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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,121
  • Nov 18, 2020 10:11am Nov 18, 2020 10:11am
EG what about this demand
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  • #9,122
  • Edited 12:32pm Nov 18, 2020 12:11pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting C-12
GBPCAD setup. will chart up later but approaching the level @ 1.74 worth taking a look at it. Also added on USDCAD on LTF setup. {image} {image} {image}
GBPCAD - A swift one to 1.73 and possibly lower on this PA.

USDCAD and AUDUSD running nicely atm.

EURNZD - Long off 1.71, Base of H4 demand. 1.70 looks better though.
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  • #9,123
  • Nov 18, 2020 12:52pm Nov 18, 2020 12:52pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} GBPCAD - A swift one to 1.73 and possibly lower on this PA. USDCAD and AUDUSD running nicely atm. EURNZD - Long off 1.71, Base of H4 demand. 1.70 looks better though. {image} {image} {image}
Thanks for the GBPCAD, very good setup indeed.
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  • #9,124
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:02pm Nov 18, 2020 1:02pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks for the GBPCAD, very good setup indeed. {image}
Oh yes, that was nice. I am still easing my way into crosses as they move slightly differently to the majors. The RN's work better than expected.

They can certainly punish if you get on the wrong side of a trend though. That GBPCAD was a slam dunk.
  • #9,125
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:05pm Nov 18, 2020 1:05pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Oh yes, that was nice. I am still easing my way into crosses as they move slightly differently to the majors. The RN's work better than expected. They can certainly punish if you get on the wrong side of a trend though. That GBPCAD was a slam dunk.
Yea, that was my favorite type of trades. I call them one-touch trades. I actually got filled with a pending order. I was looking at another chart.
  • #9,126
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:11pm Nov 18, 2020 1:11pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, that was my favorite type of trades. I call them one-touch trades. I actually got filled with a pending order. I was looking at another chart.
I am also long on EURNZD at 1.71. There is demand here but it's 2nd time back to this round number, not quite AAA grade as that GBPCAD.

Also long on EURJPY triggered at 1.23. Counter trade.
  • #9,127
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:21pm Nov 18, 2020 1:21pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZUDSD, that pattern is no longer valid. I'm watching that R zone on weekly chart. {image}
NZDUSD, short trade
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  • #9,128
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:27pm Nov 18, 2020 1:27pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, long trade update. I'm watching 1.33 for a possible short setup {image}
GBPUSD, short trade. I'm pretty sure everyone on FF has this trade now.
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  • #9,129
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:32pm Nov 18, 2020 1:32pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, short trade. I'm pretty sure everyone on FF has this trade now. {image}
We can call this setup the shahab8b round number classic.

I am hoping EURUSD can go up and deliver 1.19 and put my long out of it's misery.
  • #9,130
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:39pm Nov 18, 2020 1:39pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} We can call this setup the shahab8b round number classic. I am hoping EURUSD can go up and deliver 1.19 and put my long out of it's misery.
Haha, round number, supply zone, and divergence on smaller tf. You've got all you need to pull the trigger. I read someone on the Cable thread said "buying 1.33 is risky and selling 1.33 is risky, so I'm staying out". I was like OK. So what's the point of trading forex if you can't take a calculated risk?
  • #9,131
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:45pm Nov 18, 2020 1:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Haha, round number, supply zone, and divergence on smaller tf. You've got all you need to pull the trigger. I read someone on the Cable thread said "buying 1.33 is risky and selling 1.33 is risky, so I'm staying out". I was like OK. So what's the point of trading forex if you can't take a calculated risk?
Thing is it's so simple the logical mind cannot understand it. Check out GCHF. In the last 2 weeks it's gone from 1.22 to 1.20 and now straight off 1.21 almost off the pip.

It almost works in a grid like structure. I feel more like a round number order manager than trader right now, shuffling orders around from one RN to the next RN.
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  • #9,132
  • Nov 18, 2020 1:54pm Nov 18, 2020 1:54pm
GBPUSD, a few notes for newbies. The trade was planned in advance based on the confluence of RN and supply zone. The RSI bearish divergence on M30 indicates price exhaustion. Don't trade the divergence on its own. That's a mistake newbies make a lot. You need to confirm it with pa and other technical factors. Then you move your SL to break even and let it play out. No one knows how far a trade can go. Use a good RRR. I used 20 pips sl for this trade. So the min tp is 60 pips giving a 3:1 RRR. If it goes up and take you out. No worried, there will always be another trade.
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  • #9,133
  • Nov 18, 2020 2:06pm Nov 18, 2020 2:06pm
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, a few notes for newbies. The trade was planned in advance based on the confluence of RN and supply zone. The RSI bearish divergence on M30 indicates price exhaustion. Don't trade the divergence on its own. That's a mistake newbies make a lot. You need to confirm it with pa and other technical factors. Then you move your SL to break even and let it play out. No one knows how far a trade can go. Use a good RRR. I used 20 pips sl for this trade. So the min tp is 60 pips giving a 3:1 RRR. If it goes up and take you out. No worried, there will...
I do something similar with stochastics indicator. It gives divergence info plus it also displays momentum shifts.

When it dips and crosses backup with a trend it's a good heads up it's about to continue (I have a red arrow that pops up when it crosses over).

I don't bother with any of the overbought oversold 80/20 readings. It's purely for momentum changes and divergence.
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  • #9,134
  • Nov 18, 2020 2:09pm Nov 18, 2020 2:09pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, short trade {image}
wonder when this spaceship will come back to earth.
2 hours to end of the day and it look like bullish engulfing candle.

i have a pending short on 0.6965 with 10 sl.
  • #9,135
  • Edited 2:32pm Nov 18, 2020 2:16pm | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting gatenio
{quote} wonder when this spaceship will come back to earth. 2 hours to end of the day and it look like bullish engulfing candle. i have a pending short on 0.6965 with 10 sl.
I think it's got a little more gas in the tank. Once it's ready it will be a rude awakening for this pair with some heavy PA. 0.70 would be the perfect level to do it.

I would still like to buy 0.69 if can grind back down to it.

I am hoping it does tank here as it will be helpful to give my EURNZD a needed kick.
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  • #9,136
  • Nov 18, 2020 2:46pm Nov 18, 2020 2:46pm
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  • #9,137
  • Nov 18, 2020 2:54pm Nov 18, 2020 2:54pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, short trade {image}
NZDUSD short trade update, that doji candle didn't disappoint
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  • #9,138
  • Nov 18, 2020 2:55pm Nov 18, 2020 2:55pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, it broke up. I'm thinking something like this. {image}
NZDUSD, follow-up with that forecast
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  • #9,139
  • Nov 18, 2020 2:58pm Nov 18, 2020 2:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, follow-up with that forecast {image} {image}
If you nailed the top with that PA it would be really something epic! I just watching the DX and some of the majors, especially USDCHF off 0.91

My EURUSD long got tapped for BE. Are we seeing another of those silent USD reversals kicking in here? Some reaction of this demand zone on H4.

Hmmm, Owould be very surprised if EURUSD 1.19 doesn't get hit, but maybe it's done.
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  • #9,140
  • Nov 18, 2020 3:04pm Nov 18, 2020 3:04pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} If you nailed the top with that PA it would be really something epic! I just watching the DX and some of the majors, especially USDCHF off 0.91 My EURUSD long got tapped for BE. Are we seeing another of those silent USD reversals kicking in here? Some reaction of this demand zone on H4. Hmmm, i would be very surprised if EURUSD 1.19 doesn't get hit before hand, but maybe it's done. {image}
That's one of my setups: combining doji with RSI divergence
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