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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,001
  • Nov 12, 2020 12:57pm Nov 12, 2020 12:57pm
USDCAD, round number playing as natural S and R. Use this simple technique for entry and tp.
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  • #9,002
  • Nov 12, 2020 1:06pm Nov 12, 2020 1:06pm
Gold, possible double bottom on H4. It is also sitting on S zone 1850-1860 on daily chart. A break below that S will be bearish. But if it holds, there is good upside potential.
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  • #9,003
  • Nov 12, 2020 1:34pm Nov 12, 2020 1:34pm
Quoting shahab8b
Gold, possible double bottom on H4. It is also sitting on S zone 1850-1860 on daily chart. A break below that S will be bearish. But if it holds, there is good upside potential. {image} {image}
I see gold as long term investment. Might be the last time we see the price around 1840. Very good occasion for a buy.
Fundamentals haven't changed for gold. More qe,and low interest rate are going to stay for long time
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #9,004
  • Nov 12, 2020 1:50pm Nov 12, 2020 1:50pm
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, possible rounding top on H4 {image}
AUDUSD, short trade. S and possible long setup @ 0.72 and 07150
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  • #9,005
  • Nov 12, 2020 1:51pm Nov 12, 2020 1:51pm
Quoting Bacco
{quote} I see gold as long term investment. Might be the last time we see the price around 1840. Very good occasion for a buy. Fundamentals haven't changed for gold. More qe,and low interest rate are going to stay for long time
Yea, you are right. I buy GLD (gold ETF) for long term play.
  • #9,006
  • Nov 12, 2020 2:04pm Nov 12, 2020 2:04pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, you are right. I buy GLD (gold ETF) for long term play.
GLD levels to buy if it drops. I have it from way lower levels but I added @ 175.
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  • #9,007
  • Nov 12, 2020 2:25pm Nov 12, 2020 2:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, round number playing as natural S and R. Use this simple technique for entry and tp. {image}
Great observation. Throw in a fib and a SD zone, A D1 bias and you've got an excellent setup.

Oddly enough even the 0.5 half RN's acting as S and R here.
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  • #9,008
  • Nov 12, 2020 2:34pm Nov 12, 2020 2:34pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} SPX, follow-up with that bearish flag. {image}
Hello Shahab, hi all,

with new restriction due to Covid, I have more time to stay at home, so I can spend it studing technical analysis, which I really like. And I saw that now I'm able to post on this nice thread

On S&P I have an analysis since many days, still waiting for the confirmation. It is about the triangle on Daily chart.
The first idea was for a triangle as continuation pattern, after the break, the target was above 3915. A pullback is quite common in this kind of pattern, and there was one on Tuesday. But after that, the market had no power to keep going up again. Yesterday was Bank Holiday, ok, but today nothing too.

The long pinbar made on Monday says a lot. If the price goes back inside the triangle, this is a false breakout, and the triangle fails. In this way we have also a possible triple top, and for this scenario the target is around 2960/2880.

Fundamental. The market lost Trump. As we know Trump imposed tariffs to China and Europe, it helped the US economy, less imports, better for locals...so, now the market is going to lose this benefit. A downward correction of the long climb of the last 4 years seems to me the most normal thing

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  • #9,009
  • Nov 12, 2020 2:38pm Nov 12, 2020 2:38pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, I don't like that +200 pips bullish engulfing candle. But the larger bearish pattern is not ruined yet. 106 remains the key level. {image}
USDJPY, short trade in line with the larger bearish bias.
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  • #9,010
  • Nov 12, 2020 2:43pm Nov 12, 2020 2:43pm
Quoting Bacco
{quote} I see gold as long term investment. Might be the last time we see the price around 1840. Very good occasion for a buy. Fundamentals haven't changed for gold. More qe,and low interest rate are going to stay for long time
Not sure about longer term gold but a bit of a kill zone at around $1,900 or a touch above.
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  • #9,011
  • Nov 12, 2020 2:52pm Nov 12, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting shahab8b
GU, maybe something like this. {image}
GU, follow-up with that forecast. I got the first 2 waves right (the first up move was a bit smaller than I thought though), let's see if the last wave plays out.

As a separate note, forecasting the price movement can never replace other high probability trading techniques (i.e. confluence levels, etc.) that we keep posting here. This is mostly for fun.
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  • #9,012
  • Edited 3:31pm Nov 12, 2020 3:14pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU, follow-up with that forecast. I got the first 2 waves right (the first up move was a bit smaller than I thought though), let's see if the last wave plays out. As a separate note, forecasting the price movement can never replace other high probability trading techniques (i.e. confluence levels, etc.) that we keep posting here. This is mostly for fun. {image} {image}
I traded GU and EG like a donkey these last 2 days, but with these confluence levels of fib and RN I got all my positions to BE and there's no damage done.

This is the key difference to trading PA candlestick PA like I used to. If you mess up on the entry with those you really get punished.

Yes, 1.31 @ 50% should provide a bounce and I will take it, but my reading is we may have entered a bigger bear cycle for next week, well at least for a while.

But you're right - Levels over forecasting but you sure nailed that one.
  • #9,013
  • Nov 12, 2020 3:37pm Nov 12, 2020 3:37pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I traded GU and EG like a donkey these last 2 days, but with these confluence levels of fib and RN I got all my positions to BE and there's no damage done. This is the key difference to trading PA candlestick PA like I used to. If you mess up on the entry with those you really get punished. Yes, 1.31 @ 50% should provide a bounce and I will take it, but my reading is we may have entered a bigger bear cycle for next week, well at least for a while. But you're right - Levels over forecasting but you sure nailed that one. ...
Yea, I know what you mean. Yesterday, it was clear to me today would be bearish. Other times it might not be that clear. For me this can drop another 100 pips to 1.30 and I will still consider it long term bullish. I'll be looking at 1.31, 1.3050, and 1.3 for possible long setups. This is not a place to go short. The nearest short play is 1.32.
  • #9,014
  • Nov 12, 2020 3:41pm Nov 12, 2020 3:41pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, I know what you mean. Yesterday, it was clear to me today would be bearish. Other times it might not be that clear. For me this can drop another 100 pips to 1.30 and I will still consider it long term bullish. I'll be looking at 1.31, 1.3050, and 1.3 for possible long setups. This is not a place to go short. The nearest short play is 1.32.
We should have our 50% fib line up a at 1.32 if 1.31 hold. That would be something to look forward to for next week.

I can see a possible kill zone on EURUSD for tomorrow above these highs with 50-61.8 and a 0.5 RN inside them.

Also interesting EURUSD bounced off 0.5 RN on that 50%.
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  • #9,015
  • Nov 12, 2020 3:50pm Nov 12, 2020 3:50pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} We should have our 50% fib line up a at 1.32 if 1.31 hold. That would be something to look forward to for next week. I can see a possible kill zone on EURUSD for tomorrow above these highs with 50-61.8 and a 0.5 RN inside them. {image}
Yea, in addition to 1.31 that I posted before. These are other levels for possible long and short trades. H4 is definitely bearish. That's why I wanted to get short again @ 1.32 today. But it didn't go that high.
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  • #9,016
  • Nov 13, 2020 3:25am Nov 13, 2020 3:25am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} SPX, follow-up with that bearish flag. {image}
SPX500 @ 3600 looks very interesting.
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  • #9,017
  • Nov 13, 2020 4:02am Nov 13, 2020 4:02am
GBPUSD - seems our 1.31 turned slightly ahead of schedule. 1.32 might be in play this afternoon.

Had confidence as EG and GCHF were both at quality levels. GBPCHF well worth a look as a perfect textbook setup.
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  • #9,018
  • Nov 13, 2020 4:19am Nov 13, 2020 4:19am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, I know what you mean. Yesterday, it was clear to me today would be bearish. Other times it might not be that clear. For me this can drop another 100 pips to 1.30 and I will still consider it long term bullish. I'll be looking at 1.31, 1.3050, and 1.3 for possible long setups. This is not a place to go short. The nearest short play is 1.32.
GBPUSD, long trade. Possible short setup @ 1.32
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  • #9,019
  • Nov 13, 2020 4:30am Nov 13, 2020 4:30am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, long trade. Possible short setup @ 1.32 {image}

what happened to your 3 lot long from yesterday?
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #9,020
  • Nov 13, 2020 4:32am Nov 13, 2020 4:32am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, long trade. I did some scalping short @ 1.18, but the pa remains unclear atm so I have closed them. A clear break above 1.1845 favors the bullish play. As pointed out in a previous post, EU remains in a very large trading range. And the price between 1.17 and 1.19 remains choppy. {image}
EURUSD, long trade update. That box might provide short setup
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