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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,621
  • Dec 1, 2020 9:08am Dec 1, 2020 9:08am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDJPY, long trade {image}
USDJPY, long trade update. The trade is going well despite a weak USD today. R @ 104.60/65. Possible short setup @ 105
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 121.png Size: 41 KB
  • #9,622
  • Dec 1, 2020 9:31am Dec 1, 2020 9:31am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, possible short setup @ .91 and long setup @ .90 {image}
I would have drawn the retracement like this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MusicMath 1.png Size: 110 KB


Questions:

1. As always, any insight into when and where to draw the retracement would be helpful. That's not a question. So let me rephrase. Do you have any insight into when and where to draw the FIB retracement?

2. What type of PA are you looking for to signal an entry at the desired level?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #9,623
  • Dec 1, 2020 10:28am Dec 1, 2020 10:28am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, got S @ Fib 38 and former R turned S. Possible short setup @ 1.20. USD looks weak. Be careful with the short setup as EU may break above 1.20 this time. {image}
EURUSD, OK, 1.20 level is blown. That's a solid bullish candle.

Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, monthly chart, the bias is bullish above 1.16. It seems we are going to see higher levels on EU in the years ahead. Long term targets are 1.22, 1.25, 1.30, and 1.32. {image}
I was bullish on EU in the long term, but I thought we might see lower levels first before heading higher.

Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Usually in DEC we see nonsense one way moves without respecting S/R levels. Just a heads-up if these levels perform poorly next month. Then we need to switch to different techniques.
On the day first day of December
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily 1210.png Size: 51 KB
  • #9,624
  • Edited 11:19am Dec 1, 2020 11:05am | Edited 11:19am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} I would have drawn the retracement like this: {image} Questions: 1. As always, any insight into when and where to draw the retracement would be helpful. That's not a question. So let me rephrase. Do you have any insight into when and where to draw the FIB retracement? 2. What type of PA are you looking for to signal an entry at the desired level?
Thanks for the chart it made it clear why my entry was missed.

As for your questions, I use Fibonacci when we have a chart with clear swing highs and swing lows. I don't have a very good answer on which swing is best to use when there is more than one swing. I think when in doubt, it makes sense to draw Fibonacci retracement on both swings. Sometimes those retracement show us a confluence level by themselves. I am attaching USDCHF chart as an example.

Regarding the PA, I use pin bars like everyone else. I also use double bottom/top formations (if there is any) on M1 or M5 as a conformation. If a level seems solid enough and I have high confidence in the setup, I might use a pending limit order just at the level with tight SL. So basically, sometimes, I don't wait for a conformation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 76yh.PNG Size: 83 KB
  • #9,625
  • Dec 1, 2020 11:18am Dec 1, 2020 11:18am
GBPUSD, I was waiting to load a long trade @ 1.33. But it didn't drop to that level. It seems the 1.33-1.34 range is most likely blown (a daily close above 1.34 will confirm). The bias is bullish above 1.33 and the dips can be bought. Possible short setup @ 1.3480-1.35
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily tyrt6.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4 21 1t.png Size: 30 KB
  • #9,626
  • Dec 1, 2020 11:52am Dec 1, 2020 11:52am
Scalping short EU @ 1.2050
  • #9,627
  • Dec 1, 2020 12:09pm Dec 1, 2020 12:09pm
EURJPY, D1 is bullish. Possible long setup @ 124 and short setup @ 127
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily 34rf.png Size: 32 KB
  • #9,628
  • Dec 1, 2020 12:17pm Dec 1, 2020 12:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks for the chart it made it clear why my entry was missed. As for your questions, I use Fibonacci when we have a chart with clear swing highs and swing lows. I don't have a very good answer on which swing is best to use when there is more than one swing. I think when in doubt, it makes sense to draw Fibonacci retracement on both swings. Sometimes those retracement show us a confluence level by themselves. I am attaching USDCHF chart as an example. Regarding the PA, I use pin bars like everyone else. I also use double bottom/top formations...
Can you share the fib you are using
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #9,629
  • Dec 1, 2020 12:24pm Dec 1, 2020 12:24pm
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} Can you share the fib you are using
I draw the Fibonacci retracement manually using the MT4 tool. Or the tradingview tool when I use that for charting.

C-12 shared an auto-fib indicator here https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13283554
  • #9,630
  • Dec 1, 2020 12:41pm Dec 1, 2020 12:41pm
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, I was waiting to load a long trade @ 1.33. But it didn't drop to that level. It seems the 1.33-1.34 range is most likely blown (a daily close above 1.34 will confirm). The bias is bullish above 1.33 and the dips can be bought. Possible short setup @ 1.3480-1.35 {image} {image}
GBPUSD, the long trade was an easy decision after the range break out and retracement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 1234tg.png Size: 57 KB
  • #9,631
  • Dec 1, 2020 3:48pm Dec 1, 2020 3:48pm
Quoting shahab8b
Scalping short EU @ 1.2050
stopped out of that trade with loss
  • #9,632
  • Dec 1, 2020 3:52pm Dec 1, 2020 3:52pm
EURUSD, weekly chart. It seems EU wants 1.22-1.24. Next possible short setup @ 1.22. There is no good reason to short the pair atm, unless we see a topping pattern on smaller TFs (e.g. H4/H1)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly 5564.png Size: 28 KB
  • #9,633
  • Dec 1, 2020 4:39pm Dec 1, 2020 4:39pm
Quoting Techanalyst
EURUSD is bullish long term. {image} {image}
Are you still in that trade? It was a very good call.
  • #9,634
  • Dec 1, 2020 4:58pm Dec 1, 2020 4:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Are you still in that trade? It was a very good call.
Closed it today same as NZDUSD. Both in profit. Will re-enter EURUSD on a pullback... how about you?
  • #9,635
  • Dec 1, 2020 4:58pm Dec 1, 2020 4:58pm
USDCAD, trend is bearish below 1.30. Possible counter trend long setup @ 1.29
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily 1223 129.png Size: 32 KB
  • #9,636
  • Dec 1, 2020 5:10pm Dec 1, 2020 5:10pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Closed it today same as NZDUSD. Both in profit. Will re-enter EURUSD on a pullback... how about you?
Well done! I didn't take any EU long. I'm holing long GU. If EU drops to that box I will go long. But I don't see it happening with this PA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily 121rtgsw.png Size: 24 KB
  • #9,637
  • Dec 2, 2020 3:24am Dec 2, 2020 3:24am
Going short EU @ 1.2062, sl 15 pips
  • #9,638
  • Dec 2, 2020 3:30am Dec 2, 2020 3:30am
Quoting shahab8b
Going short EU @ 1.2062, sl 15 pips
The chart for the EU short trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5 123r.png Size: 37 KB
  • #9,639
  • Dec 2, 2020 3:38am Dec 2, 2020 3:38am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDJPY, long trade {image}
USDJPY long trade update. Possible short setup @ 105
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 34rtg.png Size: 41 KB
  • #9,640
  • Dec 2, 2020 3:41am Dec 2, 2020 3:41am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The chart for the EU short trade. {image}
This is a counter trend trade so I will try to move sl to b/e soon
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