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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #7,401
  • Nov 11, 2020 3:25am Nov 11, 2020 3:25am
Quoting Lock
{quote} well too easy prediction isn't it? Now let's see this rally..
If it will not manage to take out 3319 I suppose a liquidation will occur. Maybe toward yes GB close 3234. If it will do it I will be a little surprised anyhow.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #7,402
  • Nov 11, 2020 3:38am Nov 11, 2020 3:38am
Quoting Lock
{quote} If it will not manage to take out 3319 I suppose a liquidation will occur. Maybe toward yes GB close 3234. If it will do it I will be a little surprised anyhow.
Sometimes I really hate to be right
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  • #7,403
  • Nov 11, 2020 3:42am Nov 11, 2020 3:42am
And please, subscribe me, if you like my notes...
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  • #7,404
  • Nov 11, 2020 3:45am Nov 11, 2020 3:45am
Now if it will not be able to stay below yes GB close 3234 nothing happened at all and we will retake all this liquidation back to 3319. If instead we will see price accepted below 3234 this will change the situation and this can become something more serious.
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  • #7,405
  • Nov 11, 2020 4:12am Nov 11, 2020 4:12am
3272 yes GB high: it has been rejected from below: watch out. If we get acceptation below it next is 3234 for sure to test at least.
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  • #7,406
  • Nov 11, 2020 4:14am Nov 11, 2020 4:14am
32525 overnight low: again, acceptation needed below it for continuation toward 3234. If not...
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  • #7,407
  • Nov 11, 2020 4:15am Nov 11, 2020 4:15am
And, more than anything, monitor value in relation to yesterday GB value.
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  • #7,408
  • Nov 11, 2020 4:26am Nov 11, 2020 4:26am
E inside period: balance rules apply
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  • #7,409
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:01am Nov 11, 2020 5:01am
Quoting Lock
E inside period: balance rules apply
And F is inside E... balance still intact for now.
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  • #7,410
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:01am Nov 11, 2020 5:01am
Quoting Lock
{quote} And F is inside E... balance still intact for now.
attempted rally above F high
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  • #7,411
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:06am Nov 11, 2020 5:06am
We got only 4 periods for current GB session: value will have a hard time to move any lower in relation to yesterday GB value. Take note.
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  • #7,412
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:07am Nov 11, 2020 5:07am
Quoting Lock
We got only 4 periods for current GB session: value will have a hard time to move any lower in relation to yesterday GB value. Take note.
I mean, if we will consolidate here, value can end at max overlapping to yesterday value. Look: we never saw a single period closed below yes GB close 3234: how can value develop below it? This does not mean it cannot test it or go even lower, it means that price is acting again against value action. And we trade value, not price.
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  • #7,413
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:43am Nov 11, 2020 5:43am
Quoting Lock
{quote} attempted rally above F high
failed, back to the opposite side of it, in theory. But as said, value is still overlapping to higher. It's bank holiday, so I'll be off till tomorrow. Have a nice trading*. Best.

*I will not.
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  • #7,414
  • Nov 11, 2020 7:54am Nov 11, 2020 7:54am
Quoting Lock
{quote} failed, back to the opposite side of it, in theory. But as said, value is still overlapping to higher. It's bank holiday, so I'll be off till tomorrow. Have a nice trading*. Best. *I will not.
Me to taking it easy here
  • #7,415
  • Edited 1:13am Nov 12, 2020 1:02am | Edited 1:13am
Yesterday we saw EMOTIONS at work. And when you see emotions at work you have to translate them into opportunities.

When I wrote that if GB was not able to take out 3319 a liquidation could have occurred (and btw I think I've been the only one in forexfactory to have announced this possibility at the exact place and moment in time in which this could have occurred)...

Quoting Lock
{quote} If it will not manage to take out 3319 I suppose a liquidation will occur. Maybe toward yes GB close 3234. If it will do it I will be a little surprised anyhow.
...I wrote it because I was observing the struggling attempt to reach it plus the very poor structure left downside in such an attempt: that was an opportunity. But then, that liquidation continue lower making a final test of previous GB session close at 3224 (that I also announced when I wrote that we have got acceptation below previous session high 3272)...

Quoting Lock
3272 yes GB high: it has been rejected from below: watch out. If we get acceptation below it next is 3234 for sure to test at least.
and it did it going against value and furthermore preUS and PIT (without bank support) continued lower as Tokyo this night.

So what? Unless some big money will pile on yesterday move downside and unless next GB session will gain acceptation back into October GB range (below 3150) odds will be in favor to a serious correction upside in order to remove 32235, 3278, 3297 and eventually 3319.

But, as always, take this market a piece at a time and consider that structure downside is extraordinary weak so evaluate the reaction of market participants at any important level and if something will go against our magical plan, we must have an other one READY to do something different or eventually exactly the opposite of our plan..

If in fact we will see clear and easy acceptation below 3150 by upcoming GB session well in this case we will be able to start speaking about a possible failure of this attempted rally above monthly balance and in this case, as balance rules apply, we may see the opposite side of October as a possible target.

Main refs for GB from top to bottom:
Yes GB spike test base 3250 (fundamental level if reached)
Yes GB close 3203
2019 GB close 3194
GB inside October month high 3150
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  • #7,416
  • Nov 12, 2020 4:33am Nov 12, 2020 4:33am
3200 and 32285 are both incredibly weak. If it will go down without removing them, take note
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  • #7,417
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:00am Nov 12, 2020 5:00am
F inside period: balance rules
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  • #7,418
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:10am Nov 12, 2020 5:10am
Now 3203 is yesterday GB close: if it rally you want to get acceptation above it, for continuation. If not, watch out for correction.
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  • #7,419
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:42am Nov 12, 2020 5:42am
If this thing will continue lower, unless some exogenous event, we will have exponential reasons to come back upside.
Current GB high poor 3200 round number, yes pit poor high 32245, back to back Sydney high with TOkyo high 32285, 3278 Tuesday pit poor high, old pit poor high at 3297 and eventually 3319 old GB highs back to back...
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  • #7,420
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:58am Nov 12, 2020 5:58am
3150 if reached* is the main level: watch out there. *also if not reached...
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