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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,461
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:54am Nov 26, 2020 5:54am
wick everywhere.. USDCAD
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  • #9,462
  • Nov 26, 2020 5:56am Nov 26, 2020 5:56am
Quoting C-12
EURJPY - long term bull, short term bear. Levels below. This could even get back down to 103.50 {image}
I hope you did a partial tp after a 150 pips move
  • #9,463
  • Nov 26, 2020 6:04am Nov 26, 2020 6:04am
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  • #9,464
  • Nov 26, 2020 6:05am Nov 26, 2020 6:05am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I hope you did a partial tp after a 150 pips move
Thankfully this time I did. That lower entry let's call that a vanity position as there's not really much size left on it.

Thoughts on NZDUSD 0.70? Are we being given the run around off this level? I am very tempted to run that one back again even after yesterday's hit.
  • #9,465
  • Nov 26, 2020 6:08am Nov 26, 2020 6:08am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Thankfully this time I did. That lower entry let's call that a vanity position as there's not really much size left on it. Thoughts on NZDUSD 0.70? Are we being given the run around off this level? I am very tempted to run that one back again even after yesterday's hit.
I think NU 0.70 is looking better now for another short try
  • #9,466
  • Nov 26, 2020 6:09am Nov 26, 2020 6:09am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I think NU 0.70 is looking better now for another short try
AUDNZD 1.05 looks like it's fresh out of the oven as well.
  • #9,467
  • Nov 26, 2020 6:15am Nov 26, 2020 6:15am
Quoting Inthebox
gj possible short set up {image}
Thanks for the call BTW. I was waiting to go short @ 140. But the setup looked solid.

Quoting shahab8b
GBPJPY, I don't know if anyone traded that confluence setup @ 137.50. Possible short setup @ 140 {image}
GBPJPY, short trade
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  • #9,468
  • Nov 26, 2020 6:31am Nov 26, 2020 6:31am
Quoting Inthebox
gj possible short set up {image}
test of level after trend line break
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #9,469
  • Nov 26, 2020 6:35am Nov 26, 2020 6:35am
Quoting meugampong
EU breaking wedge pattern.. {image}
You did a good job recognizing that wedge pattern.
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  • #9,470
  • Nov 26, 2020 6:52am Nov 26, 2020 6:52am
Took NU sell, yesterday @0.7. Forgot tripple swap. Took it for no reason, I really do not see any.
Technically it is extremely bullish and fundamentally NZ is like some oasis - almost no covid and enough self sufficent to maintain better life than most of the world.
I agree with shahab about 0.72 looking good to sell technically. There is nothing to stop it @0.71.

But Iīd still say - do not short NU.
Markets will move to the right.
  • #9,471
  • Nov 26, 2020 6:57am Nov 26, 2020 6:57am
Quoting FraterRedox
Took NU sell, yesterday @0.7. Forgot tripple swap. Took it for no reason, I really do not see any. Technically it is extremely bullish and fundamentally NZ is like some oasis - almost no covid and enough self sufficent to maintain better life than most of the world. I agree with shahab about 0.72 looking good to sell technically. There is nothing to stop it @0.71. But Iīd still say - do not short NU.
Did you take it on the first touch of 0.70. That was a decent trade. I usually don't trade the second touch when it is a counter trend trade. Unless there are other valid technical reasons.

For now that pattern on H1 is not very helpful. It can turn bearish or it can become a bullish flag. It's a toss up.
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  • #9,472
  • Nov 26, 2020 7:08am Nov 26, 2020 7:08am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Did you take it on the first touch of 0.70. That was a decent trade. I usually don't trade the second touch when it is a counter trend trade. Unless there are other valid technical reasons. For now that pattern on H1 is not very helpful. It turn bearish or it can become a bullish flag. It's a toss up. {image}
No, first was day before yesterday and had nice 50 pips. I wish it could do a jerk move to scare people out of longs, but I doubt it. I do not care ab fundamental much, but atm canīt ignore. Like I told I see NZ being fine in this covid world and their own currency against Europe and US unknown future, money printing etc...

Would be nice, but just a dream, I guess:

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My stop is 0.73, if not hit, I close tomorrow anyway.
Markets will move to the right.
  • #9,473
  • Edited 7:23am Nov 26, 2020 7:10am | Edited 7:23am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Did you take it on the first touch of 0.70. That was a decent trade. I usually don't trade the second touch when it is a counter trend trade. Unless there are other valid technical reasons. For now that pattern on H1 is not very helpful. It can turn bearish or it can become a bullish flag. It's a toss up. {image}
I see this setup as a straight play on the quality of the number being the 1,000 point level.

Going off topic, which bank or major institution would actually be buying on 0.70?

It is very likely they want to take the other side, but they need stop orders to accumulate around 0.70.

What is possibly going on is they are disguising order flow, creating small highs and then running over it again until they're fully loaded up.

Of course this is all purely speculation. Once it's ready to go we'll see it. Perhaps something like?
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  • #9,474
  • Nov 26, 2020 7:20am Nov 26, 2020 7:20am
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  • #9,475
  • Nov 26, 2020 7:45am Nov 26, 2020 7:45am
GBPUSD, monthly chart, possible trend change?
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  • #9,476
  • Nov 26, 2020 7:50am Nov 26, 2020 7:50am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, monthly chart, possible trend change? {image} {image}
I noticed EURUSD has also broken decade long TL and retested it.

However, some massive challenges for GBPUSD around the 1.37 area.
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  • #9,477
  • Nov 26, 2020 8:01am Nov 26, 2020 8:01am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, short trade. Who took this trade? raise your hand. {image}
GBPUSD, short trade update. The TL remains a challenge for the short trade. Let's see if it can break it. Possible long setup @ 1.33
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  • #9,478
  • Nov 26, 2020 8:25am Nov 26, 2020 8:25am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Any takers? {image}
test of level after trend line break.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #9,479
  • Nov 26, 2020 8:31am Nov 26, 2020 8:31am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} test of level after trend line break. {image}
Nicely done. I took you up on GJ 1.40
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  • #9,480
  • Nov 26, 2020 8:31am Nov 26, 2020 8:31am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Any takers? {image}
That was a great call you made on GBPCAD. It was a classic confluence setup. Unfortunately, I couldn't take it as I had many trades running.
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