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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #7,661
  • Nov 20, 2020 3:26am Nov 20, 2020 3:26am
Quoting Lock
As for the structure below we got B low at open and C low at half back: not good. But if it has reasons to continue higher sometime it can disregard poor initial participants. So let's see the real reaction at 32765
  • #7,662
  • Nov 20, 2020 3:31am Nov 20, 2020 3:31am
Quoting Lock
Now if this thing is only a chort covering of the initial Tokyo liquidation, 32765 could stop it. If instead we got something more we should get acceptation above 32765 and then we can test next level 32975
32975 next step to consider: even if not reached. We want to stay above overnight high 32875 and 32765 to continue higher obviously.
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  • #7,663
  • Nov 20, 2020 3:37am Nov 20, 2020 3:37am
Note that this is the third attempt toward 3319 during current November month: the first one it liquidated at 3314, the second one (11.18) it liquidated at 32975 (GB) and 3312 (PIT). This as written is the third one and 3319 has become weaker: but this does not mean they will not try to repeat what worked before...
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  • #7,664
  • Nov 20, 2020 3:39am Nov 20, 2020 3:39am
As written: traders do what worked before until it doesn't work anymore.
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  • #7,665
  • Nov 20, 2020 3:58am Nov 20, 2020 3:58am
D period again inside: balance rules. Watch out
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  • #7,666
  • Edited 5:05am Nov 20, 2020 4:19am | Edited 5:05am
Quoting Lock
Note that this is the third attempt toward 3319 during current November month: the first one it liquidated at 3314, the second one (11.18) it liquidated at 32975 (GB) and 3312 (PIT). This as written is the third one and 3319 has become weaker: but this does not mean they will not try to repeat what worked before...
full focus
  • #7,667
  • Nov 20, 2020 5:54am Nov 20, 2020 5:54am
Now, after all this nothing , the only thing sure is that value is building higher. and we got acceptation both above 32645 and 32765. We have 2 periods left before pre US open and again, we can wait for it or risk with a possible spike test.
In any case 3279, yes pit high is currently the level to consider in order to evaluate the possibility of new pit gap upside or an open inside yesterday pit range.
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  • #7,668
  • Nov 20, 2020 5:56am Nov 20, 2020 5:56am
Quoting Lock
D period again inside: balance rules. Watch out

btw it broke below balance and only managed to remove that C low at half back leaving in place the weak B low at open. I repeat it, the only new info is value building higher but with only 2 periods left for GB alone.
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  • #7,669
  • Nov 20, 2020 5:58am Nov 20, 2020 5:58am
Quoting Lock
{quote} btw it broke below balance and only managed to remove that C low at half back leaving in place the weak B low at open. I repeat it, the only new info is value building higher but with only 2 periods left for GB alone.

I mean it removed from the market a lot of weak buyers but not all of them. So I will not be surprised for a new liquidation to get them nor for a spike test upside disregarding them.
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  • #7,670
  • Nov 20, 2020 6:26am Nov 20, 2020 6:26am
Generally, and I'm telling it due to my experience, a so frantic movement happens before some important action. At the same time , also due to my experience, sometimes these frantic movements can prolong themselves in a way capable to keep out most of the traders from the market until the exact moment in which the important action will be performed.

So there's no shame at all to wake up during Monday morning only to find out that what should have happen is already happened in your absence. Markets are plenty of opportunities, generally a couple of them any single day, so, even if we will not get "that particular action", who cares?

See you later, maybe. And have a nice continuation.
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  • #7,671
  • Nov 20, 2020 8:35am Nov 20, 2020 8:35am
Quoting Lock
..In any case 3279, yes pit high is currently the level to consider in order to evaluate the possibility of new pit gap upside or an open inside yesterday pit range.
Pit opened only a couple of pips above 3279, test it and goes upside to test preUS. As you see it is the most relevant level for Pit. Now let's see if these new participants will be able to evade this ugly balance or if they will continue the same frantic up and down.
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  • #7,672
  • Nov 20, 2020 8:40am Nov 20, 2020 8:40am
other main refs for pit US are downside:
32735 highest pit unch of Nov
3267 11.18 pit unch
32625 yes pit unch
32595 pit 2019 close
3241 yesterday pit spike base
and so on... down to 31765 pit October high
while upside:
32925 overnight high (GB high)
3312 Nov pit high
3319 for any session
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  • #7,673
  • Nov 20, 2020 9:02am Nov 20, 2020 9:02am
Quoting Lock
..... The fact is that current week range is contained inside previous week range: if this will remain preserved until today close next week we will have balance rules applied on a weekly balance: again, it's to early to speak about that. .....

The real info here is that, as anticipated this early morning as a possibility, current GB week is an inside one in relation to previous GB week range: so we are already into balance rules, as any action above or below current GB inside week range has to be considered as an attempted breakout from balance, including any possible pit action, starting from...now.

...and 32925 overnight high (GB high) is the top of the GB inside week range... So any attempt above it, if any, is an initiative trade, or in other words, an attempted weekly breakout from balance.

Pit can opt to do nothing waiting for next week, or attempt a test above weekly balance before next week open. A conservative approach will be if pit will reverse downside into balance, a very aggressive approach will be if pit will attempt a rally today before close.
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  • #7,674
  • Nov 20, 2020 9:20am Nov 20, 2020 9:20am
32975 is the GB inside week high, it's the high of GB 11.18. Sorry for the mistake but nothing change at all of the concept I expressed.

And the GB weekly low is 31655.
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  • #7,675
  • Nov 20, 2020 9:30am Nov 20, 2020 9:30am
Quoting Lock
32975 is the GB inside week high, it's the high of GB 11.18. Sorry for the mistake but nothing change at all of the concept I expressed. And the GB weekly low is 31655.
...and it's testing it!!! Watch out as if it goes above it it will be an attempted rally upside, and if it will fail... it is a weekly balance!
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  • #7,676
  • Nov 23, 2020 12:39am Nov 23, 2020 12:39am
I save also here my posts on GBPUSD thread:

Quoting Lock
{quote} As written pit can or cannot attempt a very risky rally above GB weekly high 32975: if it will succeed next week we can see GB open out of weekly balance and at that moment in time we will know if the game was only to take out 3319 or something more....
Quoting Lock
{quote} If instead pit will not attempt above 32975 or if it will fail above it, next week GB can open inside current weekly balance and we will have to see which side of the balance it will want to test first. Also we have Sunday overnight that can do the job test for GB and/or pit

Eventually Sunday overnight did the job test above 32975 and it also took out 3319: Now, if GB will open above Friday GB high 32925 we will have a new GB gap upside from an inside weekly GB balance and this will mean attempted rally upside from balance:

  1. it can fail coming back below 32925 , obtaining acceptation below it and in that case we can see the weekly balance entirely retraced back to its low at 31655,

or

  1. it can succeed in which case we can aim at September high, next visible level upside (with tests at 31415 GB 2020 highest close, 34295 GB 2019 high) up to 3466 GB 2020 high (September high)

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  • #7,677
  • Nov 23, 2020 12:52am Nov 23, 2020 12:52am
I think the sell off has started.

Let's see how it will handle 1.3257 this time.

On Friday, it bounced off that level.

Let's see whether it can trade through it this time.
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  • #7,678
  • Nov 23, 2020 1:46am Nov 23, 2020 1:46am
Quoting pipcenturion
I think the sell off has started. Let's see how it will handle 1.3257 this time. On Friday, it bounced off that level. Let's see whether it can trade through it this time. {image}
PreUS Friday didn't manage to find acceptation below Pit 2019 close 32595: that is the level that preUS participants have not been able to force. And at 3257 they established a double tag, or in other words, a poor low: is a weak level when and if 32595 will be retested.

But now all the game is about GB levels: last business first.
3319 the notorious double high of September, 3314 current GB November high and Friday GB close/high 32925 are the most important levels before preUS and Pit open: there we will see if the game has been only to take out 3319 or if there is something more to test upside.
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  • #7,679
  • Nov 23, 2020 2:33am Nov 23, 2020 2:33am
3377 09.02 GB low (old gap downside low whose top is at 33935): this GB action is filling GB session 09.02

Very elongated profile. Attempted rally from weekly balance.
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  • #7,680
  • Nov 23, 2020 2:35am Nov 23, 2020 2:35am
B period low at 3350 round number: take note.
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