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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

Fti,

I wanted to thank you for our discussion about sigma and how its measured by the gradient/slope of the move. I have gone back and searched the thread for discussions on sigma/gradient/slope. although you hinted at it and mentioned it several times it seems it wasnt discussed much by the others. From what I've gathered is if the gradient slope is >45 degrees it is a significant move and if its 30 degrees or less it is weak (i know these statements seem obvious =). My question is...how is this slope measured? by the lows of an up trend and highs of a down trend? is there a tool you use to accurately measure the slope or is it visually guestimated?
Quoting dbrown101
Fti, I wanted to thank you for our discussion about sigma and how its measured by the gradient/slope of the move. I have gone back and searched the thread for discussions on sigma/gradient/slope. although you hinted at it and mentioned it several times it seems it wasnt discussed much by the others. From what I've gathered is if the gradient slope is >45 degrees it is a significant move and if its 30 degrees or less it is weak (i know these statements seem obvious =). My question is...how is this slope measured?
You can measure any linear chart or any bar chart from its hip and lops . Start of any impluse waves.

Regards
Quoting dbrown101
Fti, is there a tool you use to accurately measure the slope or is it visually guestimated?
Are you mad?
You talk accuracy and guestimates in same sentence.

Go to

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Go to instruments section.
Eeeeer non dildo section.
Look for this.

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https://www.wikihow.com/Use-a-Protractor
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It's hitting the fan.

BBC News - Bitcoin: $1bn address with Silk Road links 'being transferred'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54810976
Ant hits fan. No bucket.
BBC News - Jack Ma's Ant Group: World's biggest market debut suspended
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Profit sharing model?

Turkey fines social media companies $1.18 million for failing to comply with new content removal law https://www.rt.com/news/505582-turke...fined-content/

New income scheme. Very creative models.
See lips fine 1000.
Show buttock instead.

World is changing fast.
Soon here no more music.
They planning pay you listen music. Hahahaha. Youlube will go bloke.
And we will make millions listen all sort shit.

Ok how much you pay me watch your shitty movies.
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And you will write good ......if you know what's good for you pockets.
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Oooops recount.
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Quoting fti
{image}
Singapore stocks are finally rallying from lows, yesterday and today. time to get out prison
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Singapore stocks are finally rallying from lows, yesterday and today. time to get out prison
Thank you to em let your money out of prison.
Now have more discipline money. Hahahaha
Jacque.

Regards
Uoooo wah

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Warning good chain infections.
Food chain la stupid spelling checker.

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Is it the end?
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Quoting dbrown101
Fti, I wanted to thank you for our discussion about sigma and how its measured by the gradient/slope of the move. I have gone back and searched the thread for discussions on sigma/gradient/slope. although you hinted at it and mentioned it several times it seems it wasnt discussed much by the others. From what I've gathered is if the gradient slope is >45 degrees it is a significant move and if its 30 degrees or less it is weak (i know these statements seem obvious =). My question is...how is this slope measured? by the lows of an up trend and highs...
Angles will change when screen/chart size changes. Try using the %difference of price/ma as a slope value.
Quoting Spikehunter
{quote} Angles will change when screen/chart size changes. Try using the %difference of price/ma as a slope value.
thank you spike hunter. I was meaning to write a reply about this but you beat me to it! The angles change as you zoom in and out of the time frames so I was still pondering a way to read the slope. Fti and I did have a discussion about the ATR of a leg and how it indicates the volitility/Vega and that can also indicate speed of move and whether the trend is losing steam.

Quote
Try using the %difference of price/ma as a slope value

Im not quite clear on this but i think you are suggesting to measure the % from one point to another(from hip to lop?) and note the % change and benchmark that for the next move to see if it increases or decrease? also you meantioned MA and I think noting the distance from current price level to the MA can indicate whether price volitility is increasing or decreasing.
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} thank you spike hunter. I was meaning to write a reply about this but you beat me to it! The angles change as you zoom in and out of the time frames so I was still pondering a way to read the slope. Fti and I did have a discussion about the ATR of a leg and how it indicates the volitility/Vega and that can also indicate speed of move and whether the trend is losing steam. {quote} Im not quite clear on this but i think you are suggesting to measure the % from one point to another(from hip to lop?) and note the % change and benchmark that...
Yes that's basically what I was suggesting. I have tried a weighted Moving Average based on Weighted Close as this gives something close to a Regression point. I used TMA initially but that repaints but while I think its more accurate over the last 6 data points its not great for eyeball back testing.

I don't know if you can code, but this is reasonably self explanatory.

It uses a 21 period TMA and compares data point 1 to 5 bars previous data point 6. The *10000 is just to get a sensible number. This is reasonably processor intensive and shouldn't be calculated every tick. I have it calculated hourly.

if(Hour()!=CalcHour)
{CalcHour=Hour();
double TMA1=iCustom(NULL,60,"TMA",60,21,6,1.618,0,6);
double TMA2=iCustom(NULL,60,"TMA",60,21,6,1.618,0,1);
double TMA1=iMA(NULL,60,21,0,MODE_SMMA,PRICE_CLOSE,6);
double TMA2=iMA(NULL,60,21,0,MODE_SMMA,PRICE_CLOSE,1);
double TMAStrength= ((TMA1-TMA2)/TMA1)*10000 ;
}

Of course there's a million ways to do this and it's just something I had been working on. I am searching for the "great" trend indicator which I may never find, but hey ho that doesn't matter.

Oh by the way, I did originally use the ATR to define how fast something should be moving and then just opted for a straight percentage. In hindsight movement against ATR might be better. e.g ATR=10 so after 5 bars the max expected move would be 50. If price has only moved 25 pips then 50% relative movement. I am not a mathematician so my ideas a reasonably basic, but at least I can code most stuff.

Not sure if this rambling helps but you are welcome to ask more or offer any suggestion we can code.

Editted
If you were to use 2 periods of comparison i.e. 5 & 21 data points (based on the same 21period TMA) you would see accelerating and slowing of price.
The Chinese Communist system.
How dare you, speak against it.
Phinish.
The emperor acts.
Gifts, lots, if you know what's good for yous.

No discipline brain.don't know when to talk when to keep quiet.
Use brain.

https://reut.rs/3esgWev
  • Post #62,898
  • Quote
  • Edited Nov 7, 2020 1:42am Nov 6, 2020 11:21pm | Edited Nov 7, 2020 1:42am
Quoting Spikehunter
{quote} Yes that's basically what I was suggesting. I have tried a weighted Moving Average based on Weighted Close as this gives something close to a Regression point. I used TMA initially but that repaints but while I think its more accurate over the last 6 data points its not great for eyeball back testing. I don't know if you can code, but this is reasonably self explanatory. It uses a 21 period TMA and compares data point 1 to 5 bars previous data point 6. The *10000 is just to get a sensible number. This is reasonably processor intensive and...
You no have thread. Need hijack someone else's injecting you rubbish?

Sell u programming skills elsewhere.
This is a trading skills thread.

After you got enough skills write a proper trading platform, then you try sell it.
No give us half Pass six codes that fails.
Rubbish.
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} thank you spike hunter. I was meaning to write a reply about this but you beat me to it! The angles change as you zoom in and out of the time frames so I was still pondering a way to read the slope. Fti and I did have a discussion about the ATR of a leg and how it indicates the volitility/Vega and that can also indicate speed of move and whether the trend is losing steam. {quote} Im not quite clear on this but i think you are suggesting to measure the % from one point to another(from hip to lop?) and note the % change and benchmark that...
There are 2 types brains.
The discipline brain, learns.
The no discipline brain just speaks.

The no discipline brain, never able follow instructions.
Don't believe?
Just ask no discipline brain.
Sleep now
It will never follow.
Instead it will talk all sorts shit.
Just try" sleep now".

Mostly, the no discipline brain is trained by education system climb trees.
When no trees to climb , will hijack others trees.

Try add shit while cooking, you may like its taste.
Own shit is most tasty. Otherwise add own urine.
  • Post #62,900
  • Quote
  • Edited Nov 7, 2020 1:59am Nov 6, 2020 11:37pm | Edited Nov 7, 2020 1:59am
The communist system in us seems collapsing.
Rise and fall of dictators.
Let's see if same replaces same?
Only time.

If can't prove its good and beneficial, just show the guns. They will comply. Dang communist mind. Bomb them into submission. Fear will work it's magic.
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