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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #7,721
  • Nov 24, 2020 10:00am Nov 24, 2020 10:00am
Too risky for me: scaled out almost 3/4 of my long. It can continue higher but I do not like C elongation. It's me and I suggest to not decide basing upon my opinion: you must decide for yourselves.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,722
  • Nov 24, 2020 10:01am Nov 24, 2020 10:01am
I will re enter if I will see clear acceptation above at least 3356. Or if I will see some sort of correction of current C period.
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  • #7,723
  • Nov 24, 2020 10:03am Nov 24, 2020 10:03am
C and D highs at same level: poor high. Take note.
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  • #7,724
  • Nov 24, 2020 10:07am Nov 24, 2020 10:07am
Off for a while, see you later. Have a nice continuation. Take care.
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  • #7,725
  • Nov 24, 2020 12:09pm Nov 24, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting Lock
Too risky for me: scaled out almost 3/4 of my long. It can continue higher but I do not like C elongation. It's me and I suggest to not decide basing upon my opinion: you must decide for yourselves.
Quoting Lock
I will re enter if I will see clear acceptation above at least 3356. Or if I will see some sort of correction of current C period.
Quoting Lock
C and D highs at same level: poor high. Take note.
So it got no acceptation above 3356 (so btw I was right to scale out my longs) and it filled all the C period single letters (it was clearly too elongated)... but it left a very weak poor high at 3361.
Now, we are inside yesterday pit range, into balance, so it can remain in balance and do not attempt upside again. Or it can try it.

So let's put in the game an other market generated info: where is value in relation to yesterday pit value? It's enough to take action or is it better to stay aside?
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  • #7,726
  • Nov 24, 2020 12:11pm Nov 24, 2020 12:11pm
In any case it's too late for me, but consider previous post as a base to reason about your next move... if any.
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  • #7,727
  • Nov 24, 2020 12:12pm Nov 24, 2020 12:12pm
Quoting Lock
In any case it's too late for me, but consider previous post as a base to reason about your next move... if any.
Cheers mate for the notes and rest well
  • #7,728
  • Nov 25, 2020 12:58am Nov 25, 2020 12:58am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} {quote} So it got no acceptation above 3356 (so btw I was right to scale out my longs) and it filled all the C period single letters (it was clearly too elongated)... but it left a very weak poor high at 3361. Now, we are inside yesterday pit range, into balance, so it can remain in balance and do not attempt upside again. Or it can try it. So let's put in the game an other market generated info: where is value in relation to yesterday pit value? It's enough to take action or is it better to stay...
As written I did not take profit on that possible action as I went off: but it did it. It came up again to take out that poor high at 3361 and it managed to do so only because value was higher than previous pit session value. Without that market generated info a further attempt upside would have been extremely risky.

Btw it established a new pit poor high at 3365 only some pips above previous one (so take note). And closed at 3362, one single pip above that previous poor high...

Now, note Tokyo contained between 2 GB spike bases: 3381 (that is weak as it is a perfect tag made by yesterday GB session) and 3338 (yesterday GB spike base just tested by Tokyo). And note also our current price location: inside yesterday GB range and exactly at yesterday GB close 33485...
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  • #7,729
  • Nov 25, 2020 1:18am Nov 25, 2020 1:18am
I forgot to mention a fundamental info market provided us yesterday: pit session range 3302-3365 ended inside previous pit session range 32635-33835. So we are into a pit session balance: balance rules apply... Any attempt above 3365 or below 3302 has to be considered an attempted breakout from balance, on a daily scale.
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  • #7,730
  • Nov 25, 2020 1:59am Nov 25, 2020 1:59am
Quoting Lock
{quote}[..]... Now, note Tokyo contained between 2 GB spike bases: 3381 (that is weak as it is a perfect tag made by yesterday GB session) and 3338 (yesterday GB spike base just tested by Tokyo). And note also our current price location: inside yesterday GB range and exactly at yesterday GB close 33485...
note the perfect tests of 3381 upside and 3338 downside made by Tokyo session...
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  • #7,731
  • Nov 25, 2020 2:02am Nov 25, 2020 2:02am
Now 3381 and 3397 (current GB Nov high) are extremely weak: but do not forget that we are inside yesterday GB range and that above 3381 (10-20 pips?) we have the major yearly trend line
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  • #7,732
  • Nov 25, 2020 2:07am Nov 25, 2020 2:07am
3381 taken out: watch out now!
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  • #7,733
  • Nov 25, 2020 2:09am Nov 25, 2020 2:09am
Quoting Lock
3381 taken out: watch out now!
it can be a very sharp knife.. again watch out...
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  • #7,734
  • Nov 25, 2020 2:17am Nov 25, 2020 2:17am
Well, I made my profit in the last periods of Tokyo. It's a too risky location for me to trade for now. See you later. Maybe. Or tomorrow. Whatever the result (even an extraordinary attempt above major yearly trend line or a powerful liquidation failing at it) I prefer to trade with less emotions. Have a nice continuation.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,735
  • Nov 25, 2020 2:48am Nov 25, 2020 2:48am
Quoting Lock
Well, I made my profit in the last periods of Tokyo. It's a too risky location for me to trade for now. See you later. Maybe. Or tomorrow. Whatever the result (even an extraordinary attempt above major yearly trend line or a powerful liquidation failing at it) I prefer to trade with less emotions. Have a nice continuation.
I still expect the move to 1.3160 or slightly lower before any real up side attempt will be made.

Most of the buying done on Friday was accompanied by decreasing cumulative net volume. This in my opinion is a sign of weakness on the side of buyers. That's the reason I have been expecting the sell off.
  • #7,736
  • Edited 6:08pm Nov 25, 2020 5:52pm | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I still expect the move to 1.3160 or slightly lower before any real up side attempt will be made. Most of the buying done on Friday was accompanied by decreasing cumulative net volume. This in my opinion is a sign of weakness on the side of buyers. That's the reason I have been expecting the sell off.
Unfortunately the situation could not be solved yet. After GB liquidation pit session short covered inventories and manage somehow to close at 3387 above previous inside session high (3365) but instead of elongate above it it stalled and went into balance. Major yearly trend line is slightly above current price location, somewhere above 3400 (3407?) and this let us in the same situation we were before: a possible attempt to test the major trend line with a substantial risk of a major liquidation when and if it will be tested. And this was the reason I was not able to trade today.

When GB tested spike base 3381 (above it, not like previous GB session that only tagged it) that was a clear spot to sell: in a normal situation. But the price location was too risky for me because at any moment in time someone could have decided to attempt a fast test upside toward major trend line, eventually taking my stops out. So I waited until evening to see if pit was able to test of its own that notorious trend line giving us space to trade with more calm the next day... And instead pit didn't manage to test it again, leaving us in the exact same situation of this morning. Will be Sydney or Tokyo so aggressive to test it until tomorrow morning? I don't know. But if they will not, probably I will be forced to skip also tomorrow GB session.

You speak about Friday cumulative volume as a possible sign of weaknesses of buyers but they have been clearly totally weak for weeks as structure left downside is an unequivocal complaint of it and anyone here is expecting a major liquidation as a real substantial possibility. The problem is that we went too close to that notorious trend line and without a serious test of it any liquidation, from this price location, can be reverted too easily and too quickly for us to manage our short positions: those who sold today with GB have been very lucky to not have been retraced by pit in a stronger way, giving them time to close their shorts.

Then you speak about a liquidation toward 3160 before any attempt upside: it's very possible to go down to 3160 but this will mean to go again below Pit October inside month high 31765 and below GB inside week low 31655 and such a move will need a lot of participation to occur. It cannot be performed by weak sellers.

Conclusions: if we will not see a clear test of major trend line any attempt downside will be very risky but, anyhow, this can happen. If it will happen I will decide to follow it only if I will see some more signals that will indicate me the participation of stronger sellers. For instance if I will see value moving downside.
If instead someone will finally perform some sort of trend line test, at that moment in time any attempt downside will see me with it (obviously always taking the market a piece at a time, meaning finding acceptation below the major levels we will find going downside, step by step)

PS: always have an alternative plan. Even if structure downside is astonishing ugly and we have not seen any serious buyer for weeks nobody can exclude with absolute certainty that the trendline will not be broken. In such a remote possibility obviously we will be put in front of a very significant switch in thinking eventually attempting a rally from current yearly balance to the upper yearly balance. It's a very remote possibility but who knows?
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,737
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:21am Nov 26, 2020 2:21am
Did it test it? Not clear...

33765 yes GB close
3370 yes GB open
acceptation above or below them as a first info to consider.
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  • #7,738
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:25am Nov 26, 2020 2:25am
and GB opened inside yesterday GB range 3304-33845: balance at least initially expected.
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  • #7,739
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:29am Nov 26, 2020 2:29am
Current Nov high 3398 is very weak and poor as it is made by GB 11.23 high, tagged by preUS 22.13 high, tagged by tonight Tokyo poor high: it remains a problem as it is at the trendline. How can it correct that poor and weak high without violate the line??
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  • #7,740
  • Nov 26, 2020 2:31am Nov 26, 2020 2:31am
And that trend line has different locations if you consider Monthly, weekly, daily or minor timeframes (as always when a trendline spans for years)
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