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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,521
  • Nov 27, 2020 5:24am Nov 27, 2020 5:24am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, it was really a toss up. You want to look for high probability trades with small SL and high RRR {image}
NZDUSD, this wedge pattern will get resolved, but the the timing for a short trade will be important.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4 11276.png Size: 34 KB
  • #9,522
  • Nov 27, 2020 5:32am Nov 27, 2020 5:32am
USDCHF, possible short trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH4. 1127png.png Size: 33 KB
  • #9,523
  • Nov 27, 2020 5:40am Nov 27, 2020 5:40am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, this wedge pattern will get resolved, but the the timing for a short trade will be important. {image}
I went short on NZDUSD
  • #9,524
  • Nov 27, 2020 5:43am Nov 27, 2020 5:43am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I went short on NZDUSD
NZDUSD, short trade, sl above 0.7030
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4 11275.png Size: 31 KB
  • #9,525
  • Nov 27, 2020 5:55am Nov 27, 2020 5:55am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} You may have a long setup there @ 80. But as C-12 mentioned, you need to watch the reaction {image}
CADJPY long trade. It turned out it wanted 0.50 Fib retracement and that demand zone. I went in after the bounce. The entry is less than ideal. It has to clear above that TL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH4 11278.png Size: 31 KB
  • #9,526
  • Nov 27, 2020 6:17am Nov 27, 2020 6:17am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 35 KB
  • #9,527
  • Nov 27, 2020 6:26am Nov 27, 2020 6:26am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, short trade, sl above 0.7030 {image}
NZDUSD, short trade update. If we get a 20 pips drop from the entry, I will move sl to b/e. This is a counter trend trade. There is higher risk of failure compared to trades in the direction of the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4 112346.png Size: 31 KB
  • #9,528
  • Nov 27, 2020 7:06am Nov 27, 2020 7:06am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I went short on NZDUSD
Great to have some expert company. I was feeling kind of lonely there.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,529
  • Nov 27, 2020 7:31am Nov 27, 2020 7:31am
Quoting C-12
USDJPY - Cut my long for a couple of pips. This is the level I am interested in and I might need to put in a late shift to catch it. {image}
Got my orders in, but there's a fair bit of overhead here to plough through.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ1.PNG Size: 54 KB
  • #9,530
  • Nov 27, 2020 7:32am Nov 27, 2020 7:32am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, short trade update. If we get a 20 pips drop from the entry, I will move sl to b/e. This is a counter trend trade. There is higher risk of failure compared to trades in the direction of the trend. {image}
This one might win the grinder of decade award.

How about this one... 3 days and counting. Patience is wearing thin.. I may have to take an axe to this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD.PNG Size: 28 KB
  • #9,531
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:28am Nov 27, 2020 8:28am
Looks like pairs vs USD want to go up for a longer term.
  • #9,532
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:37am Nov 27, 2020 8:37am
Quoting Techanalyst
Looks like pairs vs USD want to go up for a longer term.
Yes, trying to get on the long side this week on anything USD has proven to be a fairly fruitless effort unless quick 30-50 pips scalping.
  • #9,533
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:39am Nov 27, 2020 8:39am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, short trade, sl above 0.7030 {image}
Stopped out
  • #9,534
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:43am Nov 27, 2020 8:43am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY short looks interesting. {image}
USDJPY, short trade update. note the rejection at confluence of S/R, Fib 0.38, and W.P. Possible long setup on the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1 3452.png Size: 38 KB
  • #9,535
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:48am Nov 27, 2020 8:48am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDJPY, short trade update. note the rejection at confluence of S/R, Fib 0.38, and W.P. Possible long setup on the chart {image}
Yes, I closed out all my UJ counter longs and took that one. Given the movement across the USD pairs, that was a no brainer to wrap up this week.

That hold you did with that sell was excellent, granite levels of discipline.
  • #9,536
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:49am Nov 27, 2020 8:49am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Great to have some expert company. I was feeling kind of lonely there.
Hi Al, the RRR looked attractive for a short trade considering that wedge pattern and divergence. But it didn't work out. I still think that wedge pattern will get resolved to the down side at some point. But it might be difficult to get the timing right, unless we wait for a clear break of the lower TL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4 114234.png Size: 30 KB
  • #9,537
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:52am Nov 27, 2020 8:52am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Hi Al, the RRR looked attractive for a short trade considering that wedge pattern and divergence. But it didn't work out. I still think that wedge pattern will get resolved to the down side at some point. But it might be difficult to get the timing right, unless we wait for a clear break of the lower TL. {image}
if the current candle closes above bearish pin, it's a bullish sign.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #9,538
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:55am Nov 27, 2020 8:55am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes, I closed out all my UJ counter longs and took that one. Given the movement across the USD pairs, that was a no brainer to wrap up this week. That hold you did with that sell was excellent, granite levels of discipline.
You know I have this long term bearish bias on USDJPY. I think that bearish pattern seems incomplete. But maybe it needs to go higher first before going down again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily 12345.png Size: 37 KB
  • #9,539
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:58am Nov 27, 2020 8:58am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} if the current candle closes above bearish pin, it's a bullish sign.
Yea that bearish pin bar got me.
  • #9,540
  • Nov 27, 2020 8:59am Nov 27, 2020 8:59am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} You know I have this long term bearish bias on USDJPY. I think that bearish pattern seems incomplete. But maybe it needs to go higher first before going down again. {image}
I have been attempting to go counter on UJ for weeks, and mostly getting BE and small profits solely due to playing off good levels.

But still. Staying with the trend is something I need to fix in my game. This is always going to be simpler and more rewarding in the end.
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