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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,541
  • Nov 27, 2020 9:17am Nov 27, 2020 9:17am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Hi Al, the RRR looked attractive for a short trade considering that wedge pattern and divergence. But it didn't work out. I still think that wedge pattern will get resolved to the down side at some point. But it might be difficult to get the timing right, unless we wait for a clear break of the lower TL. {image}
i really dont know what going to stop NU.. im looking on daily chart.. and im like... what? next R on monthly 0.715.. guess this where it going to stop this endless trend
  • #9,542
  • Nov 27, 2020 9:18am Nov 27, 2020 9:18am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,543
  • Edited 10:46am Nov 27, 2020 9:34am | Edited 10:46am
Quoting C-12
{quote} I have been attempting to go counter on UJ for weeks, and mostly getting BE and small profits solely due to playing off good levels. But still. Staying with the trend is something I need to fix in my game. This is always going to be simpler and more rewarding in the end.
Yea, sometimes it's clear other times not so much. Look at all those levels that can provide support. You can't really tell if it bounces off those levels or slices through them. The key is to trade with a high RRR regardless of the directional bias.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,544
  • Nov 27, 2020 9:37am Nov 27, 2020 9:37am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} i really dont know what going to stop NU.. im looking on daily chart.. and im like... what? next R on monthly 0.715.. guess this where it going to stop this endless trend
The kiwi is heading to the moon and beyond
  • #9,545
  • Nov 27, 2020 9:41am Nov 27, 2020 9:41am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The kiwi is heading to the moon and beyond
AUDUSD - 0.74? Surely scalp worthy at least here.
  • #9,546
  • Nov 27, 2020 9:53am Nov 27, 2020 9:53am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDJPY, short trade update. note the rejection at confluence of S/R, Fib 0.38, and W.P. Possible long setup on the chart {image}
UJ daily view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,547
  • Nov 27, 2020 11:15am Nov 27, 2020 11:15am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, 1.33 is an important level. Let's see how it plays out {image}
GBPUSD, short trade. Possible long setup @ 1.33
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4 4567trt.png Size: 41 KB
  • #9,548
  • Nov 27, 2020 11:31am Nov 27, 2020 11:31am
EURUSD, we had a short setup @ 1.1950, I'm waiting to see a favorable pa to short it. Or if it goes higher, a retest of that TL on the opposite side may provide a short setup. Let's see how it plays out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,549
  • Nov 27, 2020 11:35am Nov 27, 2020 11:35am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, short trade. Possible long setup @ 1.33 {image} {image}
Something feels off about this GU, it is a good area for a top to form. Not very convincing PA but I am in a similar sell as you. I think this will not go cleanly.

If it takes out 1.33 then opens up 1.3250 @ 50% - Looks likely this is going to 1.37 sooner or later.

Scalp off AU 0.74
Attached Image
  • #9,550
  • Nov 27, 2020 11:41am Nov 27, 2020 11:41am
EURGBP, possible short setup @ 0.90
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  • #9,551
  • Nov 27, 2020 11:43am Nov 27, 2020 11:43am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Something feels off about this GU, it is a good area for a top to form. Not very convincing PA but I am in a similar sell as you. I think this will not go cleanly. If it takes out 1.33 then opens up 1.3250 @ 50% Scalp off AU 0.74 {image}
Well, EU and GU are moving in completely different directions today. At some point their positive correlation will come back. So the next move will be either EU going down or GU going up. I think the latter is more likely. Let's see.
  • #9,552
  • Nov 27, 2020 11:46am Nov 27, 2020 11:46am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Well, EU and GU are moving in completely different directions today. At some point their positive correlation will come back.
This seems like a good time to sharpen up on scalping (25-50 pip moves) and range play.

I need to clear the deck next week of all the crosses.
  • #9,553
  • Nov 27, 2020 11:52am Nov 27, 2020 11:52am
Quoting C-12
{quote} This seems like a good time to sharpen up on scalping (25-50 pip moves) and range play.
Usually in DEC we see nonsense one way moves without respecting S/R levels. Just a heads-up if these levels perform poorly next month. Then we need to switch to different techniques.
  • #9,554
  • Nov 27, 2020 11:56am Nov 27, 2020 11:56am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Usually in DEC we see nonsense one way moves without respecting S/R levels. Just a heads-up if these levels perform poorly next month. Then we need to switch to different techniques.
I have realised this week I've been playing a trend strategy in rangebound conditions. It's not efficient or acceptable to allow 30-50-80 pip profits to come back and hit BE.

Of course there is also small losses in the mix so it's even more important to put those points in the bag.

December can be a tricky month to trade from memory, especially around the holiday period we have seen some black swan flash crash type of moves due to low liquidity.
  • #9,555
  • Edited 12:19pm Nov 27, 2020 12:00pm | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I have realised this week I've been playing a trend strategy in rangebound conditions. It's not efficient or acceptable to allow 30-50-80 pip profits to come back and hit BE.
Well, trading confluence levels work well in both range/irregular market and slightly trending market. They don't work if the trend is fast and vertical. They are good for 50-100 pips. For more than that we need to ride a swing trade. And there hasn't been any significant one in the last 2 weeks.
  • #9,556
  • Nov 27, 2020 12:16pm Nov 27, 2020 12:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, possible short setup @ 0.74 and long setups @ 0.72 and 0.7150 {image}
AUDUSD, short trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,557
  • Nov 27, 2020 12:17pm Nov 27, 2020 12:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, we had a short setup @ 1.1950, I'm waiting to see a favorable pa to short it. Or if it goes higher, a retest of that TL on the opposite side may provide a short setup. Let's see how it plays out. {image}
EURUSD HTF view
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  • #9,558
  • Nov 27, 2020 12:40pm Nov 27, 2020 12:40pm
I sold the kiwi again based on the exact setup I did in the morning. This time on H1 instead of H4. Let's see how it plays out this time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,559
  • Nov 27, 2020 12:46pm Nov 27, 2020 12:46pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Similar story on EURNZD - spotted the 61.8 at 1.71 and the PA and took a hedge sell Lower buys hit for BE now. I was possibly too invested in NZDUSD 0.70 and took a small hit on it. {image}
Do you still have that EURNZD long trade?
  • #9,560
  • Nov 27, 2020 12:49pm Nov 27, 2020 12:49pm
GBPJPY, short trade update, tp @ 136.50. Someone said :"squeeze the orange as long as you can".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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