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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,481
  • Dec 17, 2020 8:57am Dec 17, 2020 8:57am
Quoting C-12
I actually put 50 pips TP down for counter RN setups, which still makes them a very viable setup. Often only needing 10-15 pip SL (that's a regular 4 or 5R trade). For trend trades I put down 100/200 pips (50%) and run the rest at BE. Perhaps for trend trades we don't even need a TP. Let the trend decide the exit, and we can keep adding to these positions.
Quoting shahab8b
Yes, they are selling the USD like there is no tomorrow. In December, the momentum based strategies work best. I expect more S/R level based trades failure, unless they are done in the direction of the trend.
Slow down, guys. This is like a graduate-level class you're giving here. Pipology 575 The Art and Skill of Trading.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #10,482
  • Dec 17, 2020 9:00am Dec 17, 2020 9:00am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} My target is 101 based on this long term chart I have been posting here. But it may find S at your level. You know never know. {image}
yes, we never know..
  • #10,483
  • Dec 17, 2020 9:24am Dec 17, 2020 9:24am
usdcad long, and rapidly set to BE, at least i try the best i can. im so sorry sir, not posting analysis before, it is so dinamic . my entry is at TF m1 Price Action.. .
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  • #10,484
  • Dec 17, 2020 9:25am Dec 17, 2020 9:25am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} My target is 101 based on this long term chart I have been posting here. But it may find S at your level. You know never know. {image}
Strong hold on that sell. I am not fully sure if 103 is totally blown yet it's on a fine thread, but it does seem liquidity is drying up now. I see cable getting pushed around very easily here.

Maybe USD can perk a little here.
  • #10,485
  • Dec 17, 2020 9:54am Dec 17, 2020 9:54am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD long trade. The trend is bullish above 1.35. I'll keep an eye on 1.3625/50 and 1.37. {quote} You have a late entry again, haha! {image}
GBPUSD, short trade. Possible levels on the chart.
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  • #10,486
  • Dec 17, 2020 9:59am Dec 17, 2020 9:59am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Strong hold on that sell. I am not fully sure if 103 is totally blown yet it's on a fine thread, but it does seem liquidity is drying up now. I see cable getting pushed around very easily here. Maybe USD can perk a little here.
I'm no sure about 103. I think we can define a "blown level" when price goes 20-25 pips against you on most majors, and maybe 30 pips on GU. I don't have a number for the crosses.
  • #10,487
  • Dec 17, 2020 10:00am Dec 17, 2020 10:00am
GU might be a buy the dips type of play. Let's see how it goes.
  • #10,488
  • Dec 17, 2020 10:20am Dec 17, 2020 10:20am
EU, scalping short. I'll be looking to buy @ 1.22 if it goes there.
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  • #10,489
  • Dec 17, 2020 10:24am Dec 17, 2020 10:24am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm no sure about 103. I think we can define a "blown level" when price goes 20-25 pips against you on most majors, and maybe 30 pips on GU. I don't have a number for the crosses.
Yes, I think 20-25 pips on majors is about right. In a lot of cases it's zero pips DD. Although not all counter trend RN's reversals are created equally.

With USDJPY 103.00 we had a good swing level (false break) and it was a fresh untested RN. These ones really probably deserve the 20/25 pips of space.

It was a similar setup as USDCAD 1.27 yesterday which only needed 10 pips.
  • #10,490
  • Dec 17, 2020 10:31am Dec 17, 2020 10:31am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes, I think 20-25 pips on majors is about right. In a lot of cases it's zero pips DD. Although not all counter trend RN's reversals are created equally. With USDJPY 103.00 we had a good swing level (false break) and it was a fresh untested RN. These ones really probably deserve the 20/25 pips of space. It was a similar setup as USDCAD 1.27 yesterday which only needed 10 pips.
Yes, and as a note to newbies, when a position moves 10-15 pips against you should not add to it thinking you are getting a better price. Because if your level is good enough it should not move even 10-15 pips against you. When you add to a losing position, you are doubling down on a possible loser; therefore, messing up the whole RRR and your % return in the long run.
  • #10,491
  • Dec 17, 2020 10:56am Dec 17, 2020 10:56am
Quoting shahab8b
EURJPY, possible setups {image}
EURJPY, long trade. Possible setups.
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  • #10,492
  • Dec 17, 2020 11:18am Dec 17, 2020 11:18am
Quoting shahab8b
GU might be a buy the dips type of play. Let's see how it goes.
GU long scalp. This is what I meant by being nimble. Flip your position as soon as you know you are on the wrong side.
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  • #10,493
  • Dec 17, 2020 11:31am Dec 17, 2020 11:31am
Quoting shahab8b
EU, scalping short. I'll be looking to buy @ 1.22 if it goes there. {image}
Out of that trade. Didn't get a change to scalp long. Possible levels.
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  • #10,494
  • Edited 12:41pm Dec 17, 2020 11:48am | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU long scalp. This is what I meant by being nimble. Flip your position as soon as you know you are on the wrong side. {image}
I miss this type of scalping. It's one of those days you realise it's time to get low and sharp focus and can collect these nice pips.

Short 1.36250 again?

And long 1.36
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  • #10,495
  • Dec 17, 2020 12:32pm Dec 17, 2020 12:32pm
EurUsd and DXY are now testing the wall of their corresponding huge wedges. This is make it or break it time.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,496
  • Dec 17, 2020 12:37pm Dec 17, 2020 12:37pm
Add to the above the large wedge being tested now at the Nasdaq...
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,497
  • Dec 17, 2020 1:38pm Dec 17, 2020 1:38pm
Hi Guys,
congrats again for the great job you do here, finding the setups all day.

I was watching the movements on the Euro Futures before and after yesterday's FOMC. We see that there are strong sales (higher volumes), and then a slow but continuous climb with lower volume. This climb also continued during the Asian session, always at a low volume. As you know volume in Futures is more reliable than Forex because they are real contracts, that's wahy I look for it.
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So I looked at the changes on open interest, Euro Futures, over the last days:

Dec 14 -4.264
Dec 15 2.415
Dec 16 -105.466

From the COT report we know that non-commercials are very long, at the limit as happened in August/September. It happens when they are all long and it is a sign of a possible trend change very close.

Attached Image

From these information the theory comes to mind that most likely the longs have slowly begun to close their positions (but I have to wait until Dec 28 cot report to be sure about it).
In practice, the bullish trend is not over yet ... but it is close to its end

From an analysis on the Weekly we know that the 1.20 / 1.25 area is a historical support/resistance.
Years ago I started studying technical analysis with harmonic patterns, and I still see them everywhere
On the Weekly we have a perfect shark ending in zone 1.2350. The confluence is reinforced by the 2:1 ratio with the March swing that forms the shark.
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I also like to apply the Gann theory that I studied through Pesavento on the vibrations of the market. A market generally has its own historical swing that tends to repeat on the market. The one on the Euro is around 750 pips (orange trendlines). The "target trendline" (the blue at the top), and the small red channel of the last swing also cross in the area.
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I look forward to seeing the behavior of the market in the zone, waiting for possible news regarding the Brexit deal tomorrow or on Monday
  • #10,498
  • Dec 17, 2020 1:47pm Dec 17, 2020 1:47pm
Quoting Vincent1
Hi Guys, congrats again for the great job you do here, finding the setups all day. I was watching the movements on the Euro Futures before and after yesterday's FOMC. We see that there are strong sales (higher volumes), and then a slow but continuous climb with lower volume. This climb also continued during the Asian session, always at a low volume. As you know volume in Futures is more reliable than Forex because they are real contracts, that's wahy I look for it. {image} So I looked at the changes on open interest, Euro Futures, over the last...
Great work. Thank you for the information. It is very helpful.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,499
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:01pm Dec 17, 2020 2:01pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I miss this type of scalping. It's one of those days you realise it's time to get low and sharp focus and can collect these nice pips. Short 1.36250 again? And long 1.36 {image} {image}
I took you up on GU short @ 1.3625. It may be forming a double top on H1 (I don't count on it though considering how bullish this pair has been). Levels to watch for a possible long.
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  • #10,500
  • Dec 17, 2020 2:02pm Dec 17, 2020 2:02pm
Quoting Alorente
EurUsd and DXY are now testing the wall of their corresponding huge wedges. This is make it or break it time. {image} {image}
Thanks for the charts Al. Are you short EU?
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