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Rearden's Journal

  • #261
  • Dec 1, 2020 2:21am Dec 1, 2020 2:21am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} I don't know if you have noticed, but you are now "seeing" the next logical trade. You already know what you want to do, what it will look like, how you will react. You don't know when or where, but you see what your next trade looks like well before it happens.
Hi G

Yes. I can see that and it feels better and easier to trade when we are prepared in advance for a set up. And more importantly just seeing the charts in a methodical way feels so much better to filter out noise and look for what you want to trade and react accordingly. I am improving at it day by day.
  • #262
  • Dec 1, 2020 8:28am Dec 1, 2020 8:28am
Quoting Rearden
01 Dec Bias: UP Move: Down. The price went to 1.2000 BRN and came down. Closed below the S50 and the white line. As of now, the price has to hold above the 1.2 for the UP move to resume. If it close above the S50, I will try the #3b trade since this is a bias week and record down the results. {image}
I had entered the #3b trade and it hit the target at previous swing high around 1.1992. I had a PO further down the channel but that didnt get triggered. I am not attempting to run the trade now. Also, 1. price has reached the previous swing high+BRN, 2. Price is in a down move.

This is my second #3b trade. Both worked in my favour (Even though I didnt take the first trade). I need to get more samples for the #3b trade when it will work and when it will not.

Next, price is near the channel high. S50 and Pivot are at the middle of that channel. Better trades will be from the sides of the channel but I will enter as per the rules tommorow with a better entry near the white line.
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  • #263
  • Dec 1, 2020 4:25pm Dec 1, 2020 4:25pm
02 Dec

UP BIAS UP move

The market broke higher and held above. Last time too, the #3b trade gave a nice return(It has not been below entry point until now since Nov 12 trade). I am not very worried that I am not in the trade when it broke out. But as G mentioned, #3b is the initial change in direction and I have to start taking note of when it will run and when it doesnt.

For today, I placed a trade at pivot,S50 and one near the white line with target at 2124
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  • #264
  • Dec 2, 2020 11:13am Dec 2, 2020 11:13am
Quoting Rearden
02 Dec UP BIAS UP move The market broke higher and held above. Last time too, the #3b trade gave a nice return(It has not been below entry point until now since Nov 12 trade). I am not very worried that I am not in the trade when it broke out. But as G mentioned, #3b is the initial change in direction and I have to start taking note of when it will run and when it doesnt. For today, I placed a trade at pivot,S50 and one near the white line with target at 2124 {image}
Yes... think about why you would be taking that trade in the first place. You take that trade as an attempt to catch the beginning of a move in the direction of bias. We never know how far a move will go, but this is the entry with the greatest potential to get you into your biggest moves.
Be bullish on you.
  • #265
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:42pm Dec 2, 2020 4:42pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Yes... think about why you would be taking that trade in the first place. You take that trade as an attempt to catch the beginning of a move in the direction of bias. We never know how far a move will go, but this is the entry with the greatest potential to get you into your biggest moves.
Yes G. this makes sense. I will add in a rule to test running #3b trades from next time.
  • #266
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:02pm Dec 2, 2020 5:02pm
03 Dec

Up Bias, Up Move

The market went up after retracing back to the pause it created on 01 Dec. It didnt retrace to Pivot and S50. Before the exercise, there were instances when Pending orders were kept higher/lower near significant pauses from where price pushed higher/lower when the distance to white line is very big. The risk increases with this type of scenario but I can test this for entry from next time.

For today, Price made a new HH. the white line moved higher. I kept a PO at pivot and one near the white line to test my better entries.

? I am noticing that when market moves are directional, there is very less likelihood of market retracing to trigger my better entries. I will watch and take note of this.
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  • #267
  • Dec 3, 2020 5:25pm Dec 3, 2020 5:25pm
04 Dec

Up move UP bias.

The price has been going up for the past 3 days. Since, today is Friday, I will not enter any new trades at the #2. however, I will place a PO at my better entry position near the white line where #3 is.
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  • #268
  • Edited 6:28pm Dec 4, 2020 6:01pm | Edited 6:28pm
Weekly Summary 30 November to 04 Dec
==========================

This has been a very good week in learning. Doing the exercise, I have acquired skills to read the chart, move the swing etc. I identified the #3b trade in advance and was waiting for it and took the trade and got profit. But I was not able to capitalize on the full potential of the trade. I was by the side for whole week.

Also, on testing "better entry trades".......none of them was triggered. I will observe if the better entry works better in a ranging market than when market is directional.

I also noted that, when price is moving directionally, there will be instances when price creates a big swing and it may not retrace to the pivot and S50 always. Before the exercise G had showed ways to identify areas where price have paused and then pushed further. There was one such instance this week.

To summarise, I will take note and think about why each trade is taken. Why is it better not be aggressive during No bias week? Why do we target the next swing when price is above the S50? When a week is called a bias week, what does it mean? etc. When does better entries work best? Thinking about this and sinking these concepting in my mind will ultimately help me to know when to run a trade, when not to, when to exit a trade without hesitation etc. It will also help to hold the trades longer rather than exiting and feel good about a small winner when the potential is bigger.

Weekend homework is to check past charts and observe different trade setup from this perspective.

The market has closed below the S50 after 4 days. The white line moved up. I will see what the new week brings and look to trade accordingly.
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  • #269
  • Edited 7:21pm Dec 4, 2020 7:04pm | Edited 7:21pm
Quoting Rearden
Weekly Summary
I noticed that I have not summarised what I learned the week before

23 November to 27 November
==================
This was a week when price was still within the range in higher time frames. I was not sure which direction it will break. When I saw the poke to the downside I thought there is a higher probability it might break lower. But then it came back and closed above the S50 and changed direction. G has talked about it earlier.

I started testing the better entries and there was only one instance(on 23rd Nov) the price came down to trigger those entries. But I had exited since my target was hit for the day. I have to see if it is the location that I place or the nature of market that keeps from triggering those entries. I am not worried about those entries not getting triggered but I am looking to do it in the correct way. On 26th November, there was an opportunity for better entries. But that was thanksgiving day and I was staying away from the market.
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  • #270
  • Edited 5:23pm Dec 6, 2020 4:27pm | Edited 5:23pm
07 Dec-Monday

Bias:UP, UP move

The bias is up and move is up and I entered the market on open. I placed a PO at the 1.2100 for testing better entries. Generally during bias weeks, when market is below the S50 it is better to wait for the market to reach the edge or wait for a sign that it want to go up and then engage.

The market is still in up move. So the #3b will not apply if the price holds above the S50 and returns to it.

Update : Target is at the swing high from where it came down( at 2170)
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  • #271
  • Dec 7, 2020 5:09am Dec 7, 2020 5:09am
Quoting Rearden
07 Dec-Monday Bias:UP, UP move The bias is up and move is up and I entered the market on open. I placed a PO at the 1.2100 for testing better entries. Generally during bias weeks, when market is below the S50 it is better to wait for the market to reach the edge or wait for a sign that it want to go up and then engage. The market is still in up move. So the #3b will not apply if the price holds above the S50 and returns to it. Update : Target is at the swing high from where it came down( at 2170) {image}
The price hold below my white line and is now in a down move. I exited both my positions. This was not a surprise since the price was below the S50 at the time of the entry. The summary of bias week said to look for a trade from the edge or once market has showed it wants to go up.

I will look for a #3b trade since it is an up bias move and look to hold it longer than taking profit at the swing high.
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  • #272
  • Dec 7, 2020 4:44pm Dec 7, 2020 4:44pm
08 Dec
Up Bias,Down move,

The price is in a 100 pip range from 2077-2177. Price went up to test the highs and got back below the S50. Is that a clue for price to test the low or break down further? I will watch if the action of last week of OCT gets repeated. For today no trade since its still in down move. With the close below S50,no #3b trade as well.
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  • #273
  • Dec 7, 2020 6:39pm Dec 7, 2020 6:39pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} The price hold below my white line and is now in a down move. I exited both my positions. This was not a surprise since the price was below the S50 at the time of the entry. The summary of bias week said to look for a trade from the edge or once market has showed it wants to go up. I will look for a #3b trade since it is an up bias move and look to hold it longer than taking profit at the swing high. {image}
Thinking about the trade that I exited yesterday when it went to down move.....

The yellow line is where my white line was and price closed below it when I exited as per the rules.

But further to the left there was an area from where the price pushed UP from(Yellow Arrow). The price tested that area and went up.

? I am thinking if it is better not to exit immediately when the move changes in scenarios like this. But keep an SL below the wick of the candle and trail it higher as the price moves higher. Since it has turned to a down move, there is no question of running the trade but this may help in reducing the loss and may provide an opportunity to exit at BE or smaller loss than compared to the immediate exit when it close above/below white line. I have been noticing this happen in many scenarios. Price giving a better location to exit than immediately at the white line. This may not work every time. But i can keep this in mind for future to see if it is prudent to do this or if it will just continue in the same direction more often .
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  • #274
  • Dec 8, 2020 4:13pm Dec 8, 2020 4:13pm
09 Dec
Up bias down move.

Market is within the same range as yesterday. Waiting patiently.
  • #275
  • Dec 9, 2020 8:38am Dec 9, 2020 8:38am
Quoting Rearden
09 Dec Up bias down move. Market is within the same range as yesterday. Waiting patiently.
i took the #3b trade on the retrace to S50 and kept a PO near the white lines
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  • #276
  • Dec 9, 2020 1:36pm Dec 9, 2020 1:36pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} i took the #3b trade on the retrace to S50 and kept a PO near the white lines {image}
So tell me the difference between this one and the last one. (Keep it simple, pretend like you know nothing about trading and look at the chart picture)
Be bullish on you.
  • #277
  • Edited Dec 10, 2020 1:28am Dec 9, 2020 5:05pm | Edited Dec 10, 2020 1:28am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} So tell me the difference between this one and the last one. (Keep it simple, pretend like you know nothing about trading and look at the chart picture)
Hi G,

In the previous instance, price was above the S50 most of the time. Went to a Down move and quickly came back above the S50. Here in the instance, the price was ranging and was below S50 most of the time before the #3b. Also, this is the second attempt to stay above the S50.On Monday price tried to hold above once but quickly got rejected.

Update:
Also, I find that during last week... the price was making Higher Highs and Higher lows and this week its Lower Lows and Lower highs.
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  • #278
  • Dec 9, 2020 7:17pm Dec 9, 2020 7:17pm
10 Dec

UP bias Down Move

Price is in a down move. Not much to do
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  • #279
  • Dec 10, 2020 5:20am Dec 10, 2020 5:20am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, In the previous instance, price was above the S50 most of the time. Went to a Down move and quickly came back above the S50. Here in the instance, the price was ranging and was below S50 most of the time before the #3b. Also, this is the second attempt to stay above the S50.On Monday price tried to hold above once but quickly got rejected. Update: Also, I find that during last week... the price was making Higher Highs and Higher lows and this week its Lower Lows and Lower highs. {image}
Hi G,

Did i get it right?
  • #280
  • Dec 10, 2020 6:48am Dec 10, 2020 6:48am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, In the previous instance, price was above the S50 most of the time. Went to a Down move and quickly came back above the S50. Here in the instance, the price was ranging and was below S50 most of the time before the #3b. Also, this is the second attempt to stay above the S50.On Monday price tried to hold above once but quickly got rejected. Update: Also, I find that during last week... the price was making Higher Highs and Higher lows and this week its Lower Lows and Lower highs. {image}
Love this picture, great for this thought exercise...

We could look at the red line, what was it doing preceding the trade last time, and preceding the trade this time? Was moving with the trade last time, against this time.

Were there failures of similar attempts? Last time, no. This time, yes.

Now, if we had never traded and were brand new to forex, we wouldn't know if these things mattered much or give us an edge. Time will tell us. But your ideas are great, I gave you mine to encourage you to start simple. The simpler I make trading the better I continue to do versus my early days when I'd always try to bring in deeper analysis.

Part 2 - Now start thinking about... is there anything I could have done to reduce the loss? Can I use the same rules that got me in the trade to get me out of the trade if it fails? Reduce a 40 pip loss to an 8 pip loss? Do I skip these setups with previous failures at the s50 and just trade from the bottom of the channel, or the traditional close back above the s50 and pivot?
Be bullish on you.
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