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Price action at the core = family members' discussion project

  • #401
  • Dec 10, 2020 5:38am Dec 10, 2020 5:38am
Quoting PeterCaleb
From my experience, the simplest things are usually the best. You can study wave cycles. And you can study Elliot Waves, And you can then review George's learning material. And you will find that there is a correlation between ebb and flow tidal patterns with these same waves and cycles. Although most people never seem to notice and fully appreciate the connection. I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel so if you are in the process of going through all of this material, here's a few pics to help. {image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}
Hi Peter

Thanks for posting still.

In regards to your chart with the entry arrows, If I were trading this then I would of likely tried to enter in some other areas as well, probably unsuccessfully, Do you consider the time of day when you are entering or considering at these locations?

I keep thinking about your analogy of trading and chess also, is there anything you can comment on in regards to the performance of the previous session in relation to a pair and into the next session?

thanks
Mike

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  • #402
  • Dec 10, 2020 5:51am Dec 10, 2020 5:51am
Peter I was watching the pound now and where it is, but thinking going into NY better to wait and see what happens but it does appear to be somewhere of interest.

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  • #403
  • Dec 10, 2020 8:20pm Dec 10, 2020 8:20pm
Quoting asset21
{quote} Hi Peter Thanks for posting still. In regards to your chart with the entry arrows, If I were trading this then I would of likely tried to enter in some other areas as well, probably unsuccessfully, Do you consider the time of day when you are entering or considering at these locations? I keep thinking about your analogy of trading and chess also, is there anything you can comment on in regards to the performance of the previous session in relation to a pair and into the next session? thanks Mike {image}


Mike,

The arrows CAN be used as entry pointers I suppose but I was doing that to show the wave characteristic of that market through that lens. As I have mentioned before, it's the nuances of your market of choice that will help you determine the range of its move from a bounce or reversal etc and the wave concept needs to be carefully approached, because remember, it's very easy to get cocky and overconfident about what you think you know about these markets. People who have never properly played chess, do not understand that it is a combination of tactics AND strategy. So to relate this to trading .... Direction, "expected trade setup", where COULD the limit cluster and stops be sitting and drifting through eg. participants using trailing stop function based on ATR etc. all play a part of an approach.

RickM shared a pic somewhere else that could be helpful here, let me get it ....

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There we go. (Sorry Rick, I couldn't be bothered drawing up my own in the short time I have and yours shows what I need.) So you can see there are definitely "impulsive" breaks up and down that end up failing to change the larger "direction" of it. The waves are a combination of past decisions as well as near future decisions, so theoretically, if you want, you COULD either use a very small order size with a live account to place an order around the peak and trough of each failed break (the next time it happens of course), OR, gain access (As RickM and others do) to market order sentiment and distribution. Either way, a trader needs a good feel for a live situation here, to be able to experience AND observe the market in real time when these scenarios are playing out. Otherwise it's just hypothetical. And that doesn't help anyone. This also goes to your query around sessions. Sessions are like children - some days they just piss you off with their unwavering nothingness then suddenly BAAM ! It's all on !! Other times it's all hands on deck because there's a lot of interest in that market or grouping, so you need a way to gauge and track what it wants. I'm sure there are lots of ways to track sessions and days. For me, I consider it all as a river through time. There are places where the fishing is great and other places where it is not. You need to decide how you view it and what it does that you like. I have found THIS is paramount because that rabbit hole is very deep and if you want proof that it drives people crazy, just look through this site and the stuff people are into. If I had a dollar for every time I've come across someone who fell too deep into a topic about trading and money.

So I hope that helps to respond to your questions. Just think of it as learning to fish. When I started we had to draw it by hand so we would pretend that people were using trailing stops and map the course of where they would trail a stop loss as the trade moved in their favor. Of course now there would be an indicator to do this for you on the chart. Keeping that handy COULD be a reasonable alternative in learning to understand trading. One perspective that could also help that is a little strange I admit BUT it is VERY effective to train your brain --> Approach the market you trade from the point of view OF the STOP LOSS. Look at the whole thing through its eyes. As I said, strange, BUT, each stop loss has a life of its own in all this. Regardless of if stop hunts exist, or if liquidity runs happen and despite popular belief, certainty is a BIIIIG word to use in the field of trading. So every perspective helps gauge the behavior and course of each session and day and week.

Anyway hope that helps.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #404
  • Dec 10, 2020 8:29pm Dec 10, 2020 8:29pm
Quoting asset21
Peter I was watching the pound now and where it is, but thinking going into NY better to wait and see what happens but it does appear to be somewhere of interest. {image}


Sorry I got to this one too late for you, but I will respond anyway .....

You can use that pic you shared above along with an after shot of what eventuated. Instead of me just telling you, think about what options are available to the market in that situation. What are the dimensions of its reach and strengths? It's good really, that you use a clean chart, there's no biases that would interfere with your observation. Up down left right. Time. Pace. Now you finish the list OK.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #405
  • Dec 10, 2020 8:37pm Dec 10, 2020 8:37pm
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all in profit, I marked all my entries
  • #406
  • Dec 10, 2020 11:21pm Dec 10, 2020 11:21pm
Quoting failinforex
{image}all in profit, I marked all my entries
Great !! Keep it up !!
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #407
  • Dec 11, 2020 12:07am Dec 11, 2020 12:07am
Market Activity is an interesting area to go into. An I know that people these days LOVE to make things complex and full of information. But does that REALLY make them better traders?

There are all sorts of neat toys and tools aren't there?

I remember a guy I traded with years ago when I got started. He said "Peter, if you can count and you can think, then you can use your eyes to see what's happening."

And after all these years, he's still right.
Got a joke - How many candles does it take to make a move down? None, it takes money !! Hahahaha. Hmmmmm. OK here's the 1HR view.
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And here's the 15MIN view.

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And the 5MIN view.

I know it sounds a little silly but - for each TF, can you count the total number of periods that move down used and then work out the % you would assign for each one that totals 100%. Eg. - 10 periods so 10% each period. And now see how many periods were against the total move? And subtract that total in % from your total % of the whole move. Eg. - 100% minus 20% (2 periods) = 80%. Doing this gives you a footprint. You can also do it with prices but I find percentages quicker and just as effective.

So now couple this with structure off previous highs/lows. Add in the zone for the HTF wicks/spikes and overall momentum and you have a plan.

Interesting right?

OK hope that helps.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #408
  • Dec 11, 2020 3:01am Dec 11, 2020 3:01am
Quoting failinforex
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all in profit, I marked all my entries
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closed
  • #409
  • Dec 11, 2020 4:10am Dec 11, 2020 4:10am
ouch... very nice !
  • #410
  • Dec 12, 2020 4:47am Dec 12, 2020 4:47am
Quoting PeterCaleb
Market Activity is an interesting area to go into. An I know that people these days LOVE to make things complex and full of information. But does that REALLY make them better traders? There are all sorts of neat toys and tools aren't there? I remember a guy I traded with years ago when I got started. He said "Peter, if you can count and you can think, then you can use your eyes to see what's happening." And after all these years, he's still right. Got a joke - How many candles does it take to make a move down? None, it takes money !! Hahahaha. Hmmmmm....
thank you so much for sharing peter,

Can u perhaps explain more..sorry for my poor understanding..
  • #411
  • Dec 12, 2020 7:55am Dec 12, 2020 7:55am
Quoting erann
{quote} thank you so much for sharing peter, Can u perhaps explain more..sorry for my poor understanding..


erann,

On the H1 and M15 pics you can see the sell off that "strangely" has ALL red periods. Seeing as each period is merely the end result of that length of time worth of trading, each printed candlestick has the sum total of predominant downward movement. So you have to ask why this is happening? Was there news out? Where did it begin? Where did it end up? The calculations using percentages is just a simple indication for strength of the rate of change. 5 periods out of 7 being the same end of period "color" can indicate intentions and can point to an end point. And seeing as 7 into 100 goes 14 and a bit times, 5 x 14 gives you a potential SR for outcome of 70%. It's not definite or "predicting" etc, I just use it as an indication. If want to apply this indication to your own trading, I suggest you practice with it first. I don't use a calculator I just do it in my head as the market moves along. It works well when you are anticipating something specific to happen - eg. breakthrough or reversal.

I hope that's helpful erann.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #412
  • Dec 12, 2020 8:45pm Dec 12, 2020 8:45pm
Quoting asset21
{quote} HI Peter Great posts, thanks for sharing. I am reading Al Brooks trilogy and there is great stuff I am starting to see on the charts, please post some more or maybe start a new thread regards Mike


While I was going over my own overview chart template I found myself reaching for my copy of a price action book by Al Brooks. And I remembered that you, asset21, had mentioned reading his books. As I thought it could help anyone who does not possess a digital copy of it, here it is below....

As usual, a clean DL link ....

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wAsuYBcnrdPPUTqZc4R6cdf3D_eujSUS/view?usp=sharing

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #413
  • Dec 12, 2020 9:06pm Dec 12, 2020 9:06pm
Speaking of overview templates. I went through the original thread from George and saw that many were struggling with the concepts of price over time and time over price that leads to the "wave cycles" concept. I also noticed that Price Psychology can be a rather difficult thing to map in a way that keeps it honest, truthful and accurate in a simple and consistent framework. I say this because it seemed that many had differing opinions as to HOW to navigate a machine like this. What I am about to share COULD be the correct settings, or not, for the tools you'll see on the chart. Why? I don't want to spoon feed anyone or make claims of a "perfect" approach to this. I just wish to convey ONE way to deal with it consistently. The following has pics AND a file for anyone interested in using it for their own study purposes. To be honest here, most people generally assume they know how to use an indicator. But upon deeper inspection and a little introspection, I sense you'll find it more helpful than you think. Remember as a private trader you're playing "read and play along" BUT that does not mean you have to be ignorant of everything all the time.

NB - Please understand I'm not trying to "push" or pollute this thread with indicator stuff, I simply wish to sincerely help people learn properly.

Hope it's helpful.

Peter

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File Type: ex4 MTF-donchian-channel.ex4   10 KB | 417 downloads
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #414
  • Dec 12, 2020 9:07pm Dec 12, 2020 9:07pm
And the dark red MA is ....

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Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #415
  • Dec 12, 2020 9:10pm Dec 12, 2020 9:10pm
And with that, you then apply your "older" lows and highs lines and you can learn to keep one eye on the past and the present for the future events.

See how you go with it.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #416
  • Dec 13, 2020 12:07am Dec 13, 2020 12:07am
Building a Donchian System
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look at it, observe carefully, study it by heart
  • #417
  • Dec 13, 2020 12:16am Dec 13, 2020 12:16am
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Enjoy!
  • #418
  • Dec 13, 2020 1:34am Dec 13, 2020 1:34am
Quoting PeterCaleb
From my experience, the simplest things are usually the best. You can study wave cycles. And you can study Elliot Waves, And you can then review George's learning material. And you will find that there is a correlation between ebb and flow tidal patterns with these same waves and cycles. Although most people never seem to notice and fully appreciate the connection. I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel so if you are in the process of going through all of this material, here's a few pics to help. {image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}
Hi , PeterCaleb would you be kind enough and share the TMA indicator in the first image attached & the settings for it please
  • #419
  • Dec 13, 2020 1:36am Dec 13, 2020 1:36am
Quoting failinforex
{image}Enjoy!

This is really good Bro
  • #420
  • Dec 13, 2020 2:24am Dec 13, 2020 2:24am
Quoting HumbleLearne
{quote} Hi , PeterCaleb would you be kind enough and share the TMA indicator in the first image attached & the settings for it please


Hi HumbleLearne,

It's the same type as George's found at post 4 at

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/874421-price-action-at-the-core-tma-intra

The settings are up to you.

Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
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