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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #7,841
  • Nov 30, 2020 6:56am Nov 30, 2020 6:56am
Quoting Lock
{quote} those at HB 33285 are no more. Those who bought at 3306 poor low are still in place. It can be not over yet upside. Waiting for new participants.

The reason I wrote this is that if it was over upside you wouldn't have seen this liquidation stopped only below HB. The fact that 3306 are still in place can let us think that we still have no good sellers into this market. And in any case new participants could help us to better understand the situation.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,842
  • Nov 30, 2020 7:46am Nov 30, 2020 7:46am
And again, also in this preUs session B period low at current HB (3336)... carry forward..
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,843
  • Nov 30, 2020 7:52am Nov 30, 2020 7:52am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Now on m30 chart we are right now testing major trendline (around 3363). Not the same thing on bigger charts (H4, D1, weekly and monthly). In any case be aware of what is occurring also in your timeframe.
Quoting Lock
{quote} those at HB 33285 are no more. Those who bought at 3306 poor low are still in place. It can be not over yet upside. Waiting for new participants.
Quoting Lock
{quote} The reason I wrote this is that if it was over upside you wouldn't have seen this liquidation stopped only below HB. The fact that 3306 are still in place can let us think that we still have no good sellers into this market. And in any case new participants could help us to better understand the situation.
again at m30 major trendline, as you see...
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,844
  • Nov 30, 2020 8:08am Nov 30, 2020 8:08am
the higher it goes the bigger the opportunity to sell: the only thing that can avoid a huge liquidation is something extraordinary like a success above major timeframe trendline. For this to happen we should have some huge shift in value into current market.
Otherwise if it test and fail (higher timeframe like weekly or monthly) that trendline, we will have a substantial liquidation downside.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,845
  • Nov 30, 2020 12:30pm Nov 30, 2020 12:30pm
Quoting Lock
And again, also in this preUs session B period low at current HB (3336)... carry forward..
Quoting Lock
the higher it goes the bigger the opportunity to sell: the only thing that can avoid a huge liquidation is something extraordinary like a success above major timeframe trendline. For this to happen we should have some huge shift in value into current market. Otherwise if it test and fail (higher timeframe like weekly or monthly) that trendline, we will have a substantial liquidation downside.
from 3385 (preUS high) it liquidated down to 3317 (Pit low), obviously removing poor buyers at 3336. And that's what happened today.

The problem is I still do not see a clear test of higher timeframes (D, W, M) major trendline: I'm not saying it has to do it, I'm saying that a test of it can provide us a bigger and more secure opportunity to sell. And btw I'm starting to think at the remote possibility to actually break that trendline: anyhow, let's see tomorrow. Have a nice continuation.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,846
  • Dec 1, 2020 12:21am Dec 1, 2020 12:21am
I have 1.33362 as the value area for today.

Let's see how price reacts when it gets there.
  • #7,847
  • Dec 1, 2020 12:45am Dec 1, 2020 12:45am
Again, good opportunity here:
we saw yesterday, the last day of November, GB establishing a poor low at 3305 and Pit a poor low at 33165 (then tagged and further weakened by Sydney low). After all this we saw Tokyo rallying higher without any correction downside all night long, toward a retest of m30 yearly major timeframe.

So in my opinion we have 3 options here:

  1. a continuation upside and a serious test and failure of higher timeframes (above 3400 ? d, w, m?) major trendline, followed by a sharp liquidation downside removing at least GB and Pit poor lows;
  2. an immediate correction downside without testing higher timeframes (above 3400 ? d, w, m?) major trendline and then a serious test of it (then option 1);
  3. a successful test of higher timeframes (above 3400 ? d, w, m?) major trendline and continuation upside (very very significant market switch against current odds)

Major refs are for GB :

  1. 3397 GB Nov high
  2. 33765 GB highest close of Nov
  3. 3351 GB weekly open
  4. 3338 GB Nov close
  5. 33285 GB prev week open
  6. 3305 GB yes PL
  7. 32975 GB inside weak breakeven
  8. 32925 GB gap upside base

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,848
  • Dec 1, 2020 1:15am Dec 1, 2020 1:15am
Tokyo testing major trendline in H4 timeframe. (3389?) It's monthly test, at least in my chart: watch out!!!
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,849
  • Dec 1, 2020 1:20am Dec 1, 2020 1:20am
And 3397 GB Nov high with absolute preUS Nove high just 1 pip above it...
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,850
  • Dec 1, 2020 1:21am Dec 1, 2020 1:21am
We can be in option 1 or 3: see initial post. Watch out. Something major is going to happen.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,851
  • Dec 1, 2020 1:51am Dec 1, 2020 1:51am
On a bigger perspective.

  1. If option 3 (against odds?): 2020 high test (GB 3466, Pit 3473, PreUS absolute 3482) or 3700 deep valley or 4380 (2018 high) or total switch to higher poc 5600 (as incredible as it may sound right now.)
  2. If option 1: back to the mean, current major poc downside 2935

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,852
  • Dec 1, 2020 1:54am Dec 1, 2020 1:54am
GB is going to open with a new gap upside from yesterday GB high 3364: take note of it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,853
  • Dec 1, 2020 2:01am Dec 1, 2020 2:01am
A test of 2019 high (GB 34295), is still to be considered as for option 2 if no continuation upside (total liquidation) while Sydney 2019 absolute high 35145 will be clearly too high to be considered as a failure (as it is also above 2020 highs 3466, 3473 and 3482)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,854
  • Dec 1, 2020 2:05am Dec 1, 2020 2:05am
Clear test of absolute trendline: testing Nov GB high 3397
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,855
  • Dec 1, 2020 2:15am Dec 1, 2020 2:15am
... .... .... can we proclaim it as a .... failure?? If so you want to see the new gap upside filled as quick as possible and you want to gain acceptation below it (3364). If not watch out as it could be not over yet.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,856
  • Dec 1, 2020 2:18am Dec 1, 2020 2:18am
33765 highest GB Nov close: acceptation below it needed for serious failure upside confirmation
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,857
  • Dec 1, 2020 2:28am Dec 1, 2020 2:28am
Quoting Lock
33765 highest GB Nov close: acceptation below it needed for serious failure upside confirmation
it bounced exactly at it: not a good sign for a "successful" failure upside!
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,858
  • Dec 1, 2020 2:30am Dec 1, 2020 2:30am
Quoting Lock
{quote} it bounced exactly at it: not a good sign for a "successful" failure upside!
back again to 3397 Nov GB high
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,859
  • Dec 1, 2020 2:54am Dec 1, 2020 2:54am
B low at half back
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,860
  • Dec 1, 2020 2:55am Dec 1, 2020 2:55am
and poor high...
Ubi maior minor cessat
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