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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #7,981
  • Dec 9, 2020 7:56am Dec 9, 2020 7:56am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 3451 is a composite profile poc. And I've no problem to stay with such a possible action upside. But, as always, take this market a piece at a time, step by step. Btw, if you are interested in our value area zone take a look at major data: 3340 is the top of last years value area. If eventually price will go significantly higher you should consider this action as an initiative yearly attempt upside (evading yearly major value area going to the higher yearly POC). If instead you'll see price rejected upside and significantly accepted below...
These levels are major ones for me
  • #7,982
  • Dec 9, 2020 10:17am Dec 9, 2020 10:17am
Quoting pipcenturion
I have 1.3450 as the untested value area to the upside. Sellers ought to be waiting there or slightly higher. Trade safe!
The sell might be halted around the current price (for today).

1.338X might have buyers try to take it up again.

The buy is risky in my opinion. I will not be part of it.

Trade safe everyone!
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  • #7,983
  • Dec 9, 2020 12:04pm Dec 9, 2020 12:04pm
Before GB close I wrote:

Quoting Lock
{quote} ....Note that now, for the same reason I waited for a GB open below 3387-33905 to place a long I do not want to carry forward a long above Pit double pass gap 3306-3420 before Pit open. So take care.
GB session remained in balance until PreUS open and started a liquidation, then Pit session opened at 3428 just above double pass gap 3306-3420 that it filled during the second period, then it continued the liquidation coming back inside yesterday Pit session range (below 3377 yesterday Pit high): as you see a double pass gap was one of the reasons to go higher and an other double pass gap has been the main reason to come back lower.

I was not present into the market after GB session so I did not participate to this but for those who were present it was clearly a good opportunity for a substantial short.

Now monitor for acceptation or rejection inside yesterday pit range (below 3377)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,984
  • Dec 9, 2020 12:09pm Dec 9, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting mrmeth
{quote} Please kindly explain, what exactly is a Pit Session???
US trading time: from 15:30 (Italy time) to 23:00
Even tough GB participants are still in until 18:00, Pit participants are generally predominant during these trading hours. Cable is probably a little more complex as GB participants are still very heavy even during Pit session.
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  • #7,985
  • Dec 9, 2020 12:41pm Dec 9, 2020 12:41pm
A way to evaluate your reasons while managing a position: any time you esc a short you are actually placing a long and when you esc a long you are actually placing a short. If you look at the market movements in such a way you will probably improve your performance.

Let's say you are managing a short position and you feel insecure about the possible auction continuation downside: actually if you close it you are affirming that there are good reasons to revert and go higher.

Obviously there are other reasons to close a position: too tired, dinner time, etc.. But: think about how many times, even during the early hours of a trading day, you esc a position only because you felt insecure, even though you had no reasons at all to imagine something serious in the opposite direction of your previous position..

Well, have a nice continuation. See you tomorrow
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  • #7,986
  • Dec 10, 2020 12:58am Dec 10, 2020 12:58am
Yesterday GB open ed above the previous GB inside session high 33675 creating a new gap upside: that gap 33675-3377 is still in place and if upcoming GB will open below it, that zone will become a double pass GB gap.

We have also to stress the fact that current price action is into GB inside session range (32975-33675): so the attempted rally above inside session performed yesterday by GB session can be considered failed. And for the balance rules, when you fail above balance, next reasonable target is the opposite side of that balance.

And the opposite side of that balance coincides with the top (32975) of the GB inside week from which the last 3 week attempted to evade upside.

So our 2 zone of interest for today GB session will necessary be: the gap zone at 33675-3377 and the top of the weekly balance 32975

Significant levels for GB are:
34295 GB 2019 high
3397 GB November high
33905 yesterday GB close
3382 GB December open
33675-3377 yesterday GB gap upside (possible new double gap)
*****
3338 GB November close
3319 old GB important ref
33035 GB last week low
32975 GB inside week high

REMEMBER ALWAYS that we balanced for a long time above MAJOR VALUE AREA TOP 3340: you saw an attempted initiative trade above it. If it will be confirmed as failed the possible target is the mean of this value area, meaning yearly POC 2935
If instead this attempted rally above value area top will eventually accepted by operators, the next possible target is the higher major value area top: and in this case we are speaking of a total shift of yearly value toward pre Brexit levels
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  • #7,987
  • Dec 10, 2020 1:11am Dec 10, 2020 1:11am
Quoting Lock
Yesterday GB open ed above the previous GB inside session high 33675 creating a new gap upside: that gap 33675-3377 is still in place and if upcoming GB will open below it, that zone will become a double pass GB gap. We have also to stress the fact that current price action is into GB inside session range (32975-33675): so the attempted rally above inside session performed yesterday by GB session can be considered failed. And for the balance rules, when you fail above balance, next reasonable target is the opposite side...

Well explained
  • #7,988
  • Dec 10, 2020 3:46am Dec 10, 2020 3:46am
32975 worked but... we will come back down to 32875 probably: during this GB session or eventually during next Pit sessions
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  • #7,989
  • Dec 10, 2020 3:47am Dec 10, 2020 3:47am
Quoting Lock
32975 worked but... we will come back down to 32875 probably: during this GB session or eventually during next Pit sessions

In fact 32875 is an extraordinary weak pit level. Take note and do not confusde it with 32975 that is a GB level
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  • #7,990
  • Dec 10, 2020 4:09am Dec 10, 2020 4:09am
If the new GB gap downside will not be quickly filled up to 3377 (the top also of the double gap), expect a new attempt downside toward 32975- 32875: be ready to esc longs if something will go wrong upside.
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  • #7,991
  • Dec 10, 2020 4:11am Dec 10, 2020 4:11am
our main ref here (for all sessions) is November close 3323
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  • #7,992
  • Dec 10, 2020 4:13am Dec 10, 2020 4:13am
Quoting Lock
our main ref here (for all sessions) is November close 3323
so monitor for acceptation or rejection above it to have a clue about a possible continuation to 3377 or a possible new test of 32975-32875 zone
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  • #7,993
  • Dec 10, 2020 4:17am Dec 10, 2020 4:17am
Quoting Lock
If the new GB gap downside will not be quickly filled up to 3377 (the top also of the double gap), expect a new attempt downside toward 32975- 32875: be ready to esc longs if something will go wrong upside.
Loaded and
  • #7,994
  • Dec 10, 2020 4:39am Dec 10, 2020 4:39am
Quoting Lock
our main ref here (for all sessions) is November close 3323
Quoting Lock
{quote} so monitor for acceptation or rejection above it to have a clue about a possible continuation to 3377 or a possible new test of 32975-32875 zone
clear rejection above 3223 and back downside for a new test of 32975 zone...

but now watch out as we are in a perfect balance environment...
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  • #7,995
  • Dec 10, 2020 4:46am Dec 10, 2020 4:46am
Consider current GB session range as a balance: balance rules apply form now on.
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  • #7,996
  • Edited 5:07am Dec 10, 2020 4:47am | Edited 5:07am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} clear rejection above 3223 and back downside for a new test of 32975 zone... but now watch out as we are in a perfect balance environment...
While the net volume for today is still to the sell side, I would have loved to see a retest of 1.3386 value area before a proper sell off can begin.

Buy trades are risky for now because of the net volume which is to the sell side for now.
  • #7,997
  • Dec 10, 2020 11:12am Dec 10, 2020 11:12am
32635, already very weak level, has been tagged also today by Pit session. It is now weaker then ever: take note.
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  • #7,998
  • Dec 10, 2020 11:14am Dec 10, 2020 11:14am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} While the net volume for today is still to the sell side, I would have loved to see a retest of 1.3386 value area before a proper sell off can begin. Buy trades are risky for now because of the net volume which is to the sell side for now.
me too: the problem is the new pit gap downside and the extreme weakness of current pit low...32635
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  • #7,999
  • Dec 10, 2020 11:42am Dec 10, 2020 11:42am
Note that the last 2 Pit periods are based upon Half back level 3292 and the entire pit session is based upon the extremely weak level 32635: carry forward these precious info if something will go wrong upside...
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  • #8,000
  • Dec 11, 2020 12:49am Dec 11, 2020 12:49am
Quoting Lock
Note that the last 2 Pit periods are based upon Half back level 3292 and the entire pit session is based upon the extremely weak level 32635: carry forward these precious info if something will go wrong upside...
And it took out 3292 and re-tagged 32635...

Now look at that 32635, please! It has been created by Pit session 11.20, it has been tagged by Pit session 11.23, then re-tagged by PreUS session 12.07 and finally re-tagged (twice!) by yesterday Pit session: so excluding other sessions actions below it, it is a clean re-touch for 5 times in a raw.

It is extraordinary weak and only a pit session can now seriously remove it (or if a Pit session will eventually open below it): so take note and carry forward this very precious info.

About GB session we have an other important situation to take care of: the price zone between 32975 (GB inside week high) and double pass gap 33675-3377: I think these levels will be crucial in the following GB sessions at least until it will be clear if the attempted rally above weekly inside balance has to be considered as a failure or a success.

That double pass gap will remain intact only if the attempted weekly rally will be considered by GB participants as dead. So with a clear and full acceptation below 32975. If not, that gap will be taken out for sure. So take note.

So important levels for GB are:

  1. GB December open 3282
  2. GB double pass gap 33675-3377
  3. GB November close 3338
  4. GB yesterday high 3325 (yesterday new gap downside low level)
  5. old GB important ref 3319
  6. 32975 (GB inside week high)
  7. 3291 yesterday GB close

Ubi maior minor cessat
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