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  • #122,141
  • Dec 16, 2020 7:41am Dec 16, 2020 7:41am
Quoting nic9man
Not sure why it goes down, these numbers should support a bull flag breakout to the upside. We had strong Eurozone PMIs this morning and weak US retail sales now, this should definitely weaken the USD, in the current situation a safe haven move would not make much sense.
Don't you get it? The previous bull run up to 1.2212 area WAS the foreplay and pricing in of these numbers..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #122,142
  • Dec 16, 2020 7:43am Dec 16, 2020 7:43am
I will wait reaction around 1.2166-77
Don't mind me.. i'm crazy
  • #122,143
  • Dec 16, 2020 7:50am Dec 16, 2020 7:50am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Don't you get it? The previous bull run up to 1.2212 area WAS the foreplay and pricing in of these numbers.. Stay Green
Sure I know the principle of buy the rumour sell the fact. However, I think this was still a negative surprise. The morning spike was due to the Eurozone numbers. Sure the general bull-run of the last weeks was due to US weakness and the expected resulting monetary financing, but getting confirmed such weak retail sales should still weaken the USD more as it gives more confidence in a dovish FED tonight. Maybe the market wants to see the PMI first, but I think it will break to the upside now.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #122,144
  • Dec 16, 2020 7:53am Dec 16, 2020 7:53am
Quoting LucasT
Do you guys have a fix percentage or pips to hunt or go with the flow?
I take +10 or +20 depending on the setup, sometimes I take half of at +10 and let the rest running hoping it gets to my +20
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #122,145
  • Dec 16, 2020 7:56am Dec 16, 2020 7:56am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} Sure I know the principle of buy the rumour sell the fact. However, I think this was still a negative surprise. The morning spike was due to the Eurozone numbers. Sure the general bull-run of the last weeks was due to US weakness and the expected resulting monetary financing, but getting confirmed such weak retail sales should still weaken the USD more as it gives more confidence in a dovish FED tonight. Maybe the market wants to see the PMI first, but I think it will break to the upside now.
Thanks for the input.. All well..and I think overall stimulus is positive in the Euro zone for now so I stay bullish as long as H1 candles are above 1.2165 roughly.. Continuation may take time and I don't mind it..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #122,146
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:02am Dec 16, 2020 8:02am
Red data may not lead to further weakness in dollar, bad retail sales data can make equities to correct to the downside, and hence currency like EU may go down too, until FOMC
  • #122,147
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:06am Dec 16, 2020 8:06am
Quoting dele5000
Red data may not lead to further weakness in dollar, bad retail sales data can make equities to correct to the downside, and hence currency like EU may go down too, until FOMC
That would be the safe haven move I was referring to as unlikely or short lived. Because when it is all about fiscal and monetary stimulus then bad news are good news, as they lead to more stimulus unless they are very very bad, which is not the case here. In particular we did not have globally bad news, but only for the US. Let's see..
Another day, another dollar.
  • #122,148
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:12am Dec 16, 2020 8:12am
Took profits at 12184 now gone north
Insane in the Brain..
  • #122,149
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:15am Dec 16, 2020 8:15am
Banks and such already price in what they know the news will be. I never care at news release time WHAT the news is because with regular internet speed, I know MANY seconds later and the move has already happened (or at least the best price entry has already happened). Retail traders are most often 50/50 buy or sell at any price, and for any news because they all think they know how to interpret the news and how the market will move. I watch the reaction, and I trade by the charts, in my own belief that I also know what the market will do. I just understand I really have no clue, but I guess well often enough.
  • #122,150
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:25am Dec 16, 2020 8:25am
LONG Order active. SL - M15 close below 1.2150 or H1 close below 1.2158 TP 1.2245
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd M15.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd M15 2.png Size: 68 KB
  • #122,151
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:27am Dec 16, 2020 8:27am
If price doesn't pop up (latest) within the first 5 minutes after opening of next H1 candle I would expect a deeper drop and stay away (i.e. get rid) from longs.. (32 more minutes)

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #122,152
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:30am Dec 16, 2020 8:30am
Like a said earlier, it's OK if it retraces down to the RET. zone as long as it does NOT close below 1.2158 on H1.
Attached Image
  • #122,153
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:33am Dec 16, 2020 8:33am
Just an UPDATE on D1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd Daily.png Size: 46 KB
  • #122,154
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:37am Dec 16, 2020 8:37am
dxy almost bearflagging signal but don't like this coming into new figures ... I'll let this pass.
MTF PA with indicators = a winning team
  • #122,155
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:40am Dec 16, 2020 8:40am
Here is the breakout, not sure what took so long. Guess the brokers have a system to trick other algos causing such a delayed pattern or so, I don't know. But now we will get the PMI shortly.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #122,156
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:41am Dec 16, 2020 8:41am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
H1 Status Update For my followers: IF price goes back to 1.2180 look for buy opportunities.. *If bull trend continues next target would be 1.2236 area.. Stay Green {image}
Congrats to those who listened to my advice from 3 hours ago.. Sorry for the 8 ticks drawdown.. I am doing my best to improve

*Marking 1.2191 as nearest support on H1

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-H1-Status-Update.png Size: 31 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #122,157
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:50am Dec 16, 2020 8:50am
Quoting andvk74
Like a said earlier, it's OK if it retraces down to the RET. zone as long as it does NOT close below 1.2158 on H1. {image}
Your analysis is amazing mate, I just thought that you're one of MM..lol..
  • #122,158
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:50am Dec 16, 2020 8:50am
USD meeting actual is greater than forecast, better to get out of your longs.
Good things comes in pairs...
  • #122,159
  • Dec 16, 2020 8:53am Dec 16, 2020 8:53am
H1 hammer.. 7 mins
  • #122,160
  • Dec 16, 2020 9:01am Dec 16, 2020 9:01am
Coming back to retest 1.21815 ..another BUY ZONE

Or going back to 1.216???
Watchout for 8pm FOMC
Good things comes in pairs...
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