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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,981
  • Nov 12, 2020 6:51am Nov 12, 2020 6:51am
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD, possible double top on H1/H2 {image}
NZDUSD, short trade. I previously highlighted the importance of 0.69 on weekly chart. This was a good setup.
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  • #8,982
  • Nov 12, 2020 7:13am Nov 12, 2020 7:13am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I am also watching these levels (0.90 and 0.9025) on EURGBP for a possible short setup {image}
Yes, these look stronger i was too overly bullish on GBP pairs overall without allowing the properly retracements to play out.
  • #8,983
  • Nov 12, 2020 7:47am Nov 12, 2020 7:47am
Ok time to reload again. Better levels.
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  • #8,984
  • Nov 12, 2020 7:50am Nov 12, 2020 7:50am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, short trade. the bearish call proved correct. possible long setups @ 1.3130-40 and 1.31 {image}
GBPUSD, long trade. I'm giving out the exact levels for newbies so they can learn where to look at. I'll stop doing it at some point.
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  • #8,985
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:05am Nov 12, 2020 8:05am
GBPUSD, now I'm looking at 1.32 for a possible intraday short play.
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  • #8,986
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:10am Nov 12, 2020 8:10am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, now I'm looking at 1.32 for a possible intraday short play. {image}
are u so bullish on gbp?
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #8,987
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:13am Nov 12, 2020 8:13am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, now I'm looking at 1.32 for a possible intraday short play. {image}
Yes ranges are tightening up. EU specifically quite a tough read now and trapped between level.

GU D1 close will be interesting on red support line. Actually this can turn bearish for sure.

I am just playing intraday levels and zone right now and see what we get.
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  • #8,988
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:13am Nov 12, 2020 8:13am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} are u so bullish on gbp?
short term bearish, long term bullish.
  • #8,989
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:19am Nov 12, 2020 8:19am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes ranges are tightening up. EU specifically quite a tough read now and trapped between level. GU D1 close will be interesting on red support line. Actually this can turn bearish for sure. I am just playing intraday levels and zone right now and see what we get. {image}
Yea, I always find it easier to just play the levels as long as they give pips. it's really a mixed/range market at this moment. Just look at the EU daily chart for an example. We have been in a 400 pips range market for like 3-4 months.
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  • #8,990
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:21am Nov 12, 2020 8:21am
A good educational one I should have called out earlier but it's worth a look purely as reference chart.

We had S/R, RN and 50% all ingredients present for a high quality long setup on GBPCAD.
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  • #8,991
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:22am Nov 12, 2020 8:22am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, I always find it easier to just play the levels as long as they give pips. it's really a mixed/range market at this moment. Just look at the EU daily chart for an example. We have been in a 400 pips range market for like 3-4 months. {image}
Yes this is more productive than trying to swing the bat on a longer term holding position. Very often these trades come back to break even in these ranges.

If you have 80 - 120 pips running it's making sense to put those pips in the bank.
  • #8,992
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:44am Nov 12, 2020 8:44am
shahab8b, I have a question if you dont mind :
Where would you put the Fib retracement for a possible short setup on the chart here ? is 1 (yellow) or 2 (blue) correct ?
I'm guessing 1 would be wrong because it already retraced so much, and there was already a retracement from point A to a (to the pip btw) .5 fib

thank you
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  • #8,993
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:46am Nov 12, 2020 8:46am
SPX, looks like a bearish flag
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  • #8,994
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:53am Nov 12, 2020 8:53am
Quoting Tragruel
shahab8b, I have a question if you dont mind : Where would you put the Fib retracement for a possible short setup on the chart here ? is 1 (yellow) or 2 (blue) correct ? I'm guessing 1 would be wrong because it already retraced so much, and there was already a retracement from point A to a (to the pip btw) .5 fib thank you{image}
I draw it like this. I'll be looking at those boxes for a possible short setup. 1.32-1.3230 zone looks good for a short setup
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  • #8,995
  • Edited 9:17am Nov 12, 2020 9:04am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting Tragruel
shahab8b, I have a question if you dont mind : Where would you put the Fib retracement for a possible short setup on the chart here ? is 1 (yellow) or 2 (blue) correct ? I'm guessing 1 would be wrong because it already retraced so much, and there was already a retracement from point A to a (to the pip btw) .5 fib thank you{image}
Also note, I use an arbitrary scoring system that I developed myself for confluence levels: round number (score=2), W/D/H4 S/R (score=2), H1/M30/M15 S/R (score=1), fib levels (score=1), and weekly pivot (score=1). If you are going with the trend you add one score. If it is a counter trend, you subtract 1 score. You add up the scores and you get a total score. The higher the total score, the higher the confidence of that level.
  • #8,996
  • Nov 12, 2020 9:51am Nov 12, 2020 9:51am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, long trade. Pa is less than ideal for a long play. In fact there is short setup @ 1.18. Short term is bearish below 1.1845 {image}
EURUSD, long trade. I did some scalping short @ 1.18, but the pa remains unclear atm so I have closed them. A clear break above 1.1845 favors the bullish play. As pointed out in a previous post, EU remains in a very large trading range. And the price between 1.17 and 1.19 remains choppy.
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  • #8,997
  • Nov 12, 2020 9:55am Nov 12, 2020 9:55am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Also note, I use an arbitrary scoring system that I developed myself for confluence levels: round number (score=2), W/D/H4 S/R (score=2), H1/M30/M15 S/R (score=1), fib levels (score=1), and weekly pivot (score=1). If you are going with the trend you add one score. If it is a counter trend, you subtract 1 score. You add up the scores and you get a total score. The higher the total score, the higher the confidence of that level.
great stuff, and an idea of what is behind the charts ! thank you for sharing
  • #8,998
  • Nov 12, 2020 10:17am Nov 12, 2020 10:17am
yes sir, confluence with Weekly pivots are great tool
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  • #8,999
  • Nov 12, 2020 11:30am Nov 12, 2020 11:30am
AUDUSD, possible rounding top on H4
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  • #9,000
  • Nov 12, 2020 11:52am Nov 12, 2020 11:52am
Quoting shahab8b
SPX, looks like a bearish flag {image}
SPX, follow-up with that bearish flag.
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