Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2738 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading Rules for die-hards... 47 replies

Trading Systems work for 6-12 mnths then die? 14 replies

5 Rules to Trade or Die By 5 replies

Trading Live Against The Beast--Gbd/Jpy--(Do Or Die)-- 3 replies

die young 8 replies

Attachments: Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout
Exit Attachments

Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #54,741
  • Dec 5, 2020 7:28am Dec 5, 2020 7:28am
Quoting bidie
{quote} - I find the currencies can make huge unexpected moves at times like this - to deal with options positions possibly?
If you are day trading (as most here are) then ignore options just over complicates things. A lot of the big moves on cable are down to Brexit talks as Lem said yesterday. All got a bit silly really.

Again as Lem said indices are an easier trade at the moment.
  • #54,742
  • Dec 5, 2020 7:50am Dec 5, 2020 7:50am
[quote=Avery;13297924]{quote} Hi. Just to get this right, if you talk of 1 Pip = 1%, the 1% is based on the account's overall balance, not a part of it? So let's say you have 100k in your "bank/account". 1% here would equal to $1000/Pip, position size would be 100 standart lots. In todays example you would have faced a fail with the first break of the high. The range was about 30 Pips. At time of the counter you would have locked -$30k leaving you 70k in the bank/account to fix it. The low then broke for something like 20 i think (but you don“t know this before, maybe it just goes 4 and returns again). Would you then leave the third short trade opened until it touches the high again? You would then having locked another 30 Pips, -30% or -30k. A 60% of the accounts capital locked after the second break failed too.

Hi A, I will answer later. I am at a bar right now with mobile. DON'T OVERTHINK. catch you later.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,743
  • Dec 5, 2020 8:04am Dec 5, 2020 8:04am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Think about what you are saying. If you were at scratch (+/-0), why would you then let yourself go back to -40? Billy and I counter trade in slightly different ways but both styles have been explained in great detail through the thread and there is a breakdown of topics on page #1 now.
Hello there. What i meant is, if the range is 20 and it breaks the high first. You buy. It moves back to the low. You open a counter (sell). You are locked -20 Points, having two trades opened.

Now the question was if you then open a third trade short at time of the counter looking for +5 again or +20 but it doesn“t give you that (price turns up again). Where do you stop or counter this trade then? You want to have a stop for that third trade too? If this would be the high again and it moves back there the third trade is another -20, hence -40 in sum.
  • #54,744
  • Dec 5, 2020 8:16am Dec 5, 2020 8:16am
Quoting billytt
A, I will answer later. I am at a bar right now with mobile. DON'T OVERTHINK. catch you later.
No rush. Enjoy your stay. I am going to read more of the topic.
  • #54,745
  • Edited 10:56am Dec 5, 2020 10:38am | Edited 10:56am
Avery, i copied these charts off my laptop.(a different one thaan yesterday)
chart below, lets look for a 70 range. 1 =high ...2 = low (we do not know where it will go,
Attached Image
, chart below, as price moves we adjust the 2 70 range markers.,high/low area taken off 3. (then look at what 4 did).
Attached Image
.
then more movement,1 & 2 high/low area is now taken off big green bar to left (was 4).
Attached Image

as the coup de grace, i put the adr bar in, range of 120.
Attached Image


edit, and yes we had breaks and retraces,MEANING FAILS...
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,746
  • Dec 5, 2020 10:43am Dec 5, 2020 10:43am
Avery, once we minus the 00-00 4 hour rang T, we can look for the 70 .
so yesterday range was 30 (i honestly cannot remember. 70 -30 =40.
we had a potential 40 points to play for. (forget about daily range for now).

i do not always counter plus trade . i did yesterday and also the day before.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,747
  • Dec 5, 2020 10:50am Dec 5, 2020 10:50am
Avery,
remember, i have 1 bank for 1 trade and if /when that gets busted i borrow from my big bank.

my small trade are £10 a point when i play chase the daily range (or part of it.
and my main trade is £140 a point . i trade Spread Bet.

Its all numbers,plus i use a fraction of my main bank.
I muscle in like playing poker.

If you trade like the way they tell you to, it is very hard and you'll lose,
Use maths ,stats your laughing.
i must say, trading is harder now than it was a few years ago,mainly due to margin rules.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,748
  • Dec 5, 2020 10:54am Dec 5, 2020 10:54am
Avery,
also, my philosophy. and another clue.
On a Monday, if i had 100 and on Thursday it was 200, On Fri i end with 105,
HAVE I WON OR LOST.....or did i make 5% ??????????

dont forget compounding too..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,749
  • Dec 5, 2020 12:42pm Dec 5, 2020 12:42pm
Billytt. Thank you for the chart illustrations and your time.

So if i do understand correct you make use the smaller sized breakout trades on the 00-04 range to balance out a countered breakout trade with the 08-15 range.

Knowing by statistics that GBP/USD will normally move a minimum of 70 pips for the day this will give you potentially more points you can then look for with any further trade/s. It makes sense, yes :-)

But

A countered 'main' trade of a 20 Points 08-15 range. You are locked in at 20 x £140/Point = -£2800.

To make up for that with one or more trade/s, you would then already need a 280 Points at £10/Point to be back to break even. 280 x £10 = £2800.

Or like you said alternatively you could instantly add a third trade of same size to the counter. Providing the second break will then move a 20 Points in your favor you could be break even after the second break quiet fast. For sure the second break could fail too. Having it stopped out or countered at the opposite end of the range again you would be then down twice for -£2800.

Yes compounding, looking at the longer term outcome. But lets assume a 20 days trading month.

You have 80% success rate on the first break. 16 out of 20 trades won for +5 Points. (+80%). You have 4 fails at a range of 20 Points 4 x -20 (-80%). A break even month. (not counting in comissions on a trade you might have).

So even with a good strike rate of hitting +5 after the first break. With just 2-3 fails/counters, not having them cleared somehow, it will be hard to stay profitable by the end of a month or? I mean by NOT doing these additional trades of the 00-04 range (that is perhaps a seperate setup coming with its own rules), and looking for more points then instead of +5.

best regards.
  • #54,750
  • Dec 5, 2020 12:54pm Dec 5, 2020 12:54pm
Quoting Avery
Billytt. Thank you for the chart illustrations and your time. So if i do understand correct you make use the smaller sized breakout trades on the 00-04 range to balance out a countered breakout trade with the 08-15 range. Knowing by statistics that GBP/USD will normally move a minimum of 70 pips for the day this will give you potentially more points you can then look for with any further trade/s. It makes sense, yes :-) But A countered 'main' trade of a 20 Points 08-15 range. You are locked in at 20 x £140/Point = -£2800. To make up for that with...

Well, there you go, Billy. You're doing it all wrong. How you make any money at all is a complete mystery. Ho hum...
  • #54,751
  • Dec 5, 2020 3:48pm Dec 5, 2020 3:48pm
[quote=Avery;13298810]Billytt. Thank you for the chart illustrations and your time. So if i do understand correct you make use the smaller sized breakout trades on the 00-04 range to balance out a countered breakout trade with the 08-15 range. Knowing by statistics that GBP/USD will normally move a minimum of 70 pips for the day this will give you potentially more points you can then look for with any further trade/s. It makes sense, yes :-) But A countered 'main' trade of a 20 Points 08-15 range. You are locked in at 20 x £140/Point = -£2800. To make up for that with one or more trade/s, you would then already need a 280 Points at £10/Point to be back to break even. 280 x £10 = £2800. Or like you said alternatively you could instantly add a third trade of same size to the counter. Providing the second break will then move a 20 Points in your favor you could be break even after the second break quiet fast. For sure the second break could fail too.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,752
  • Dec 5, 2020 3:59pm Dec 5, 2020 3:59pm
Quoting billytt
Quoting Avery
Billytt. Thank you for the chart illustrations and your time. So if i do understand correct you make use the smaller sized breakout trades on the 00-04 range to balance out a countered breakout trade with the 08-15 range. Knowing by statistics that GBP/USD will normally move a minimum of 70 pips for the day this will give you potentially more points you can then look for with any further trade/s. It makes sense, yes :-) But A countered 'main' trade of a 20 Points 08-15 range. You are locked in at 20 x £140/Point = -£2800. To
...
NO NO NO, All trades are separate.
I do not trade the small account against/with the main account.
Avery, you may be just too smart to trade. I honestly think you will decide that Forex is not the way.
Maths, stats, numbers is the way. (for me).
Dont let a few fails get you down.
Another clue. How many traders hold a losing position until they blow???? What if they kept a winning position instead????
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,753
  • Dec 5, 2020 4:00pm Dec 5, 2020 4:00pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Well, there you go, Billy. You're doing it all wrong. How you make any money at all is a complete mystery. Ho hum...
Cheers bud.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,754
  • Dec 5, 2020 4:02pm Dec 5, 2020 4:02pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Well, there you go, Billy. You're doing it all wrong. How you make any money at all is a complete mystery. Ho hum...
AND,,,,, There is the bit I haven't ever told. Shhhhh lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,755
  • Edited 9:08pm Dec 5, 2020 8:56pm | Edited 9:08pm
Quoting billytt
Avery, i copied these charts off my laptop.(a different one thaan yesterday) chart below, lets look for a 70 range. 1 =high ...2 = low (we do not know where it will go, {image}, chart below, as price moves we adjust the 2 70 range markers.,high/low area taken off 3. (then look at what 4 did). {image}. then more movement,1 & 2 high/low area is now taken off big green bar to left (was 4). {image} as the coup de grace, i put the adr bar in, range of 120. {image} edit, and yes we had breaks and retraces,MEANING FAILS...
Hi Billy.
Sorry to bother you (and others), but a question about these charts.

My assumption was you were looking at the START of the trading day......that is at 00.00. (Immediately after NY close). (Shown at A)

But your range is taken from the start of the 3rd hourly candle (02.00)(shown at B)

Have I got this completely arse about?

Again, my apologies for the intrusion.
Cheers
Michael

EDIT. That SHOULD read ....4th Dec 00.00 - 01.59.59

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Billy.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #54,756
  • Dec 6, 2020 4:21am Dec 6, 2020 4:21am
Hi Michael, it just that his broker daily open starts two hours later than yours. Hope this help
  • #54,757
  • Dec 6, 2020 5:12am Dec 6, 2020 5:12am
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Hi Billy. Sorry to bother you (and others), but a question about these charts. My assumption was you were looking at the START of the trading day......that is at 00.00. (Immediately after NY close). (Shown at A) But your range is taken from the start of the 3rd hourly candle (02.00)(shown at B) Have I got this completely arse about? Again, my apologies for the intrusion. Cheers Michael EDIT. That SHOULD read ....4th Dec 00.00 - 01.59.59 {image}
Hi M, and welcome.
I will post a chart later with prices. So you will know. I am sure other guys will help out too.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,758
  • Dec 6, 2020 6:12am Dec 6, 2020 6:12am
Quoting Ainc
Hi Michael, it just that his broker daily open starts two hours later than yours. Hope this help

Many thanks Ainc and Billy.

I guess my (sort of) point is that the "given / official" CLOSE of any 24 hour trading day is 5 PM NY time when they ring that bloody bell.

So if that is correct (which I suggest it is), then the NEW trading day would start 1 millisecond after 5 PM NY time.

Now......my broker USES this 24 hour time frame.....and therefore....my DAILY candle closes at 5 PM NY time (24.00.00...the end of the 24 hour trading day).....and again,,,,,therefore.....my NEW Trading day starts immediately after that NY close.That is obviously at 00.00.00

NOW....I am not sure what other brokers do with their times.....but IF the DAILY TRADING CLOSE ISN'T 5 PM NY time.......then could someone KINDLY let me into the secret time that the trading day actually closes/starts please.

Sorry....that might sound a little harsh, but I have had this conversation many times about the Trading day open/close times and if a broker doesn't follow the "24 hour" trading day with their chart times then I wouldn't go near them with a barge pole.

Antway....late in Tassie now, so off to bed with me.
Cheer ALL
Michael
  • #54,759
  • Dec 6, 2020 11:19am Dec 6, 2020 11:19am
[quote=MichaelG;13299194]{quote} Many thanks Ainc and Billy. I guess my (sort of) point is that the "given / official" CLOSE of any 24 hour trading day is 5 PM NY time when they ring that bloody bell. So if that is correct (which I suggest it is), then the NEW trading day would start 1 millisecond after 5 PM NY time. Now......my broker USES this 24 hour time frame.....an

Hi M, chart showing 00-00 & 08-00 price upen.
Please not all my trades and bot operate off the actual 00-00 & 08-00 times and notBST.
Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54,760
  • Dec 6, 2020 5:44pm Dec 6, 2020 5:44pm
[quote=billytt;13299366]
Quoting MichaelG
{quote} Many thanks Ainc and Billy. I guess my (sort of) point is that the "given / official" CLOSE of any 24 hour trading day is 5 PM NY time when they ring that bloody bell. So if that is correct (which I suggest it is), then the NEW trading day would start 1 millisecond after 5 PM NY time. Now......my broker USES this 24 hour time frame.....an Hi M, chart showing 00-00 & 08-00 price upen. Please not all my trades and bot operate off the actual 00-00 & 08-00 times and notBST. {image}
Thanks for that Billy, but I think Ainc (post 54,756) appears to be right. Your brokers open is 2 hours after mine.

If you note on my chart, there are 24 x 1 hour candles......which you would expect to see in a 24 hour trading day.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Billy 4.jpg Size: 97 KB

BUT, on your 2 hourly chart, there are only 11 x 2 hour candles.....not 12 which would obviously reflect 24 x 1 hourly candles.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Billy 2.jpg Size: 57 KB

So not sure what to make of it all, but I'm a bit confused as to what I should be doing, as you mentioned that your broker DOES start from 00.00.

Anyway, any suggestions would be welcome. (only nice one's please lol)

Cheers
Michael
78 traders viewing now