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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,501
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:04pm Dec 17, 2020 2:04pm
Quoting Vincent1
Hi Guys, congrats again for the great job you do here, finding the setups all day. I was watching the movements on the Euro Futures before and after yesterday's FOMC. We see that there are strong sales (higher volumes), and then a slow but continuous climb with lower volume. This climb also continued during the Asian session, always at a low volume. As you know volume in Futures is more reliable than Forex because they are real contracts, that's wahy I look for it. {image} So I looked at the changes on open interest, Euro Futures, over the last...
That's great work Vince! You provided a comprehensive analysis. Thank you!
  • #10,502
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:08pm Dec 17, 2020 2:08pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I took you up on GU short @ 1.3625. It may be forming a double top on H1 (I don't count on it though considering how bullish this pair has been). Levels to watch for a possible long. {image}
Yep looks nice and EURUSD skimmed our 1.2275.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 29 KB
  • #10,503
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:17pm Dec 17, 2020 2:17pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Nicely done. 103 looks well placed. USDCAD - Still sat right on 1.27 but not much signs of life. Hit my BE overnight. Reloaded on this but PA totally flatlined I am not sure now where the low is on USDX.. 90 is removed but it's now sat right on W1 demand.
Did you reload UCAD 1.27? This one is looking good as well. Let's see if it can clear 1.2775 this time. Otherwise, we can switch to short at that level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4 1217 .png Size: 33 KB
  • #10,504
  • Edited 2:40pm Dec 17, 2020 2:26pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURGBP, long trade, a routine confluence play. {image}
EURGBP, out of that trade. I think I moved sl to b/e too early. I have not found a solution to this problem. I think that's a side effect of applying strict risk management strategies.

Possible levels on the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPDaily 12 17.png Size: 28 KB
  • #10,505
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:27pm Dec 17, 2020 2:27pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Did you reload UCAD 1.27? This one is looking good as well. Let's see if it can clear 1.2775 this time. Otherwise, we can switch to short at that level. {image}
I took it but got rid of it for about 15 pips profit. I wanted to clear the decks so I could focus on some heavy scalping and ended up letting go of that one.

Feels like volume is drying up now. I not overly keen to hold onto any grinders that will tie up margin needed for scalping.

Still on USDJPY 103 though
  • #10,506
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:31pm Dec 17, 2020 2:31pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I took it but got rid of it for about 15 pips profit. I wanted to clear the decks so I could focus on some heavy scalping and ended up letting go of that one. Feels like volume is drying up now. I not overly keen to hold onto any grinders that will tie up margin needed for scalping. Still on USDJPY 103 though
Yes, today was good for scalping, particularly on GU.
  • #10,507
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:35pm Dec 17, 2020 2:35pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes, today was good for scalping, particularly on GU.
Yes I was not clever enough to get on the GU scalping as quickly as you were.

It got to about lunchtime today and realised I was going nowhere fast, so switched gears and didn't look back.

GBPUSD is a good intraday scalper.
  • #10,508
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:38pm Dec 17, 2020 2:38pm
EURCAD, did any one take 1.54? That was a very good trade. Possible short setups coming up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADDaily 1217.png Size: 30 KB
  • #10,509
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:40pm Dec 17, 2020 2:40pm
Ej
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kk.png Size: 59 KB
  • #10,510
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:41pm Dec 17, 2020 2:41pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURJPY, long trade. Possible setups. {image}
....

Quoting mizi123
Ej {image}
I'm long EJ, but I think a good short setup coming up @ 126.75/127
  • #10,511
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:44pm Dec 17, 2020 2:44pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} .... {quote} I'm long EJ, but I think a good short setup coming up @ 126.75/127
I think is time here somewere to exit
  • #10,512
  • Dec 17, 2020 3:08pm Dec 17, 2020 3:08pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURCHF, possible long setup @ 1.07 {image}
EURCHF, another missed opportunity. I was waiting for 1.07. But 1.0750 provided a great long trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFWeekly 12 17.png Size: 30 KB
  • #10,513
  • Dec 17, 2020 3:51pm Dec 17, 2020 3:51pm
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Great work. Thank you for the information. It is very helpful.
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That's great work Vince! You provided a comprehensive analysis. Thank you!
Thank you
And thanks a lot, you and C-12, meugampong, Roszey, and many others who share your analysis in this thread
  • #10,514
  • Dec 17, 2020 7:33pm Dec 17, 2020 7:33pm
GU

How far can the sell go??

Weekly range 300+ pips
Monthly range 400+ pips

this shows significance for the market to pullback.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4a06e984724b2ad3b5b7bdd27c60ff1f.png Size: 78 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,515
  • Dec 17, 2020 8:49pm Dec 17, 2020 8:49pm
GU ...
a test of the SW zone is likely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fd94b89c9aa7e31bc92d9ecfe8374f83.png Size: 109 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,516
  • Dec 18, 2020 1:51am Dec 18, 2020 1:51am
No. When I posted the charts, I opened shorts on AU. So far so good.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,517
  • Dec 18, 2020 1:53am Dec 18, 2020 1:53am
Quoting Alorente
No. When I posted the charts, I opened shorts on AU. So far so good.
I also opened long on UsdChf. Until Brexit is done, I prefer to stay away from EU and GU.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,518
  • Dec 18, 2020 2:43am Dec 18, 2020 2:43am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, short trade taken after yesterday bearish D1. Possible setup @ 103. {image}
USDJPY, long trade. I took the trade after I confirmed it by the H4 candle. The reason being I had a short bias and I didn't want to close the short trade prematurely. Possible short setups.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 12 18.png Size: 36 KB
  • #10,519
  • Dec 18, 2020 2:49am Dec 18, 2020 2:49am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURJPY, long trade. Possible setups. {image}
EURJPY, long trade update. Let's see the reaction @ 127 for a possible short trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDailyv12 18.png Size: 34 KB
  • #10,520
  • Dec 18, 2020 2:56am Dec 18, 2020 2:56am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURJPY, long trade update. Let's see the reaction @ 127 for a possible short trade. {image}
Do you ever sleep?
Observation is the path to discovery.
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