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Rearden's Journal

  • #221
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:34am Nov 12, 2020 5:34am
I placed a #3b trade but I am not sure if this is part of the exercise that G mentioned. I haven't traded it as part of the exercise until now.

On a second thought I removed the PO. I will train myself to wait and let the price hold above my white line and wait for retrace to #2 and #3. this is what I have been doing until now for the exercise. I am not sure if adding another set up(which i have not taken until now) is my ETB in play. SO I will wait it out until the move changes to UP.
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  • #222
  • Nov 12, 2020 7:00am Nov 12, 2020 7:00am
Quoting Rearden
I placed a #3b trade but I am not sure if this is part of the exercise that G mentioned. I haven't traded it as part of the exercise until now. On a second thought I removed the PO. I will train myself to wait and let the price hold above my white line and wait for retrace to #2 and #3. this is what I have been doing until now for the exercise. I am not sure if adding another set up(which i have not taken until now) is my ETB in play. SO I will wait it out until the move changes to UP. {image}
you can test it so you can learn from it. But you have to do it every time and have a clear rule. So, in this case, you are testing an entry using the cross over and stay over and then a return to the s50, when there is a directional bias and the move switches from against the bias to with the bias.

That's how clear you need to be and you need to keep doing it until you get 10, 20, 30 or more of these and then see how it performed. Or do it for 4 months, 6, months a year. Just make sure it is time bound.

I would guess it is your ETB, but that is ok, you are recognizing the ETB in real time and questioning it. That's the real win. Remember, the pennies gained or lost in the exercise matter the least. They will take care of themselves as you learn to see what's going on in yourself and on the chart.
Be bullish on you.
  • #223
  • Nov 12, 2020 7:04am Nov 12, 2020 7:04am
Quoting Rearden
I placed a #3b trade but I am not sure if this is part of the exercise that G mentioned. I haven't traded it as part of the exercise until now. On a second thought I removed the PO. I will train myself to wait and let the price hold above my white line and wait for retrace to #2 and #3. this is what I have been doing until now for the exercise. I am not sure if adding another set up(which i have not taken until now) is my ETB in play. SO I will wait it out until the move changes to UP. {image}
Now, let's look at that picture of the tp you are using. Does that TP make sense?

Think about the entry. You are making a calculated guess that you are trying to catch early entry of the change in the move. Traditionally, when would you change the move? When it crosses the swing. So where would it make sense to put the TP?
Be bullish on you.
  • #224
  • Nov 12, 2020 8:24am Nov 12, 2020 8:24am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Now, let's look at that picture of the tp you are using. Does that TP make sense? Think about the entry. You are making a calculated guess that you are trying to catch early entry of the change in the move. Traditionally, when would you change the move? When it crosses the swing. So where would it make sense to put the TP?
My TP was very conservative. This is the time when we should try to stretch the profit because if the move changes, its in the early phases and it has potential to move further up. So the right TP should be around 1.1885-1.1900 area which is the next swing high.

So from this perspective it doesn't make much sense to keep the target there since we are expecting the move to change. For the move to change it should atleast hold above the white line. Once it goes above the white line probability of further up move increases.
  • #225
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:19pm Nov 12, 2020 5:19pm
13 Nov
Up BIAS Down move

Price has not changed to UP move yet. Today is Friday. I will not trade today and come back next week.
  • #226
  • Nov 13, 2020 9:58pm Nov 13, 2020 9:58pm
Weekly Summary 09 Nov to 13 Nov
======================

Over the last few days, I read from post 945 again and also reviewed my journal from the first. Each time I learn new things. It was already there, It makes more sense when you and reread those again and again with additional experience.

Reflecting on past two weeks vs the early OCT week (when it was slow market), I can see my desire to be in the trade.

Week before last, it was election week. I had good set up. But I didn't take any.

This week, it was up bias week and market was in a down move. So I didnt get a chance to trade.

I could have placed trades during election week. There was no problem to take those trades technically. But as I have not traded huge accounts, and experienced big wins or losses in thousands , I think I have not yet started to see it as a business. As a result of this, there is a constant need for action to feel that I am doing something.

So when I say I have to start thinking from a business perspective, no successful business makes money one day and then lose next day and repeat this cycle. I have to start thinking in a long term perspective where, preserving of capital is utmost priority. If I take wanted trades to feed the desire to trade, I am taking away capital which I can use to grow the account later.

easy to read " You have to learn to do nothing".... "its sitting on my hands that made me money" by livermoore etc.... I have to internalize it.

So when pressing that button to enter trade, I have to know what are the risks, what is going on in me and charts.

Early OCT I was in a trade and since market was not moving much, I got bored. This week and last, market was still ok, But I didnt trade. That has to be conscious decision and I have to be completely ok with it because that is a prudent business decision. Taking that conscious decision and being completely ok with it is also mark of confidence that, I can/will make money when the market give me the right opportunity.
  • #227
  • Nov 15, 2020 7:45pm Nov 15, 2020 7:45pm
16 November

No bias down move

New week. Looks like my #3b trade idea is working in the right direction. This time I am not part of it. But I will take note of this set up and look out for it in the future.
I will wait for the market to hold above 1842 to place a PO at #2 and #3. Waiting.

Its a no bias week. So I have to be careful about the repeated rejections in the previous swing highs at 1.19 area and then a move down.
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  • #228
  • Nov 15, 2020 10:45pm Nov 15, 2020 10:45pm
Update

The market held above. Since S50 and pivot are within 10 pips range, I placed an order at the pivot. I wanted to place an order at 1803 where the next two bar pull back happend. But I thought of pushing it even lower to try a #1 trade with TP at 1896.
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  • #229
  • Nov 16, 2020 8:13am Nov 16, 2020 8:13am
Quoting Rearden
Update The market held above. Since S50 and pivot are within 10 pips range, I placed an order at the pivot. I wanted to place an order at 1803 where the next two bar pull back happend. But I thought of pushing it even lower to try a #1 trade with TP at 1896. {image}
Update
Price is back to the down move. Removed the long PO. The best entry will be as close to 1868. That will be a #1 trade. If the price goes there and come down over night, I may not have an entry at the optimal location tommorow morning. But I can look for #2 and #3. Since its a 'no bias week-down move', if price opens above S50 and pivot I will enter straight away if the morning if its still in down move and price is around my white line.
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  • #230
  • Nov 16, 2020 4:55pm Nov 16, 2020 4:55pm
17 November

No Bias, down move

The price is above the S50 and Pivot. The price closed below the S50 yesterday, but immediately rejected and closed back above. This is not very favorable to the short side.

Anyway, I entered straight away as per the rules of the exercise. As the price is above the S50 and pivot I target where the price came from.

The price may go up to test the highs at 1.19 before coming down and I will close if price holds above the 1868.
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  • #231
  • Nov 17, 2020 8:28am Nov 17, 2020 8:28am
Quoting Rearden
17 November No Bias, down move The price is above the S50 and Pivot. The price closed below the S50 yesterday, but immediately rejected and closed back above. This is not very favorable to the short side. Anyway, I entered straight away as per the rules of the exercise. As the price is above the S50 and pivot I target where the price came from. The price may go up to test the highs at 1.19 before coming down and I will close if price holds above the 1868. {image}
I cut the loss when price closed above my white line. This was not a surprise that price would be going up to test the 1.19 especially when price was above S50.

Now, the market is in an interesting scenario. By holding above 1868 the market went to an up move. But it has went up till 1893 and is coming down. So as per the rules, I have to enter long from #2 and #3 tommorow. My white line now is at 1814 which is below S50. So it will become really interesting if the price comes down and close and hold below the S50 after testing that previous swing high area. Will it be starting of a down move? I am not yet sure.

I will stick to the rules and go long from #2, #3 until price holds below the 1814 area. A #1 long will also be good to reduce the risk.
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  • #232
  • Edited 5:07pm Nov 17, 2020 4:37pm | Edited 5:07pm
18 Nov

NO bias, UP move

Price opened between S50 and pivot. I entered a position straight away. Opening between the S50 and pivot has been profitable in the past(During up bias. This is a NO bias week). However, I am not sure about it in this scenario. I will observe what happens here.

As G had showed in his journal on better entries, I placed an entry close to the white line. If price triggers that entry and poke my white line, I will target the S50 and exit both the positions. If the price find support at the S50 and goes up, my current target will remain.
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  • #233
  • Nov 18, 2020 7:04am Nov 18, 2020 7:04am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} I cut the loss when price closed above my white line. This was not a surprise that price would be going up to test the 1.19 especially when price was above S50. Now, the market is in an interesting scenario. By holding above 1868 the market went to an up move. But it has went up till 1893 and is coming down. So as per the rules, I have to enter long from #2 and #3 tommorow. My white line now is at 1814 which is below S50. So it will become really interesting if the price comes down and close and hold below the S50 after testing that previous...
The best part of this is that you saw, in advance, that this entry was problematic. There is real power in this. Outside of the exercise you now know you can size down, or move entries to less risky locations, skip the trade, etc. Deploy risk reducing strategies.

How are you developing this skill? Doing the exercise.

When forced by rules to take every trade, you figure out real quick that every trade is not equal. Keep it up. The more you do the better you will get.
Be bullish on you.
  • #234
  • Nov 18, 2020 7:17am Nov 18, 2020 7:17am
Quoting Rearden
18 Nov NO bias, UP move Price opened between S50 and pivot. I entered a position straight away. Opening between the S50 and pivot has been profitable in the past(During up bias. This is a NO bias week). However, I am not sure about it in this scenario. I will observe what happens here. As G had showed in his journal on better entries, I placed an entry close to the white line. If price triggers that entry and poke my white line, I will target the S50 and exit both the positions. If the price find support at the S50 and goes up, my current target...
Don't get crazy with introducing ideas. You have to be able to manage ideas, be consistent with them, and that allows you to figure out which ones are good ideas and which bad. Introduce them one at a time, over a period of time. Get a feel for one idea before introducing another. The best thing s to characterize them.

Have a piece of paper with two columns. Bias and No Bias. Under each column have one idea that you work on. Right now, under Bias, you might be working the "early entry" idea from posts 220/221 above. And then No Bias, maybe you work through deeper/better entries. Or you can keep working the "where price closes" angle on bias and no bias weeks.

You get my point. Make sure you do this methodically. You are already seeing the benefits of entering methodically. You start seeing the chart better as I mentioned in the last post. I know you want to go fast, but slow is fast in this endeavor. Repetition is key.
Be bullish on you.
  • #235
  • Edited 8:36am Nov 18, 2020 8:25am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Don't get crazy with introducing ideas. You have to be able to manage ideas, be consistent with them, and that allows you to figure out which ones are good ideas and which bad. Introduce them one at a time, over a period of time. Get a feel for one idea before introducing another. The best thing s to characterize them. Have a piece of paper with two columns. Bias and No Bias. Under each column have one idea that you work on. Right now, under Bias, you might be working the "early entry" idea from posts 220/221 above. And then No Bias, maybe...
Yes G. I will keep a diary to journal on this. Methodical is important. It helps to give a structure to the summary and conclusion we arrive at by doing this exercise. At times, I try to go fast and get a bit confused and dont grasp what you are trying to show in full essence(I realise this when I revisit those post again and again). Yes, The urge and excitement to make it work fast is quite dominant.

On the other side, there is a self doubt too...Will it work for me? Will it work if I go slow? Am I doing enough? Am I spending enough chart time etc.
  • #236
  • Nov 18, 2020 8:35am Nov 18, 2020 8:35am
Quoting Rearden
18 Nov NO bias, UP move Price opened between S50 and pivot. I entered a position straight away. Opening between the S50 and pivot has been profitable in the past(During up bias. This is a NO bias week). However, I am not sure about it in this scenario. I will observe what happens here. As G had showed in his journal on better entries, I placed an entry close to the white line. If price triggers that entry and poke my white line, I will target the S50 and exit both the positions. If the price find support at the S50 and goes up, my current target...
Looking back at the post today morning.

After the post, I went ahead and revisited the post where G was showing better entries during the last week of OCT to see if I was doing something similar. I found that, even though it was a no bias week, the whole scenario was different. Especially in comparison where S50 was. Unlike now, the price was ranging for few days back then where he attempted those entries near white line. Here the price comes to S50, test it and travels away from it. And Price has not held below the S50 for few days.

So, now I think it was better to go for a #2 and #3 trade than a better entry type of trade today morning. I am not trying to derive any conclusion out of this single instance. I will take note of this and keep a note of it. I am happy that I did what I did today morning. So I could revisit the post and spend some time thinking about time to look for better entries and time to go with #2,#3 trades.
  • #237
  • Nov 18, 2020 9:02am Nov 18, 2020 9:02am
I am not sure If this is me over thinking. But I am sharing my thoughts for comments if incase I am going in any wrong direction.

I placed the target for today morning trade at 1.19 BRN. The price went till 1890 and came down. I didn't take profit. The reason why I didnt take profit is because i saw a repeating pattern in this weeks action.

On Monday price broke the white line, made a new high(1868) > came back to S50 >went up to test the new high >came back to pivot/S50 and> then broke the 1868 level and made a new high and held above. Also, The market has not made any new LLs etc which is a red flag for my current Long trade.

On the other side, This is a week with no directional bias and price is near the previous highs at 1.19 BRN and testing that level repeatedly. When price was testing 1868 and broke that level, price had room to travel higher. Not that it cant break the 1.19 level. I will stick to the rules now and bring down my target to 1890 area tomorrow morning.

I dont think its the ego trying to see if my target is hit to prove myself right rather than be profitable. But me trying to be patient to see if price will work out in favour. I think the only solution to the dilemma is doing the exercise repeatedly and take down the results and notes over a period of time.
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  • #238
  • Nov 18, 2020 10:42am Nov 18, 2020 10:42am
Quoting Rearden
I am not sure If this is me over thinking. But I am sharing my thoughts for comments if incase I am going in any wrong direction. I placed the target for today morning trade at 1.19 BRN. The price went till 1890 and came down. I didn't take profit. The reason why I didnt take profit is because i saw a repeating pattern in this weeks action. On Monday price broke the white line, made a new high(1868) > came back to S50 >went up to test the new high >came back to pivot/S50 and> then broke the 1868 level and made a new high and held above. Also, The...
Follow the rules first, and then if you have defined bigger targets as something you want to test, test it. If not, don't.
Be bullish on you.
  • #239
  • Nov 18, 2020 5:27pm Nov 18, 2020 5:27pm
19 Nov

NO Bias, Up move,

the White line was moved to aggressive swing area. This is not aggressive swing in terms of the aggressive swings during "Bias" weeks. G had talked earlier on this on seeing ahead of time where the swing would go next and being proactive. Considering where price is now, it also helps with cutting the loss quickly without waiting till the conservative swing.

The price came down from the 1890 area twice and then made a two bar pull back and came down again and held below S50.

Today, as per the rules I entered straight away with target at the top of two bar pull back because that is where the price came down from. I will exit if price hold below the 1842 line
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  • #240
  • Nov 18, 2020 5:30pm Nov 18, 2020 5:30pm
Quoting Rearden
19 Nov NO Bias, Up move, the White line was moved to aggressive swing area. This is not aggressive swing in terms of the aggressive swings during "Bias" weeks. G had talked earlier on this on seeing ahead of time where the swing would go next and being proactive. Considering where price is now, it also helps with cutting the loss quickly without waiting till the conservative swing. The price came down from the 1890 area twice and then made a two bar pull back and came down again and held below S50. Today, as per the rules I entered straight away...
Not sure what you mean, aggressive swing area. That is simply the swing. Unless i screwed up moving the swing, which is entirely possible as I struggle to run G home school academy for the kids and trade.
Be bullish on you.
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