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NFP and rumors around

  • #121
  • Nov 4, 2006 7:07am Nov 4, 2006 7:07am
Quoting hans_gregor
The problem is that NFP had revisions all the time. I saw BLS reports where the actual number was revised three consecutive months (ie August revised in Sept, Oct and Nov). I have not done an analysis, but it seems that only in the past two or three months, the revisions are more important than the actual number.

That's because the big players change the rules all the time to screw the small players. Think about it, if it was straight thinking all the time, everyone would make money on this report and banks/brokers would lose a packet. By altering the way the market reacts, big players put confusion in the mind of smaller players. Confusion creates panic, and panic results in bad decisions and loss of funds. No one used to focus so much on revisions of NFP; once traders adapt to the whipsaw that it causes, the big players will change market reaction again.

This is what I am thinking as a strategy for next NFP:

1. Straddle 25 pips from market price some 5-10 seconds before news. Looks wide but when you think GBP fell some 100 pips you would still be up +75 pips. And you will not get caught in the fake out.

2.If entering market order, wait for initial spike to reverse before entering.

Thoughts anyone???
  • #122
  • Nov 4, 2006 7:21am Nov 4, 2006 7:21am
Quoting PipStar
That's because the big players change the rules all the time to screw the small players. Think about it, if it was straight thinking all the time, everyone would make money on this report and banks/brokers would lose a packet. By altering the way the market reacts, big players put confusion in the mind of smaller players. Confusion creates panic, and panic results in bad decisions and loss of funds. No one used to focus so much on revisions of NFP; once traders adapt to the whipsaw that it causes, the big players will change market reaction again.

This is what I am thinking as a strategy for next NFP:

1. Straddle 25 pips from market price some 5-10 seconds before news. Looks wide but when you think GBP fell some 100 pips you would still be up +75 pips. And you will not get caught in the fake out.

2.If entering market order, wait for initial spike to reverse before entering.

Thoughts anyone???
This news was absolutly manipoluted.

No wonder in london you see so many Ferrari

dont play the news people
  • #123
  • Nov 4, 2006 7:55am Nov 4, 2006 7:55am
Quoting trucco
This news was absolutly manipoluted.

No wonder in london you see so many Ferrari

dont play the news people
But I see more Private Jets and Yatchs in USA...
  • #124
  • Nov 4, 2006 8:29am Nov 4, 2006 8:29am
Quoting BurgerKing
But I see more Private Jets and Yatchs in USA...
I know what you mean
  • #125
  • Nov 4, 2006 8:43am Nov 4, 2006 8:43am
Quoting PipStar

.....a strategy for next NFP:

Thoughts anyone???
yeah, go visit your favorite bar, sip a couple beers & watch all the pretty girls walk by........or guy's - whatever your taste

a lot less stressful & infinitely more rewarding!

come back Monday when all the shit has dripped off the fan & pick up the flow from there?!

coz you can bet your bottom $, over the mid-term, there's only one net winner on the back of sharp data releases!
  • #126
  • Nov 4, 2006 10:15am Nov 4, 2006 10:15am
next stradegy? umm.. flip a coin and heads bull, tails bear.

Its taht or revisit past numbers, read bloomberg, look at past YEARS charts, understand what is coming into the numbers, is the market bear or bull, understand what you want to position into your trades and click away.

For me i am still under the impression that the dollar is usually bull during holiday seasons, with what BK said in his charts and the several books i read (skimmed), they usually point towards bull dollar. Of course i will have a stop loss up when placing my order, but with a fast market, there will be volitility, sippages and late fills (kinda the norm for news traders). Even straddling doesnt seem to work with NFP, well, straddle with 20-25 can be dangerous, as seen in this past NFP with a whipsaw and last months report + revisions created the mother of all whipsaws, anything can happen. Market orders, forget that, by the time you place the order, the market has alread moved, GL with this one, its basically a gamble anyway you look at it. Small positions with small leverage with analyists views and praier can only bring you fortune during NFP.

I cant spell btw, ^_^
  • #127
  • Nov 4, 2006 9:02pm Nov 4, 2006 9:02pm
Quoting mbadrick
Fairly new to trading the news but have been doing OK – 7 trades – 5 wins, 1 lose and 1 zero. Tweaked my system ready for NFP yesterday and entered a short on EUR/USD at 1.2771 with a S/L at 1.2796. The hi was 1.2791 and that was where Oanda stopped me out!!!!! – 5pips short of my S/L/

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Mark
Mark,

Oanda's price on chart is median price which is (Bid+Ask)/2. During NFP, Oanda's spread for EUR/USD was 10pips. This means you were very unlucky that your stop lost was the turning point of the spike (1.2791+5pips long spread.)

Hoh
  • #128
  • Edited Nov 5, 2006 4:58am Nov 4, 2006 9:19pm | Edited Nov 5, 2006 4:58am
Quoting PipStar
This is what I am thinking as a strategy for next NFP:

1. Straddle 25 pips from market price some 5-10 seconds before news. Looks wide but when you think GBP fell some 100 pips you would still be up +75 pips. And you will not get caught in the fake out.

2.If entering market order, wait for initial spike to reverse before entering.

Thoughts anyone???
I'm using first method to trade NFP. But for last Friday, I straddled with 45pips because I was stressful before NFP. However I swing trade NFP and not scalping so it's ok for me.

I've done my research on 2 years' NFPs and found that if there were spikes, 15pips - 20pips would be usual case. Occasionally there were 30, 40 and 50 pips. The most I could see was 70pips spike in year 2004.
(EDIT: I mean fake spikes)

This means if I straddle with 20-30 pips I must work out my plan very well and monitor NFP very closely during release time. Now since I switch to swing trade I need only confirmed direction so I use 40-50pips (inclusive of spreads.)

Anyway, I think spike is usually adapted by broker who knows his customers' (traders) stop/limit orders. I say this because I saw Oanda's spike was 1.9103 (median price, not includes 10pips spread) and Alpari's bid was 1.9117 on last Friday's NFP.

Hoh
  • #129
  • Nov 4, 2006 9:50pm Nov 4, 2006 9:50pm
Quoting hoh
Anyway, I think spike is usually adapted by broker who knows his customers' (traders) stop/limit orders. I say this because I saw Oanda's spike was 1.9103 (median price, not includes 10pips spread) and Alpari's bid was 1.9117 on last Friday's NFP.
Hoh

You are right. Some brokers did not spike as high the fake out while others did. You can tell that those who spiked the highest for the fake move are the stop hunters brokers. Check the charts with a few brokers and you will see.

As an example the fake move was smaller on IBFX and FXSol charts. High of 1.9093 on GBP.

But they are bigger on FXDD and Oanda charts. High of 1.9106 and 1.9103 respectively on GBP. Enough said.
  • #130
  • Nov 4, 2006 10:08pm Nov 4, 2006 10:08pm
Quoting BurgerKing
But I see more Private Jets and Yatchs in USA...
Thats because of greed!!!
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #131
  • Nov 5, 2006 12:37am Nov 5, 2006 12:37am
Quoting PipStar
You are right. Some brokers did not spike as high the fake out while others did. You can tell that those who spiked the highest for the fake move are the stop hunters brokers. Check the charts with a few brokers and you will see.

As an example the fake move was smaller on IBFX and FXSol charts. High of 1.9093 on GBP.

But they are bigger on FXDD and Oanda charts. High of 1.9106 and 1.9103 respectively on GBP. Enough said.
The fake spike was 9115 with FXCM.

But odd.. When i initially updated the historic chart, I was surprised that no spike was shown. But I was fortunate to still have the Live Feed running and posted that version instead.

Question:
SHOULD I have a short order with FXCM and the fake spike caused it to stopped out, CAN I use their "watered down" chart as evidence against them for the stop? Not that I did have a short position though.
  • #132
  • Nov 5, 2006 2:54am Nov 5, 2006 2:54am
Quoting hoh
Mark,

Oanda's price on chart is median price which is (Bid+Ask)/2. During NFP, Oanda's spread for EUR/USD was 10pips. This means you were very unlucky that your stop lost was the turning point of the spike (1.2791+5pips long spread.)

Hoh
Oanda's spread was 25 pips during the NFP.
  • #133
  • Nov 5, 2006 3:51am Nov 5, 2006 3:51am
Quoting hoh
I've done my research on 2 years' NFPs and found that if there were spikes, 15pips - 20pips would be usual case. Occasionally there were 30, 40 and 50 pips. The most I could see was 70pips spike in year 2004.
No disrespect here but how are you doing your analysis? I've been trading for the last 4 years and still distinctly remember aug'04 nfp when the market was exdpecting 240 and it came out 32. Cable gapped up two big figures. There hasn't been >1% gap like that since then
  • #134
  • Nov 5, 2006 4:37am Nov 5, 2006 4:37am
Quoting PipStar
You are right. Some brokers did not spike as high the fake out while others did. You can tell that those who spiked the highest for the fake move are the stop hunters brokers. Check the charts with a few brokers and you will see.

As an example the fake move was smaller on IBFX and FXSol charts. High of 1.9093 on GBP.

But they are bigger on FXDD and Oanda charts. High of 1.9106 and 1.9103 respectively on GBP. Enough said.
Quoting BurgerKing
The fake spike was 9115 with FXCM.

But odd.. When i initially updated the historic chart, I was surprised that no spike was shown. But I was fortunate to still have the Live Feed running and posted that version instead.
Interesting... so much different in pips. I'm thinking maybe I should do my research based on my live account's chart and not demo's.

Quoting BurgerKing
Question:
SHOULD I have a short order with FXCM and the fake spike caused it to stopped out, CAN I use their "watered down" chart as evidence against them for the stop? Not that I did have a short position though.
I don't know, I have had no experience. No harm to try if this happens.
  • #135
  • Nov 5, 2006 4:40am Nov 5, 2006 4:40am
Quoting Hidhadows
Oanda's spread was 25 pips during the NFP.
Really that large?

I'm trading cable at that time so I didn't know the real-time spread for EUR. I got the figure from Oanda's spread website. Now I checked back the website and found that I was wrong because the chart showed 15pips spread.
  • #136
  • Nov 5, 2006 4:41am Nov 5, 2006 4:41am
Quoting sccz97
No disrespect here but how are you doing your analysis? I've been trading for the last 4 years and still distinctly remember aug'04 nfp when the market was exdpecting 240 and it came out 32. Cable gapped up two big figures. There hasn't been >1% gap like that since then
I'm sorry if I made some confusions. I meant false spike or whipsaw in my previous post.

I don't get your last sentence though...
  • #137
  • Nov 5, 2006 4:45am Nov 5, 2006 4:45am
Quoting BurgerKing
The fake spike was 9115 with FXCM.

But odd.. When i initially updated the historic chart, I was surprised that no spike was shown. But I was fortunate to still have the Live Feed running and posted that version instead.
This seems to be the highest spike of all brokers. It just shows that this is what FXCM does best, that is stop hunting.
  • #138
  • Nov 5, 2006 4:48am Nov 5, 2006 4:48am
g f t was perfect this NFP

but o a n d a crapped it self and went down for about 30-45mins they had major issue a lot of other people i know had problems I had trades open with no stops and there is no way you can close the trade over the phone even I realised.. time for me to move that's for sure..

fxsol were very bad and gave the entry but woudl not allow to exit the trade they took about 20 pips of profits after got onto the fone

fxlq didn't fill the order even. and it took them 2 mins to reject it
  • #139
  • Edited 3:56pm Nov 5, 2006 6:46am | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting hoh
Interesting... so much different in pips. I'm thinking maybe I should do my research based on my live account's chart and not demo's.
You misunderstood me. I have been using FXCM real/live account for the historic charts lately.

When I said Live Feed, i was referring to the chart as I receive it in Real Time. Attached are 3 different charts, all from the same Live Account:
Real Time chart has 9115 spike.
Not Real Time taken 45 minutes after NFP - no spike.
Not Real Time taken 2 days after NFP showing a smaller spike of 9106.
Attached Image
  • #140
  • Nov 5, 2006 7:52am Nov 5, 2006 7:52am
Quoting banwait333
g f t was perfect this NFP

but o a n d a crapped it self and went down for about 30-45mins they had major issue a lot of other people i know had problems I had trades open with no stops and there is no way you can close the trade over the phone even I realised.. time for me to move that's for sure..

fxsol were very bad and gave the entry but woudl not allow to exit the trade they took about 20 pips of profits after got onto the fone

fxlq didn't fill the order even. and it took them 2 mins to reject it
Was you using market orders with fxsol.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
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