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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #10,121
  • Dec 10, 2020 12:45pm Dec 10, 2020 12:45pm
NZDUSD, going for 0.71 again. I think it will break above it this time. But let's see the reaction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,122
  • Dec 10, 2020 12:48pm Dec 10, 2020 12:48pm
Scalping short AU, sl 10 pips
  • #10,123
  • Dec 10, 2020 12:53pm Dec 10, 2020 12:53pm
Quoting shahab8b
Scalping short AU, sl 10 pips
The chart for that scalp. a 5 pips sl is actually enough. This should be quick one way or another.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,124
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:14pm Dec 10, 2020 1:14pm
This has certainly been an usual ECB day. EURUSD really didn't do anything and the USD major pairs have been split off in all directions.

I can't help but look across the GBP crosses and wonder how I could have squeezed more out of those retracement moves yesterday.
  • #10,125
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:17pm Dec 10, 2020 1:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The chart for that scalp. a 5 pips sl is actually enough. This should be quick one way or another. {image}
I'll be quick to move my sl to b/e whenever I get a chance. AU is bullish in all TFs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,126
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:21pm Dec 10, 2020 1:21pm
Quoting C-12
This has certainly been an usual ECB day. EURUSD really didn't do anything and the USD major pairs have been split off in all directions. I can't help but look across the GBP crosses and wonder how I could have squeezed more out of those retracement moves yesterday.
I agree. I feel like I have been wasting my time figuring out the EU chart. I could have made +1000 pips on the GBP crosses instead.
  • #10,127
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:26pm Dec 10, 2020 1:26pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I agree. I feel like I have been wasting my time figuring out the EU chart. I could have made +1000 pips on the GBP crosses instead.
I know I was almost laughing to myself looking at those quality trend retracement moves yesterday and I'm sat trying to grind out 10 pips on EURUSD
  • #10,128
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:30pm Dec 10, 2020 1:30pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I know I was almost laughing to myself looking at those quality trend retracement moves yesterday and I'm sat trying to grind out 10 pips on EURUSD
Well, we did catch some of them (GCAD, GCHF, and GJPY). Did you miss out on GJ and GCHF?
  • #10,129
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:32pm Dec 10, 2020 1:32pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Well, we did catch some of them (GCAD, GCHF, and GJPY). Did you miss out on GJ and GCHF?
We sure did, my problem today was i was cutting those good trades early to pay for the small hits on EU/UCAD/NU and AU. Bit of a schoolboy error in the end.

Even after all these years market can still give a kick up the backside every now and again.
  • #10,130
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:36pm Dec 10, 2020 1:36pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The chart for that scalp. a 5 pips sl is actually enough. This should be quick one way or another. {image}
I closed the scalp.
  • #10,131
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:49pm Dec 10, 2020 1:49pm
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD, going for 0.71 again. I think it will break above it this time. But let's see the reaction. {image}
Look's awesome i agree
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 444.png Size: 35 KB
  • #10,132
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:58pm Dec 10, 2020 1:58pm
Quoting mizi123
{quote} Look's awesome i agree {image}
Someone asked me last night if that NU demand was good for a long and I said no... Turns out it worked out nicely.

That will likely be the last time they ask at least.
  • #10,133
  • Dec 10, 2020 2:05pm Dec 10, 2020 2:05pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Someone asked me last night if that NU demand was good for a long and I said no... Turns out it worked out nicely. That will likely be the last time they ask at least.
These was eye opening for me Cj thank you in case someone missed it:
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  • #10,134
  • Edited 2:21pm Dec 10, 2020 2:09pm | Edited 2:21pm
Quoting mizi123
{quote} These was eye opening for me Cj thank you in case someone missed it: {file}
Thanks, I need to revisit this and fix up some bits.

For most people, (especially the newer traders) the counter RN's are best to be avoided and stick to the quality retracement setups with heavy confluence.

Of course reversals work fine but I think people would be suited to get fully confident with trend pullbacks and retracements.

They would have made a killing on all those GBP cross setups this week. So many to choose from. Even pairs like AU, NU and AJ had great pullbacks last few days.

I know a few people who are hunting down RN's everywhere I need to reign that in a bit.
  • #10,135
  • Dec 10, 2020 2:28pm Dec 10, 2020 2:28pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes, I've noticed that. EU 1.2150 is looking better too. But the trend remains bullish above 1.2080/1.21. {image}
Loaded EU long targeting 1.22.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,136
  • Dec 10, 2020 2:31pm Dec 10, 2020 2:31pm
Quoting mizi123
{quote} Look's awesome i agree {image}
I don't like it for a short trade to be honest. I will wait for a better level.
  • #10,137
  • Dec 10, 2020 2:32pm Dec 10, 2020 2:32pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Loaded EU long targeting 1.22. {image}
Same, we got it in the end. Looks like at the path is is clear.
  • #10,138
  • Dec 10, 2020 2:36pm Dec 10, 2020 2:36pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} We sure did, my problem today was i was cutting those good trades early to pay for the small hits on EU/UCAD/NU and AU. Bit of a schoolboy error in the end. Even after all these years market can still give a kick up the backside every now and again.
I think you probably loaded too many counter trend all long USD trades today. I had the same problem, that's why I went short UCAD. Throwing some retracement trades and some crosses in the mix would balance it out.
  • #10,139
  • Dec 10, 2020 2:38pm Dec 10, 2020 2:38pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I think you probably loaded too many counter trend all long USD trades today. I had the same problem, that's why I went short UCAD. Throwing some retracement trades and some crosses in the mix would balance it out.
Oh no question at all and I knew it was the wrong thing to do at the time (that uneasy feeling you just know you're in an uphill battle). But these moves had already left the station, so I was left with nothing but counter setups.

This is where the discipline comes in to just sit on hands. That's not my speciality.

To be fair, it's not been that bad day in the end. Just not up to the high expectations set over the last few weeks.
  • #10,140
  • Dec 10, 2020 2:42pm Dec 10, 2020 2:42pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Same, we got it in the end. Looks like at the path is is clear.
I knew I was wrong being short EU based on the pa the moment the ECB policy decision came out. But for some reason I wanted to stay true to my analysis. I should have flipped right away.
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