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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,181
  • Nov 20, 2020 4:21am Nov 20, 2020 4:21am
EURUSD got rejected again at the same supply zone. I was waiting for 1.19 to short it. Let's see if we get a change today.
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  • #9,182
  • Nov 20, 2020 4:22am Nov 20, 2020 4:22am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm thinking about shorting the Cable, lets see how it unfolds.
my view sir.. i think falling channel appears.. i take a risk to short.
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  • #9,183
  • Nov 20, 2020 4:35am Nov 20, 2020 4:35am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDJPY, short trade in line with the larger bearish bias. {image}
USDJPY, short trade update. I'm trying to be patient with this trade. There is a possible long setup @ 103-103.20 as a counter trend play
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  • #9,184
  • Nov 20, 2020 4:40am Nov 20, 2020 4:40am
Quoting meugampong
{quote} my view sir.. i think falling channel appears.. i take a risk to short. {image}
good idea, but i think the main problem is the 4h, yesterday we saw 1h break down and stop at 1.32
looking for the false break on h4 for a new weekly high and better h4 will close back in the range.
  • #9,185
  • Nov 20, 2020 5:02am Nov 20, 2020 5:02am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} good idea, but i think the main problem is the 4h, yesterday we saw 1h break down and stop at 1.32 looking for the false break on h4 for a new weekly high and better h4 will close back in the range.
yesterday and asian session today very emotional whipsaw huh.. what i see is.. stop hunt playing his role sir..
then, what DXY is a good clue for usd and ready to north..
for usd pair, i think the main problem right now only timing the entry in the best price
sorry my word if not good.
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  • #9,186
  • Nov 20, 2020 5:37am Nov 20, 2020 5:37am
EURJPY, possible short setups
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  • #9,187
  • Nov 20, 2020 5:45am Nov 20, 2020 5:45am
Quoting C-12
EURUSD - Possible intraday long setup to take up to 1.19. It might not get there. {image} {image}
Bit of a grinder of a day, let's see if we get our 1.19 from here.
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  • #9,188
  • Nov 20, 2020 5:50am Nov 20, 2020 5:50am
Quoting C-12
CHFJPY - Another JPY cross that looks like it's almost ready to cook. Nice sweep of lows at 1.14 with PA developing. Will revisit for next week. EURUSD - Possible intraday long setup to take up to 1.19. It might not get there. {image} {image}
I took this EU long trade based on your setup. You're very good at spotting these routine setups.
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  • #9,189
  • Nov 20, 2020 5:53am Nov 20, 2020 5:53am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I took this EU long trade based on your setup. You're very good at spotting these routine setups. {image}
These little fractal levels are quite nice indeed. Let's hope this plays out as it's Friday and volume sometimes crumble after NY.

Got add on EURJPY.. another slow burner this one.
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  • #9,190
  • Nov 20, 2020 6:23am Nov 20, 2020 6:23am
EURUSD - We now have fresh H1 demand zone. Any sells off 1.19 will likely need TP right on here.

I think this is then heading higher.
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  • #9,191
  • Nov 20, 2020 6:27am Nov 20, 2020 6:27am
Fantastic trade ideas on this thread !!!

Possible triangle on the Cable, if confirmed and break upside, possible target around 1.3325, perfect area for stop hunt and reverse. But pay attention, the volume looks to high for a triangle
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  • #9,192
  • Nov 20, 2020 7:15am Nov 20, 2020 7:15am
NU short, based on the rising wedge on 4h that great @shahab8b post earlier.
my d1 chart nothing to add more then that i need to zoom out the maximum to see the R
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  • #9,193
  • Nov 20, 2020 7:39am Nov 20, 2020 7:39am
Quoting gatenio
NU short, based on the rising wedge on 4h that great @shahab8b post earlier. my d1 chart nothing to add more then that i need to zoom out the maximum to see the R {image}
I zoomed in on big TF. I´m scared to take NU short atm, it might close bullish this week.

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Markets will move to the right.
  • #9,194
  • Nov 20, 2020 7:51am Nov 20, 2020 7:51am
Quoting FraterRedox
{quote} I zoomed in on big TF. I´m scared to take NU short atm, it might close bullish this week. {image}
Have no fear. The 0.5RN is here.
Attached Image
  • #9,195
  • Nov 20, 2020 7:52am Nov 20, 2020 7:52am
Quoting FraterRedox
{quote} I zoomed in on big TF. I´m scared to take NU short atm, it might close bullish this week. {image}
right, price action look bullish as hell.
im adding now the monthly+BB+Ichimoku
1. 10 days to end of the month
2. now price at top BB and if you look and the ICHI cloud (the future one) you see that the price was on a big R (the cloud is flat) on monthly,weekly and daily.
so yeah, maybe it will continue up, but as a trader i need to try it.
i hate to take a trade against all trends.
in this case i followed it all week, and now i decided to take it.
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  • #9,196
  • Nov 20, 2020 7:57am Nov 20, 2020 7:57am
EU
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  • #9,197
  • Nov 20, 2020 7:59am Nov 20, 2020 7:59am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Have no fear. The 0.5RN is here. {image}
Wow, that 5 min trade. There is nothing for years if I look left @my chart.
But it is friday night - gonna make a drink. Get rid of the fear and ... we all know how that ends up.
Markets will move to the right.
  • #9,198
  • Nov 20, 2020 8:01am Nov 20, 2020 8:01am
Quoting FraterRedox
{quote} Wow, that 5 min trade. There is nothing for years if I look left @my chart. But it is friday night - gonna make a drink. Get rid of the fear and ... we all know how that ends up.
The key is to understand what is going on at those round numbers and 0.5 round numbers. Once you see it, you'll be hunting these down wherever you can find them.

Slam it to BE and let see what happens.
  • #9,199
  • Nov 20, 2020 8:34am Nov 20, 2020 8:34am
Quoting FraterRedox
{quote} I zoomed in on big TF. I´m scared to take NU short atm, it might close bullish this week. {image}
Well, that's a counter trend play. So the probability of failure is more than a setup in the direction of the trend. But if it is done right it can be profitable.
I know you are an experienced trader, but I am gonna review some basic stuff for our newbies.

I am not talking about this trade in particular but in general. For each trade setup, you need to define three things in advance:
1) your SL (which also defines your % risk and the position size)
2) your TP (then you use your SL and TP to calculate the RRR)
3) the probability of that trade setup/ trading strategy (this basically means the win rate)

For example, let's assume, we are using for a counter trend setup with 30% success rate. We set SL @ 20 pips and TP of 80 pips (which gives you RRR 4:1).
Then we solve the following equation assuming you trade such setup for 100 times with 1% risk per trade:
(Win rate X profit) - (failure rate X loss) = (30 X 4%) - (70 X 1%)= 50%
So you basically make 50% return over 100 trades on a setup with 30% success rate.

But you know why most newbies lose money? because they use such setup, they close their winners with 10-20 pips and they keep their losing trades for too long. Even worse, they add to that losing trades in hope of averaging their price to have a b/e. That thing completely messes up the whole concept of profitability based on probabilities and RRR. So we can summarize these basic trading rules as follows:

Before the trade:
1) define your SL and % risk
2) define your TP
3) know the probability of your trade setup (this comes from back testing/forward testing and collecting your data)
When you are in the trade:
4) follow the plan, cut the loser short (respect your SL and don't move it. because as you know nothing can follow your SL more aggressively than price does!).
5) let the winners run (be patient with your TP)
6) don't ever add to a losing trade
  • #9,200
  • Nov 20, 2020 8:52am Nov 20, 2020 8:52am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote}For each trade setup, you need to define three things in advance
What a great post.

Also it helps to have a reliable precision entry that you will find right here with these levels of confluence.

You will be trading at areas of deep liquidity such as round numbers so you're entering at the same locations as the market makers. You can get rid of all fear and trade with confidence.

Also fib retracement levels (like 50 and 61.8) for trend pullbacks levels. Not every entry will work and that's not a problem at all with such solid RR.
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