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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,881
  • Dec 7, 2020 3:26pm Dec 7, 2020 3:26pm
Make or break time for EURUSD to see if it can finally deliver the goods on 1.22 ?

Either way, it is starting to look like the USD is getting close to a bullish turn.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 36 KB
  • #9,882
  • Dec 7, 2020 7:07pm Dec 7, 2020 7:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Same trade here! AU short 0.7450 {image}
AUDUSD, short trade update. Possible long setups on the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1 8675.png Size: 29 KB
  • #9,883
  • Dec 7, 2020 7:11pm Dec 7, 2020 7:11pm
Quoting shahab8b
If GU continues going higher I will short it again @ 1.34
GBPUSD, short trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 127rt.png Size: 29 KB
  • #9,884
  • Dec 7, 2020 7:15pm Dec 7, 2020 7:15pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I took a hit on EURGBP short 0.91. Now I'm watching 0.9150. Let's see if we get any reaction. {image}
EURGBP, short trade update. Possible long setup @ 0.90
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH4 1r27rt.png Size: 43 KB
  • #9,885
  • Dec 7, 2020 7:20pm Dec 7, 2020 7:20pm
EURUSD, got stopped out of the long trade. It's a little mixed atm. But I prefer the short side. Possible long and short setups on the chart. Also, if it goes higher possible short setup @ 1.22
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 127 8i.png Size: 32 KB
  • #9,886
  • Edited 7:47pm Dec 7, 2020 7:27pm | Edited 7:47pm
GBPUSD, I had a short bias today so I wasn't looking for a long trade. But GU offered a very clean confluence setup @ 1.33 for a long trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 127 urty.GIF Size: 77 KB
  • #9,887
  • Dec 7, 2020 7:34pm Dec 7, 2020 7:34pm
USDCHF, H4 RSI shows bullish divergence. A clear break above 0.8950 might indicate short term bottoming.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 127 ty.GIF Size: 118 KB
  • #9,888
  • Dec 7, 2020 7:42pm Dec 7, 2020 7:42pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} There was a good easy counter RN setup on GBCAD at 1.17000 with false break - I missed it. Needed around a 30 pips ish SL. I much prefer the short at 1.72. {image}
That why I suggested using a variable SL based on H1 ATR plus spread. Your TP can be adjusted accordingly.
  • #9,889
  • Dec 7, 2020 10:47pm Dec 7, 2020 10:47pm
ATM, bullish bias for KIWI
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_511.png Size: 32 KB
  • #9,890
  • Dec 7, 2020 11:14pm Dec 7, 2020 11:14pm
GBP/USD Possible long-short setup,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_512.png Size: 40 KB
  • #9,891
  • Dec 8, 2020 12:01am Dec 8, 2020 12:01am
AUD/USD Situation, bearish bias.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_513.png Size: 42 KB
  • #9,892
  • Dec 8, 2020 2:25am Dec 8, 2020 2:25am
NZDUSD Head and Shoulders forming. Neckline (Blue Line) at 0.7005. Projected target 0.6907 which is the 38.2 Fib retracement of the November up move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD,H4.png Size: 72 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,893
  • Dec 8, 2020 2:31am Dec 8, 2020 2:31am
Quoting meugampong
GBP/USD Possible long-short setup, {image}
long loaded,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_515.png Size: 38 KB
  • #9,894
  • Dec 8, 2020 3:10am Dec 8, 2020 3:10am
Quoting C-12
Make or break time for EURUSD to see if it can finally deliver the goods on 1.22 ? Either way, it is starting to look like the USD is getting close to a bullish turn. {image}
Anyone take this good confluence setup? Also had an FB form on arrival. Fully stacked. Let's see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 57 KB
  • #9,895
  • Dec 8, 2020 3:11am Dec 8, 2020 3:11am
Quoting shahab8b
If GU continues going higher I will short it again @ 1.34
Cheers, took you up on that.

Also long AU and NU on PA .. I'm not sure why either of those couldn't just get to the levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 54 KB
  • #9,896
  • Edited 5:29am Dec 8, 2020 3:23am | Edited 5:29am
AUDUSD - Wanted 0.74 @ 61.8 and turned a bit ahead of schedule.

Ok well that one died a swift death. It seems we have a grinder on our hands so far today...
Attached Image
  • #9,897
  • Dec 8, 2020 3:36am Dec 8, 2020 3:36am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That why I suggested using a variable SL based on H1 ATR plus spread. Your TP can be adjusted accordingly.
This was the part I wrestled with when writing that mechanical trading plan. In a lot of cases the RN levels have almost zero DD.

ATR based is much better but might be confusing for the newbies. I guess this part is something the user will have to play around with but fixed pip SL is definitely not optimal.
  • #9,898
  • Dec 8, 2020 6:04am Dec 8, 2020 6:04am
Quoting shahab8b
If GU continues going higher I will short it again @ 1.34
GBPUSD, short trade update. Possible long setup @ 1.33 and 1.32
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 128 iu.png Size: 33 KB
  • #9,899
  • Dec 8, 2020 6:12am Dec 8, 2020 6:12am
EURUSD, it looks like a triangle formation. It can break up or down, not clear atm. Possible long and short setups on the chart, plus short setup @ 1.22
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 128 tru.png Size: 34 KB
  • #9,900
  • Dec 8, 2020 6:19am Dec 8, 2020 6:19am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF has made a new low. But EU has not made a new high yet. So I think that's where EU is going. I'll be happy to be wrong on this one as I prefer shorting EU. If EU goes higher, the next level is 1.22 {image}
USDCHF, still holing short. There is bullish divergence on H4. But that doesn't mean the price has to reverse. A clear beak above that TL and R @ .8950 indicates a short term bottom. For now it's bearish and makes me thinking EU is likely to make a new high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH4 128 yu.png Size: 34 KB
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