Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2739 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #54,761
  • Edited 7:01pm Dec 6, 2020 6:50pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting billytt
{quote}{quote} NO NO NO, All trades are separate. I do not trade the small account against/with the main account. Avery, you may be just too smart to trade. I honestly think you will decide that Forex is not the way. Maths, stats, numbers is the way. (for me). Dont let a few fails get you down. Another clue. How many traders hold a losing position until they blow???? What if they kept a winning position instead????
Hey billy. I did not talk about holding to a losing position until getting wiped out. Regards maths, stats. I just gave an example of this.

I am not sure what you mean by keeping all trades separate. So you open one trading account for every new trade or what do you mean by this?

I just tried to understand the plan/logic behind fixing a failed/countered trade. If your main trade goes wrong and you counter / lock it in, such potential loss (even if unrealized at that point) does not vanish into thin air correct?

Having a few lost trades i agree is not the end of the world, however if like you say having a -Ģ2800 countered position compared to a potential 5% win (Ģ700) at some point will lead to an issue if not a) unwind from that hedged position somehow or b) balance it out over time with new trades or what ever, maybe even winning in the lottery.

I do also agree that you can always borrow money from a new bank. Still this won't make it any better. :-)

Maybe you can give an example of how you would normally come out of a countered trade situation here if like you say the smaller trades are not traded against the UK open range breakout setup you take. Some entries/exits on a chart would help sir.

Have a good start into the coming week and trade safe. Regards.
  • #54,762
  • Dec 7, 2020 2:51am Dec 7, 2020 2:51am
Quoting Avery
{quote} Hey billy. I did not talk about holding to a losing position until getting wiped out. Regards maths, stats. I just gave an example of this. I am not sure what you mean by keeping all trades separate. So you open one trading account for every new trade or what do you mean by this? I just tried to understand the plan/logic behind fixing a failed/countered trade. If your main trade goes wrong and you counter / lock it in, such potential loss (even if unrealized at that point) does not vanish into thin air correct? Having a few lost trades i...
Hi there - just to maybe save Billy reposting, I have read most of this thread over the last 6 months and I can confirm that there is a lot of coverage on countering techniques from more than just Billy.

I started with a thread search for the word 'counter' ...try it and see what you can pick up to begin with. It may take time to sink in (my knowledge of it is largely theoretical ATM) so don't get frustrated too quickly. Keep re-reading and see how you get on.
  • #54,763
  • Dec 7, 2020 3:10am Dec 7, 2020 3:10am
Quoting MichaelG
Quoting billytt
{quote} Thanks for that Billy, but I think Ainc (post 54,756) appears to be right. Your brokers open is 2 hours after mine. If you note on my chart, there are 24 x 1 hour candles......which you would expect to see in a 24 hour trading day. {image} BUT, on your 2 hourly chart, there are only 11 x 2 hour candles.....not 12 which would obviously reflect 24 x 1 hourly candles. {image} So not sure what to make of it all, but I'm a bit confused as to what I should be doing, as you mentioned that your broker DOES start from 00.00.
...
on Fri our markets closes at 21-00.
we have 24 x 1 hour bars or 12 x 2 hour, lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,764
  • Dec 7, 2020 3:16am Dec 7, 2020 3:16am
Big start to the week.
Cable 08-00 break, massive range and i left it. (no Trade) It made a lot off the low break, But thats life. my stats said it was good but alas i stayed away.

BUT ,,,,, i did batter the 00-00 4 hour bar range low, and also took a few off e/u.
i am finished now. yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,765
  • Dec 7, 2020 3:20am Dec 7, 2020 3:20am
Quoting billytt
{quote}{quote} on Fri our markets closes at 21-00. we have 24 x 1 hour bars or 12 x 2 hour, lol.
Sorry to be a nuisance Billy. I won't darken your doorstep again.

Cheers and good trading.
Michael
  • #54,766
  • Dec 7, 2020 3:20am Dec 7, 2020 3:20am
Quoting Avery
{quote} Hey billy. I did not talk about holding to a losing position until getting wiped out. Regards maths, stats. I just gave an example of this. I am not sure what you mean by keeping all trades separate. So you open one trading account for every new trade or what do you mean by this? I just tried to understand the plan/logic behind fixing a failed/countered trade. If your main trade goes wrong and you counter / lock it in, such potential loss (even if unrealized at that point) does not vanish into thin air correct? Having a few lost trades i...
There is nothing wrong with using a stop, but you'll be found out.
Counter, some people cannot get their head around the concept.
I agree you still close a losing trade ,but you have the winning trade which fixes it.
Sometimes the actual counter is positive when closed.
If i have a trade which is minus 50 and another trade which is plus 60,, that is plus 10.

You must remember, once i have a counter running i quite often play it, like an x box game.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,767
  • Dec 7, 2020 3:21am Dec 7, 2020 3:21am
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Sorry to be a nuisance Billy. I won't darken your doorstep again. Cheers and good trading. Michael
its no problem, keep asking questions. i/we help here.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,768
  • Dec 7, 2020 4:03am Dec 7, 2020 4:03am
Cable 00-00 4 hour bar break.
Chart below is cable 2 hour,
T =Trigger, X = the bar that broke 00-00 low.
1 = 70 range high,,,,2 = 70 range low,
SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO was looking for 40 (70 - 27 range = 43).
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,769
  • Dec 7, 2020 5:31am Dec 7, 2020 5:31am
Quoting stu
{quote} Hi there - just to maybe save Billy reposting, I have read most of this thread over the last 6 months and I can confirm that there is a lot of coverage on countering techniques from more than just Billy. I started with a thread search for the word 'counter' ...try it and see what you can pick up to begin with. It may take time to sink in (my knowledge of it is largely theoretical ATM) so don't get frustrated too quickly. Keep re-reading and see how you get on.
Thank you!!!
  • #54,770
  • Dec 7, 2020 5:36am Dec 7, 2020 5:36am
Quoting stu
{quote} Hi there - just to maybe save Billy reposting, I have read most of this thread over the last 6 months and I can confirm that there is a lot of coverage on countering techniques from more than just Billy. I started with a thread search for the word 'counter' ...try it and see what you can pick up to begin with. It may take time to sink in (my knowledge of it is largely theoretical ATM) so don't get frustrated too quickly. Keep re-reading and see how you get on.

good post, thank you Stu.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,771
  • Dec 7, 2020 5:59am Dec 7, 2020 5:59am
Quoting billytt
{quote} There is nothing wrong with using a stop, but you'll be found out. Counter, some people cannot get their head around the concept. I agree you still close a losing trade ,but you have the winning trade which fixes it. Sometimes the actual counter is positive when closed. If i have a trade which is minus 50 and another trade which is plus 60,, that is plus 10. You must remember, once i have a counter running i quite often play it, like an x box game.
Thank you for your answer Billy. Yes, this is what i thought. So you have to "play it" somehow. It's the "how" i tried to figure out. Using a stop, yes. But probably the risk/reward is a killer taking a 20-30 Pips loss depending on the range. A 20 SL would already need 4 more wins +5 to offset it. As there are only 20-22 days for the average trading month and perhaps you will be taking more than just one or two stop outs by the end of the month you might be lucky to end up break even.

For sure you donīt have to take/trade everyday's setup like it presents it self but leaving out one day because of what ever else filter you might apply (like the size of the range) will not only cut the losers, as well as leaving out potential winning candidates (see todays example).

So the answer her maybe lies in how to get out of the counter at a smaller loss/break even or even still +5. Do you mean this by playing it out like a game? So you then probably hold it locked until you see a good chance to close one side of the counter first, like the floating negative side at time the positive side will even start to increase? Or vice versa, closing the positive side of the trade at some point and then wait/hope for the negative side to decrease in it's losing amount.

Maybe there is also no clear answer to it and it only comes down to experience and then trading what you see once in a countered situation. But at rather a high amount of risk per Point 1% i would assume you have a clear plan here at least not even increasing your risk with "playing it out" without having any positive stats for this here too.

Will keep reading. Regards.
  • #54,772
  • Dec 7, 2020 6:11am Dec 7, 2020 6:11am
Quoting stu
I started with a thread search for the word 'counter' ...try it and see what you can pick up to begin with.
Thanks. Will do so.
  • #54,773
  • Dec 7, 2020 6:19am Dec 7, 2020 6:19am
[quote=Avery;13300494]{quote} Thank you for your answer Billy. Yes, this is what i thought. So you have to "play it" somehow. It's the "how" i tried to figure out. Using a stop, yes. But probably the risk/reward is a killer taking a 20-30 Pips loss depending on the range. A 20 SL would already need 4 more wins +5 to offset it. As there are only 20-22 days for the average trading month and perhaps you will be taking more than just one or two stop outs by the end of the month you might be lucky to end up break even. For sure you donīt have to take/trade everyday's setup like it presents it self but leaving out one day because of what ever else filter you might apply (like the size of the range) will not only cut the losers, as well as leaving out potential winning candidates (see todays example). So the answer her maybe lies in how to get out of the counter at a smaller loss/break even or even still +5. Do you mean this by playing it out like a game? So you then probably hold it locked until you see a good chance to close one side of the counter first, like the floating negative side at time the positive side will even start to increase? Or vice versa, closing the positive side of the trade at some point and then wait/hope for the negative side to decrease in it's losing amount. Maybe there is also no clear answer to it and it only comes down to experience and then trading what you see once in a countered situation. But at rather a high amount of risk per Point 1% i would assume you have a clear plan here at least not even increasing your risk with "playing it out" without having any positive stats for

So you then probably hold it locked until you see a good chance to close one side of the counter first, like the floating negative side at time the positive side will even start to increase? Or vice versa, closing the positive side of the trade at some point and then wait/hope for the negative side to decrease in it's losing amount.

NOW you're getting it!!!!

You have been thinking only of the -20 or whatever, that that remains static. Well, yes...but no. One side is always going to be increasing in profit [and the other going negative]. At some point, using yes, experience or voodoo or runes or whatever you go with, you can close one side, all you need is the negative side to drop a little and you will be in profit.

It is entirely possible to end up with both sides of your floating loss to end up green.

PLUS, that doesn't even take into account any other secondary trade that may be running in your positive direction.
  • #54,774
  • Dec 7, 2020 6:23am Dec 7, 2020 6:23am
Markets are a bit leery this morning. Wasn't on for The Billy-Bar and only since 10.30 or so but patience required.

Got a bag in the end.

US30 1-min Kijun-sen +5.4

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  • #54,775
  • Dec 7, 2020 6:24am Dec 7, 2020 6:24am
Quoting lemercenaire
Quoting Avery
{quote} Thank you for your answer Billy. Yes, this is what i thought. So you have to "play it" somehow. It's the "how" i tried to figure out. Using a stop, yes. But probably the risk/reward is a killer taking a 20-30 Pips loss depending on the range. A 20 SL would already need 4 more wins +5 to offset it. As there are only 20-22 days for the average trading month and perhaps you will be taking more than just one or two stop outs by the end of the month you might be lucky to end up break even. For sure you donīt have to take/trade
...
Never mind all that cable was an easy run down - horsey time now. Chelmsford Mr Gosden has some interesting rides. Maybe not for you but worth a look. Then Wolverhampton this evening Adam has two rides at good prices.
  • #54,776
  • Dec 7, 2020 7:01am Dec 7, 2020 7:01am
Quoting claudia1
{quote}{quote} Never mind all that cable was an easy run down - horsey time now. Chelmsford Mr Gosden has some interesting rides. Maybe not for you but worth a look. Then Wolverhampton this evening Adam has two rides at good prices.
Waiting on The Dax just now but should it ever make up its mind, I will drop over for a look. Cheers.
  • #54,777
  • Dec 7, 2020 7:11am Dec 7, 2020 7:11am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Waiting on The Dax just now but should it ever make up its mind, I will drop over for a look. Cheers.
Done.

Seemingly horrible entries but I did get the best price I could at the time I checked the chart for the pull down into Demand, so all good.

DAX 5-min Pull into Demand. +1.5 +2.8 +5 [+9.3]

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  • #54,778
  • Dec 7, 2020 7:17am Dec 7, 2020 7:17am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Done. Seemingly horrible entries but I did get the best price I could at the time I checked the chart for the pull down into Demand, so all good. DAX 5-min Pull into Demand. +1.5 +2.8 +5 [+9.3] {image}
Just FYI. That full move...picture perfect.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #54,779
  • Dec 7, 2020 8:02am Dec 7, 2020 8:02am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Waiting on The Dax just now but should it ever make up its mind, I will drop over for a look. Cheers.
Got the winner in the first with Gosden. Not a huge price but a win.
  • #54,780
  • Dec 7, 2020 8:04am Dec 7, 2020 8:04am
Quoting claudia1
{quote}{quote} Never mind all that cable was an easy run down - horsey time now. Chelmsford Mr Gosden has some interesting rides. Maybe not for you but worth a look. Then Wolverhampton this evening Adam has two rides at good prices.
Really open races but many are very tradeable so all good, cheers.
Wolverhampton in the eve actually has some good looking races.
I may get a few EWs but as I said, mostly trading, I think. Looks like it's going to be a good day at the tracks!
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