.
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  • #10,544
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:01am Dec 18, 2020 7:01am
Quoting shahab8b
We may see some action later today, specially on EU. {image}
It is interesting to see these options are quoted in full, half and quarters. This may well partially explain the reason these levels are regularly producing.

Sometimes prices turn a couple pips ahead of them. Seems games are being played.
  • #10,545
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:08am Dec 18, 2020 7:08am
Quoting C-12
{quote} It is interesting to see these options are quoted in full, half and quarters. This may well partially explain the reason these levels are regularly producing. Sometimes prices turn a couple pips ahead of them. Seems games are being played.
Well, that's one major reason these levels work. And many novice traders don't pay attention to this matter.
  • #10,546
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:12am Dec 18, 2020 7:12am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Well, that's one major reason these levels work. And many novice traders don't pay attention to this matter.
On the topic of novice traders, I might need a serious slap in the face for prematurely exiting this GBPUSD short.
  • #10,547
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:16am Dec 18, 2020 7:16am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I have a long USDCHF from 0.8825 as well. That diagonal pattern will get resolved at some point one way or the other. {image}
USDCHF long trade. I had to reload my long UCHF. But this time, I was watching the pa closely (M5) before pulling the trigger. Questions being asked how we trade these levels, there are two ways to go about this: (1) you can either enter right at the level using a pending order or manually (with a sl of 20-25 pips), or (2) you can wait for the pa confirmation. The latter is safer, but it will lead to a delayed entry (and yes 5-15 pips is considered a delayed entry in my book).
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  • #10,548
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:18am Dec 18, 2020 7:18am
Quoting C-12
{quote} On the topic of novice traders, I might need a serious slap in the face for prematurely exiting this GBPUSD short.
I thought you were just hedging which was the right thing to do given the pa.
  • #10,549
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:24am Dec 18, 2020 7:24am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I thought you were just hedging which was the right thing to do given the pa.
Technically the short was a counter play and I'm trying to be more mechanical with those exits, but it's going to be very annoying if that was the top...

I also did not take any profits out of the long either and now BE.. Double annoying.
  • #10,550
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:26am Dec 18, 2020 7:26am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Technically the short was a counter play and I'm trying to be more mechanical with those exits, but it's going to be very annoying if that was the top... I also did not take any profits out of the long either and now BE.. Double annoying.
There is no solution to that problem tbh (not that I know of). And this thing might just go up again.
  • #10,551
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:30am Dec 18, 2020 7:30am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} There is no solution to that problem tbh (not that I know of). And this thing might just go up again.
It is a lot easier if you've just one or two pairs to monitor. But when you've got 20 on the list, it's impossible to track every level and turn.

I see GU got almost 1.3350 and turned, this can be improved with some sharper focus on setting TP or price alerts.

1.35 is still in play.
  • #10,552
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:34am Dec 18, 2020 7:34am
Quoting C-12
{quote} It is a lot easier if you've just one or two pairs to monitor. But when you've got 20 on the list, it's impossible to track every level and turn. I see GU got almost 1.3350 and turned, this can be improved with some sharper focus on setting TP or price alerts. 1.35 is still in play.
At some point we need to automatize the whole process. Not just the confluence level trading, but other methods as well. I have some good trend following models that work great but they need automation. We need to find some good programmers.
  • #10,553
  • Dec 18, 2020 7:50am Dec 18, 2020 7:50am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} At some point we need to automatize the whole process. Not just the confluence level trading, but other methods as well. I have some good trend following models that work great but they need automation. We need to find some good programmers.
This way of trading is extremely rewarding, but it's labour intensive, requiring a lot of screen time, alerting and and order management.

Right now trading is quite fun and enjoyable, that might not be the case in few years time.

It certainly looks like it can be automated (or even semi automated), and we have all the information needed with price levels and fibs. Some of the very low timeframes appear to be an untapped resource on M5/M1 as well.

When I travel to Thailand in early Jan and end up stuck in state quarantine, I am going to do a lot of back testing.
  • #10,554
  • Dec 18, 2020 8:01am Dec 18, 2020 8:01am
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  • #10,555
  • Dec 18, 2020 8:12am Dec 18, 2020 8:12am
Quoting C-12
{quote} I think we really need to get you back on the performance improvement plan we were discussing. Actually I'd forgotten all about EJ 127 until today l had an alert on it for about 2 weeks. MT4 alerting is not too shabby once you've got all the Audio files in place. I am guessing you also caught USDJPY 103.500?
I took you up on UJ 103.50. It seems 103 is on again.
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  • #10,556
  • Dec 18, 2020 8:16am Dec 18, 2020 8:16am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I took you up on UJ 103.50. It seems 103 is on again. {image}
Yep, it's that 50 pip counter RN rule at it again and I am happy I did just that off 103.

103 might be a reload level for longs.
  • #10,557
  • Dec 18, 2020 8:27am Dec 18, 2020 8:27am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD long trade. Possible levels on the chart, plus 1.23. {image}
EURUSD, short scalping.
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  • #10,558
  • Dec 18, 2020 8:32am Dec 18, 2020 8:32am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short scalping. {image}
That a good catch as that was a fast move.

AUDUSD - I was short this from last night and got tagged for BE.

Found a lower timeframe entry.
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  • #10,559
  • Dec 18, 2020 8:39am Dec 18, 2020 8:39am
Quoting C-12
{quote} That a good catch as that was a fast move. AUDUSD - I was short this from last night and got tagged for BE. Found a lower timeframe entry. {image}
Yes, I also took a short AU scalp using the same method (combination of Fibs, S/R or S/D, and 0.25/0.5RN).

It is very interesting that we end up with the similar trades 90% of the times. It just shows that this method is highly reproducible.
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  • #10,560
  • Dec 18, 2020 8:41am Dec 18, 2020 8:41am
euro reached reversal zone...
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DXY...
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Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
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