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  • #361
  • Dec 13, 2020 2:52pm Dec 13, 2020 2:52pm
The latest "deadline" for a consent was today, Sunday. But it looks like that we will see yet another extension and further talks: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...of-brexit-deal
  • #362
  • Dec 14, 2020 8:39pm Dec 14, 2020 8:39pm
Fundamental Analysis is a broad term that describes the act of trading based purely on global aspects that influence supply and demand of currencies, commodities, and equities.
  • #363
  • Dec 15, 2020 3:25am Dec 15, 2020 3:25am
Nothing new so far from the Brexit front. Talks still continue. Some minimal progress was reported, a "narrow path" to a deal is visible. Fishery and LPF still unresolved.
  • #364
  • Dec 16, 2020 9:58am Dec 16, 2020 9:58am
Current state of the the Brexit negotiation:

16:49 Dec 16 (GMT+1)

On Brexit: both sides have a way to go, on the level playing field/state aid there is a landing zone in sight. On fisheries, both sides say that is "very difficult", RTE's Connelly.

  1. "looks as if all the energy is going into the LPF and once cracked, they'll barrel into the fisheries stuff"
  2. "On fisheries, both sides are stuck at their opening positions: roughly speaking, the EU is offering up to 18pc of the €650m worth of shared stocks caught in UK waters; the UK is seeking 80pc."
  3. "EU mood has been soured by a UK paper tabled Dec 6 with a raft of demands on ownership of UK-flagged boats"; "some suggestion that the fish element might have to wait until the new year, but this is unlikely to fly"
  4. "In parallel, there are simmering tensions in the European Parliament over being asked to ratify a treaty it hasn't had time to scrutinise."

If a deal gets over the line this weekend (and that's now what people are speculating about) then the EU institutions will probably try to squeeze out as much activity in the coming days in time for a plenary consent vote by the EP on Dec 28; all depends on fish (and also the final elements of an LPF deal) and what the Conference of Presidents in the EP is minded to do tomorrow morning.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/sta...36089802928128

  • #365
  • Dec 16, 2020 11:35am Dec 16, 2020 11:35am
Quote
18:33 Dec 16 (GMT+1)
Brussels says UK side is going "so slowly" in the trade deal negotiations, but it isn't clear whether it is dragging its feet deliberately, or just being careful.

I also can't get rid off the feeling that BoJo doesn't really want a trade deal and secretly desires a "no-deal".
  • #366
  • Edited 3:18am Dec 18, 2020 2:44am | Edited 3:18am
Brexit mood souring again since yesterday's evening call between BoJo and UvdL, followed by additional downbeat comments from the UK side.

Quote
20:34 Dec 17 (GMT+1)
European Commission President von der Leyen says the two welcomed substantial progress on many issues, but bridging them will be very challenging, big differences remain to be bridged, particularly on fisheries, talks will continue tomorrow.
Analysis 20:38 (GMT+1)
- Follows a call with UK PM Johnson.
- The call was not expected to be a breakthrough, rather just an update of how talks are going.
- The statement is very in fitting with reports throughout the day.

Quote
20:51 Dec 17 (GMT+1)
UK says EU's position in fishing was simply not reasonable and if there was to be an agreement it needed to shift significantly, time is short and it looked very likely an agreement would not be reached unless the EU changed its position substantially.
- PM Johnson underlined that the negotiations were now in a serious position
- Leaders agreed to remain in close contact
https://twitter.com/STVKathryn/statu...60464679206916
Reaction at 20:56 (GMT+1)
- Downside was seen in GBPUSD on the back of the UK's release, falling from 1.3605...

I went short GBP when the first news was on the Squawk.

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New (EU's) deadline is yet again next sunday.

Quote
09:06 Dec 18 (GMT+1)
EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier says the possibility of a deal is there but the path for this is very narrow; makes clear that time is now very short.
- On fisheries, we respect UK sovereignty
- Personally, does not think it would be fair/acceptable for there not to be a transitory access period for EU fisherman in UK waters; Brussels must have the sovereign right to react
- Everyone needs to move to find a fisheries compromise, the last hours to find an acceptable compromise on this
- Cannot say if there will be a deal,...

What to expect from today?

1) As all (maybe except BoJo and Gove) participants are still hopeful to reach an agreement and have a "narrow path" in sight, the market participants might use the pullback to add to their GBP long positions.

2) Uncertainity could lead to a stagnation in price action, having GBP range bound.

3) Uncertainity could win the upper hand and GBP longs are being liquidated ahead of the weekend ("TP friday") thus further pressuring GBP.

This depends of course also on whether there are new positive or negative Brexit comments on the wires.
  • #367
  • Mar 20, 2021 9:13pm Mar 20, 2021 9:13pm
Quoting shrim
subscribed
Just wanted one of your posts to reply with chart

Macd is momentum indicator giving market sentiment

Ema 12 9 is trend indicator

Bollinger 26 is volatility indicator

I used macd 12 26 9 on chart as Ema and bb to understand macd sentiment better

Now tell me what you understood
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  • #368
  • Mar 20, 2021 9:16pm Mar 20, 2021 9:16pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} Just wanted one of your posts to reply with chart Macd is momentum indicator giving market sentiment Ema 12 9 is trend indicator Bollinger 26 is volatility indicator I used macd 12 26 9 on chart as Ema and bb to understand macd sentiment better Now tell me what you understood {image}
Never use indicators of same type together
  • #369
  • Last Post: Mar 20, 2021 9:20pm Mar 20, 2021 9:20pm
Using same for cable , market sentiment is bullish

But it is nearing a limit and a good fundamental reason can change trends
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