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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,421
  • Dec 16, 2020 10:46am Dec 16, 2020 10:46am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The main problem is that box. I don't think it will get through. {image}
That looks like our final hurdle. A break below should be a straight run down to 1.21.

I like that the 0.75RN has been so far taken out, but there's work to do. I think the safest option ahead of news is holding these shorts at BE.

That is a strong support line as well on the D1/H4. Tough call this one.
  • #10,422
  • Dec 16, 2020 11:12am Dec 16, 2020 11:12am
Quoting C-12
{quote} That looks like our final hurdle. A break below should be a straight run down to 1.21. I like that the 0.75RN has been so far taken out, but there's work to do. I think the safest option ahead of news is holding these shorts at BE. That is a strong support line as well on the D1/H4. Tough call this one.
I agree. I prefer staying short. But there is a good chance we have to switch to long again. Let's see how it plays out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,423
  • Dec 16, 2020 11:23am Dec 16, 2020 11:23am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I agree. I prefer staying short. But there is a good chance we have to switch to long again. Let's see how it plays out. {image}
Definitely a solid area here to watch for.

One of the reasons I've turned mildly bearish at 1.22 is this MN supply. it's a wide zone but 1.22 is the first RN that's been hit inside it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,424
  • Dec 16, 2020 11:43am Dec 16, 2020 11:43am
GBPUSD dropped from 1.3550 like a sack of king edward potatoes.

TP's set below now don't seem that unreasonable on current PA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,425
  • Dec 16, 2020 11:50am Dec 16, 2020 11:50am
Quoting C-12
GBPUSD dropped from 1.3550 like a sack of king edward potatoes. TP's set below now don't seem that unreasonable on current PA. {image}
Yes, GBPUSD provided a great trade. The next levels are 1.3450 and 1.34.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,426
  • Dec 16, 2020 11:54am Dec 16, 2020 11:54am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Definitely a solid area here to watch for. One of the reasons I've turned mildly bearish at 1.22 is this MN supply. it's a wide zone but 1.22 is the first RN that's been hit inside it. {image}
I see what you mean. I also had 1.22-1.24 on my weekly chart.

I'm looking at the majors, and UCHF, UJ , UCAD, and possibly NU show sign of reversal on D1, that is if they close like this. I guess it may be happening after all. We need a massive drop on EU though.
  • #10,427
  • Dec 16, 2020 12:01pm Dec 16, 2020 12:01pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I see what you mean. I also had 1.22-1.24 on my weekly chart. I'm looking at the majors, and UCHF, UJ , UCAD, and possibly NU show sign of reversal on D1, that is if they close like this. I guess it may be happening after all. We need a massive drop on EU though.
Yes, there's a few other pieces of evidence also with the DXY landing right on 90 level. It didn't quite touch it.

Evidence against the USD bull: AUDUSD - Didn't hit 0.76 (sell PA not that interesting so far.

FOMC might clear things up, although with locked 0.25% rates, it's not like the FOMC days of old.
  • #10,428
  • Dec 16, 2020 12:04pm Dec 16, 2020 12:04pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes, there's a few other pieces of evidence also with the DXY landing right on 90 level. It didn't quite touch it. Evidence against the USD bull: AUDUSD - Didn't hit 0.76 (sell PA not that interesting so far. FOMC might clear things up, although with locked 0.25% rates, it's not like the FOMC days of old.
That's true.

GU D1 looks good too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,429
  • Dec 16, 2020 12:10pm Dec 16, 2020 12:10pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF, long trade. levels to watch. Let's see if it can break above that TL and clear 0.89. This pair has disappointed on several occasions recently. It can technically turn south again from here. {image}
USDCHF has the best D1 candle. That's what you wanna see for a reversal. Let's see if it closes like this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,430
  • Dec 16, 2020 12:36pm Dec 16, 2020 12:36pm
NZDUSD, we have shorted 0.71 far too many times. Let's see if we can squeeze more than 30-40 pips out of this trade.
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  • #10,431
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:17pm Dec 16, 2020 1:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I see what you mean. I also had 1.22-1.24 on my weekly chart. I'm looking at the majors, and UCHF, UJ , UCAD, and possibly NU show sign of reversal on D1, that is if they close like this. I guess it may be happening after all. We need a massive drop on EU though.
USDJPY, long trade.
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  • #10,432
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:20pm Dec 16, 2020 1:20pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I agree. I prefer staying short. But there is a good chance we have to switch to long again. Let's see how it plays out. {image}
Looks like we made the right choice holding onto this short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,433
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:20pm Dec 16, 2020 1:20pm
It's happening. A beautiful bearish D1 candle on EU.
  • #10,434
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:21pm Dec 16, 2020 1:21pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Looks like we made the right choice holding onto this short. {image}
I'm adjusting my tp targets, haha. We have positioned ourselves very well for this move.
  • #10,435
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:30pm Dec 16, 2020 1:30pm
EURUSD, short trade update. I like the D1 candle. There are S @ 1.2125, 1.21, and 1.2050/60. A close below 1.2050/60 will form a double top.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,436
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:32pm Dec 16, 2020 1:32pm
GJ, slowly but sure..
good night everyone
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  • #10,437
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:39pm Dec 16, 2020 1:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD long 1.27 is looking better now. Levels to watch. {image}
USDCAD, long trade update. Let's see if it can clear 1.2775
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,438
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:41pm Dec 16, 2020 1:41pm
I'll be mad if the USD rolls over again, haha.
  • #10,439
  • Dec 16, 2020 1:45pm Dec 16, 2020 1:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
I'll be mad if the USD rolls over again, haha.
Yup. This is why I am reluctant to get overly excited about catching a nice swing. We've been here before a few times over the last month and damn thing falls over.

This does look like the most promising so far, but I think we still need to take our usual partials to avoid disappointment.
  • #10,440
  • Dec 16, 2020 2:05pm Dec 16, 2020 2:05pm
Quoting shahab8b
EU, intraday scalping levels {image}
You see what level EU reversed off?
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