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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,461
  • Dec 17, 2020 6:10am Dec 17, 2020 6:10am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Well, I have my levels on my chart. You can use them next time, haha.
i will boss
Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,462
  • Dec 17, 2020 6:10am Dec 17, 2020 6:10am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The bearish USD trend is very strong atm. AU breezed through 0.76. I will keep any eye on 0.7650. {image}
i'm out +2,
it feel like mining gold, no volume either.
think yesterday market wasted all the ammo for the rest of the week

i will try to buy deeps if we get some in all majors/usd
  • #10,463
  • Dec 17, 2020 6:11am Dec 17, 2020 6:11am
Quoting Roszey
Weekly volume still calling for buyers maybe we will see for sellers for sure {image}
On the monthly chart, I'm looking at that zone. But the range is very wide (1.3750-1.42).
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  • #10,464
  • Dec 17, 2020 6:14am Dec 17, 2020 6:14am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} On the monthly chart, I'm looking at that zone. But the range is very wide (1.3750-1.42). {image}
yeah true.. its also a fresh SW zone.
Le$$ I$ More
  • #10,465
  • Dec 17, 2020 6:18am Dec 17, 2020 6:18am
EURUSD, the trend is bullish above 1.2125/1.22. levels to watch are 1.2250/75 and 1.23 (on the upside) and 1.22 and 1.2175 (on the downside).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,466
  • Dec 17, 2020 6:31am Dec 17, 2020 6:31am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, monthly chart, possible trend change? {image} {image}
GBPUSD, monthly chart. The progression of that saucer pattern I pointed out before.
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  • #10,467
  • Dec 17, 2020 6:41am Dec 17, 2020 6:41am
USDJPY, short trade taken after yesterday bearish D1. Possible setup @ 103.
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  • #10,468
  • Dec 17, 2020 6:49am Dec 17, 2020 6:49am
AUDJPY, weekly chart.
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  • #10,469
  • Dec 17, 2020 7:03am Dec 17, 2020 7:03am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD is going to 1.22-1.24 {image}
EURUSD, the move to 1.22-1.24 was expected. But the path from here remains unclear. It may correct lower after getting rejected somewhere in that zone or just breeze through it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,470
  • Dec 17, 2020 7:17am Dec 17, 2020 7:17am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, short trade taken after yesterday bearish D1. Possible setup @ 103. {image}
Nicely done. 103 looks well placed.

USDCAD - Still sat right on 1.27 but not much signs of life. Hit my BE overnight. Reloaded on this but PA totally flatlined

I am not sure now where the low is on USDX.. 90 is removed but it's now sat right on W1 demand.
  • #10,471
  • Dec 17, 2020 7:26am Dec 17, 2020 7:26am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Usually in DEC we see nonsense one way moves without respecting S/R levels. Just a heads-up if these levels perform poorly next month. Then we need to switch to different techniques.
....

Quoting C-12
{quote} Nicely done. 103 looks well placed. USDCAD - Still sat right on 1.27 but not much signs of life. Hit my BE overnight. Reloaded on this but PA totally flatlined I am not sure now where the low is on USDX.. 90 is removed but it's now sat right on W1 demand.
Yes, they are selling the USD like there is no tomorrow. In December, the momentum based strategies work best. I expect more S/R level based trades failure, unless they are done in the direction of the trend.
  • #10,472
  • Dec 17, 2020 7:34am Dec 17, 2020 7:34am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Nicely done. 103 looks well placed. USDCAD - Still sat right on 1.27 but not much signs of life. Hit my BE overnight. Reloaded on this but PA totally flatlined I am not sure now where the low is on USDX.. 90 is removed but it's now sat right on W1 demand.
Citi opened a long EU trade on Monday targeting +1.25 by the end of the year. They weren't kidding.
  • #10,473
  • Dec 17, 2020 7:41am Dec 17, 2020 7:41am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} .... {quote} Yes, they are selling the USD like there is no tomorrow. In December, the momentum based strategies work best. I expect more S/R level based trades failure, unless they are done in the direction of the trend.
Yes, you were right on that one. I can't really complain this has been a good week again, but performance tapered off and could have been better.

I have plans in the pipeline about being far more mechanical with exits on counter and trend based setups. Too many times cut trend trades early and allowed counter positions hit BE when 50/75 pips were on offer off a zero DD entry.

As for these trends, these are well established with no clear reversal signs. Let's look for some nice pullback levels.
  • #10,474
  • Dec 17, 2020 7:54am Dec 17, 2020 7:54am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes, you were right on that one. I can't really complain this has been a good week again, but performance tapered off and could have been better. I have plans in the pipeline about being far more mechanical with exits on counter and trend based setups. Too many times cut trend trades early and allowed counter positions hit BE when 50/75 pips were on offer off a zero DD entry. As for these trends, these are well established with no clear reversal signs. Let's look for some nice pullback levels.
I agree. I did the same mistake yesterday. I didn't close my EU short fast enough. I wanted more than +70 pips thinking we caught a reversal. Which was obviously wrong. I think scalping counter trend at the right level with the right pa can still work. But we need to be nimble. And trading in the direction of the trend is definitely preferred.
  • #10,475
  • Dec 17, 2020 8:03am Dec 17, 2020 8:03am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I agree. I did the same mistake yesterday. I didn't close my EU short fast enough. I wanted more than +70 pips thinking we caught a reversal. Which was obviously wrong. I think scalping counter trend at the right level with the right pa can still work. But we need to be nimble. And Trading in the direction of the trend is definitively preferred.
I actually put 50 pips TP down for counter RN setups, which still makes them a very viable setup. Often only needing 10-15 pip SL (that's a regular 4 or 5R trade).

For trend trades I put down 100/200 pips (50%) and run the rest at BE.

Perhaps for trend trades we don't even need a TP. Let the trend decide the exit, and we can keep adding to these positions.
  • #10,476
  • Dec 17, 2020 8:28am Dec 17, 2020 8:28am
this morning, when i woke up.. all my trade gone.. hit my be..
fuh.. another try.. selling GJ.. BE lock..
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  • #10,477
  • Dec 17, 2020 8:30am Dec 17, 2020 8:30am
Gold is bullish above 1825. I loaded up GLD on the dips as a long term play.
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  • #10,478
  • Dec 17, 2020 8:42am Dec 17, 2020 8:42am
EURUSD
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  • #10,479
  • Dec 17, 2020 8:49am Dec 17, 2020 8:49am
my view for UJ sir, .. im waiting UJ at 102.812 if any, because last Resistance at mar 9 2020.
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  • #10,480
  • Dec 17, 2020 8:56am Dec 17, 2020 8:56am
Quoting meugampong
my view for UJ sir, .. im waiting UJ at 102.812 if any, because last Resistance at mar 9 2020. {image} {image}
My target is 101 based on this long term chart I have been posting here. But it may find S at your level. You know never know.
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